Kickoff: Sunday, December 26, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Betting Odds: NE -2.5, 43.5 Total on Vegas Insider
Network: CBS
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
After spraining his foot in Week 14, we saw Josh Allen only run the ball three times in Week 15 against the Panthers. However, with them leading by multiple scores for most of the game, this was mainly a precautionary approach. I’d expect Allen to be utilized more as a runner in a game that could decide the AFC East. The rushing combined with the passing volume gives him a floor that is matchup-proof, so I’d still have him as a top-five quarterback even against the Patriots.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, Low-End RB2/High-End RB3), Matt Breida (Sit, Low-End RB4)
Quietly, a Bills running back has emerged as someone you can start moving forward. For the second week in a row, Devin Singletary saw exceptional usage:
- 92.85% of the Snaps
- 84.6% of the Rush Attempts
- 69.23% of the Routes
As long as Zack Moss continues to be a healthy scratch, this is a two-man backfield that is being dominated by Singletary. Even in a game where the Bills could score fewer points than normal, it’s hard to not start the alpha running back of one of the league’s most productive offenses.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabriel Davis (Start If You Must, WR3/FLEX), Cole Beasley (Sit, Low-End WR3), Dawson Knox (Start, TE1)
You’re starting Stefon Diggs every week hopefully, while Dawson Knox continues to play well over 80% of the snaps. The main focus here is Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley. Davis has seen greater target shares and productivity against man coverage, which is what Buffalo has had to deal with. Furthermore, he’s had 7+ targets in back-to-back games, and continues to be the team’s featured pass catcher in the red zone. The matchup in terms of talent isn’t ideal, but I’d still feel comfortable starting Davis in my FLEX spot.
New England Patriots
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones (Sit, QB2)
Although he had to attempt 45 passes in a losing game script, Mac Jones will likely revert to being the orchestrator of a run-heavy attack against a suspect Bills run defense in a lower-scoring game. With no rushing production and limited passing volume, Jones remains someone who is only a viable option in deep SuperFlex leagues.
Running Backs
Damien Harris (Start If You Must, High-End RB3), Rhamondre Stevenson (Sit, Low-End RB3), Brandon Bolden (Sit, Low-End RB4)
By all indications, Damien Harris should be back for this game, making this a three-way committee where Brandon Bolden vultures the valuable passing down snaps. The team still seems to prefer Harris, particularly in the red zone, but Rhamondre Stevenson will rotate with him. I’d try to avoid this situation altogether, but if you have to start one, it’d be Harris.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Sit, High-End WR4), Kendrick Bourne (Sit, Low-End WR4) Nelson Agholor (Sit, High-End WR6), Hunter Henry (Start If You Must, High-End TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit, TE3)
With limited passing volume, it is difficult to start any of the Patriots’ pass catchers. That being said, I liked what I saw from Hunter Henry was week. The veteran tight end played over 80% of the team’s snaps, in addition to 83% of the routes. Some of this is due to game script, but when the Patriots are in the red zone, Jones is likely going to look Henry’s way. The Bills defense is tough against tight ends, and New England is likely to attack them with a run-heavy approach. That being said, if there is a pass catcher you could start, it’s Henry.
All Stats via Pro Football Focus