Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 25th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Betting Odds: ARI -1, 49 total via Oddsshark
Network: NFLN
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (Sit)
Carson Wentz has shown he can put up high-level fantasy numbers but the Colts would prefer to pound the opposition with a potent rushing attack and a defense that is solid at all levels and takes advantage of mistakes. Over the last five games, Wentz has just one game with multiple TD passes and more than 300 passing yards and they both occurred in the team’s last loss to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is known for having a stout run defense and Wentz was tasked with piloting a passing attack that kept the game close. Arizona presents a considerably easier challenge on the ground ranking in the middle of the NFL with 112 yards allowed per game. The game should remain close, which should lead to better passing numbers than the past two weeks, but I can’t see Wentz sneaking into the top 12 with how much the Colts utilize the running game. Pass on Wentz in Week 16.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Nyheim Hines (Sit)
I talked about how much Indianapolis likes to utilize the running game to control the clock and wear down the defense, so it would stand to reason Jonathan Taylor is at the top of my RB rankings. Taylor has arguably assumed the role of most valuable fantasy RB as he leads the NFL in carries (280), rushing yards (1,518), and rushing TDs (17) and has chipped in some work in the passing game as well (39-336-2). Last week, in Arizona’s loss to Detroit, the Cardinals allowed Craig “Netflix” Reynolds to rumble for 112 yards and I think we can all agree Taylor is a more accomplished RB than Reynolds. Here’s an early Christmas present for you: Taylor is a set-and-forget RB1 this week.
Typically a PPR darling, Nyheim Hines has seen his usage dip with the stellar play of Taylor and it has made him almost useless except for in the direst of circumstances. Hines has seen fewer than 20 snaps in three of Indianapolis’s last four games and has amassed just 15 touches over that span. Taylor is playing too good to trust Hines this late in the season and he should be benched this week unless injuries and COVID have decimated your RB corps.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman (Start, WR2), Zach Pascal (Sit), T.Y. Hilton (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit)
I’m not a fan of the passing offense of the Colts, but when a player commands such a large target share it’s hard to ignore him. Michael Pittman has 104 targets on the season and is nearly 40 targets ahead of the second most targeted player. Pittman has been a reliable option for Wentz and gives the team a physical threat at the position that has no trouble fighting for contested catches. Pittman isn’t likely to post eye-popping numbers but is the best option on a low-volume passing offense and should see enough opportunities to turn in a WR2 performance in Week 16.
The best years of T.Y. Hilton’s career are behind him and Zach Pascal’s may be ahead of him but neither is an enticing option this week as tertiary options in the offense. Hilton missed the first part of the season and important reps with Wentz as the new QB of the team. The rapport isn’t there yet and Wentz has shown a tendency to look elsewhere first. Hilton was a WR1 but he’s no more than depth now. Sit him this week.
Pascal had a good start to the season with three TDs in the first two games but has recently been nearly nonexistent with six receptions over the last five games and a total of just 50 yards. Pascal is too far down the passing pecking order to move the needle for fantasy managers and he’s an easy sit on Saturday.
Much like Hilton, Jack Doyle might be remembered fondly by fantasy managers for his exploits in the recent past. Doyle has been a fixture on the end of the line in Indianapolis for years but saw his playing time dip over the past couple of seasons. Doyle has flashed as recently as Week 12 when he had 6 receptions for 81 yards and a TD, but that is looking more and more like an outlier than the start of a trend. Wentz and the Colts simply don’t pass enough to support multiple weapons and Doyle is a casualty as a result. Again, pass on this pass catcher in Week 17.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (Start, QB1)
What in the name of Josh Rosen happened to the Cardinals last week? Arizona walked into Ford Field with a chance to secure a playoff berth and left on the wrong side of a 30-12 score. Kyler Murray looked a bit lost without Deandre Hopkins and suffered through his lowest completion percentage game of the season. The task won’t get any easier against an Indianapolis defense that leads the NFL in turnover margin at +14. A poor passing performance from Murray doesn’t submarine his fantasy value, however, because of the upside his rushing ability provides. This projects to be a close game throughout and should propel Murray into the middle of the QB1 ranks this week. Fantasy managers should continue to trust him as their starter this week.
Running Backs
James Conner (Start, RB3/Flex), Chase Edmonds (Start, RB2)
As of this writing late Wednesday night, I don’t know any more about the probability of James Conner playing than we did following Sunday’s loss. Conner played last week despite a nagging ankle injury and then suffered a heel injury sometime during the game. With a slightly shorter week and a Christmas-day game, there is a chance Conner will play but there is no way to know how much the compounding injuries will affect his play. If Conner can practice over the next two days, consider him an RB3 with upside but understand the risk of a re-aggravation of either injury could keep him off the field more than he’s on it. If I had a more secure option, I’d probably sit Conner this week but his performance this season makes that hard to do. I’ll try and update this post if/when more information becomes available throughout tomorrow and Saturday. THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE: Conner is a true game-time decision and is officially listed as questionable for this weekend. Conner expressed he’s “confident” he’ll be able to go against the Colts. Still no clarity here, but it’s a Saturday game so fantasy managers should have plenty of options to choose from if they need to.
It was nice to see Chase Edmonds back on the field for Arizona and he was able to outproduce Conner on fewer touches. As mentioned, Conner was dealing with injuries that could have hampered his production, but Edmonds escaped from the Detroit game unscathed and might see a larger role this week if Conner is limited. Edmonds commanded nearly 70% of the snaps before his injury and I think there’s a good chance he returns to that same workload this week to give Conner a break and time to heal further for a potential playoff run. The Colts have been good against the run this season, sans Leonard Fournette’s four-TD game a few weeks ago, and Murray is still a threat to vulture a TD when the team gets close. I’d consider Edmonds a solid RB2 with RB1 upside if Conner is limited or ruled out this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Kirk (Start, WR2), A.J. Green (Start, WR3/Flex), Rondale Moore (Sit), Zach Ertz (Start, TE1)
I realize we’re only dealing with a one-game sample, but, without Hopkins, Christian Kirk led the Cardinals in targets (12), receptions (9), receiving yards (94), and scored Arizona’s only TD last week. That’s a pretty clear indicator of the role he may see for as long as Hopkins is sidelined and it’s one fantasy managers will want to take advantage of. Kirk has quietly had a pretty solid season, though he will throw in an occasional one-catch dud which is frustrating when considering him as a fantasy starter. Kirk should have a much more defined role as the season winds down and should be able to return at least WR2-level production for your fantasy team in Week 16.
Much like Kirk, it should be expected that A.J. Green would see an increased role in Arizona’s passing attack without Hopkins on the field and Green provided a solid day last week with four catches for 64 yards. Green also saw his second-most targets in any game this season last week which is music to the ears of fantasy managers who may have to rely on him during the fantasy playoffs. Green is not the dominant player he was in Cincinnati but still possesses enough savvy to get open in clutch situations and is a decent red-zone option for Murray. I don’t think Green provides quite the upside Kirk does week in and week out but he should be good for WR3 status this week.
Rondale Moore has provided some spark and flash to the Arizona WR corps with his speed and open-field elusiveness but has struggled to put it all together for any length of time this season. Moore has single-digit receiving yards in each of Arizona’s last three games and is now dealing with an ankle injury of unknown severity. Moore has been unable to practice any this week and I’m starting to see reports indicating he is on the wrong side of questionable for this game. Even if he plays, fantasy managers can’t trust him on a bad ankle given how much of his game is predicated on speed and elusiveness. Pass on Moore this week. THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE: Much like Conner, Moore has officially been designated as questionable for this weekend and logged a third DNP on Thursday. Another true game-time decision, but my gut tells me Moore is less likely to play than Conner,
If Moore were to miss this week, my guess would be Antoine Wesley would replace him. Wesley did garner eight targets last week but he’s too much of an unknown to roll him out in your starting lineup during the fantasy playoffs. Pass on Wesley as well.
It’s safe to say that Zach Ertz has brought an element to Arizona’s passing game that it has lacked for years – a weapon at TE. Ertz has quickly become a favorite target for Murray and Ertz was leaned upon heavily last week to the tune of 11 targets of which he caught six for 74 yards. Ertz was a fixture in the TE1 ranks early in his career in Philadelphia and now it seems as if he’s replicating that success in Arizona. Look for Ertz to continue to be peppered with targets, especially if Moore is out, and return TE1 value once again in Week 16.