Kickoff: Saturday, December 24th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field
Betting Odds: BUF -9.0, 40.5 total via PFF.com
Writer: Estevão Maximo (@estevao_maximo on Twitter)
Josh Allen (Start QB1)
Josh Allen was limited at practice early in the week, but he should be good to go for Sunday, as there haven’t been any signs to point otherwise. This is a game to be on weather alert as the temperature is supposed to be in the single digits with wind gusts upwards of 20 miles per hour.
Allen and Fields are two of the better options not to be killed value-wise with this weather, as they both carry elite rushing potential, but it certainly alters the game-script, and we’re likely to see plenty of running the ball from both sides. Allen is one of very few quarterbacks that can still move the ball with unfavorable wind, but even he will face some difficulties in this game.
The Bills’ QB has 10 rushing attempts in three of his last four games, so while I wouldn’t expect a shootout, you shouldn’t panic on playing him by any means.
Devin Singletary (Start, flex) James Cook (Start, flex)
Hines vultured a TD last Saturday against the Dolphins, but at this point, it is clear the Bills made that deal for special teams purposes, and you still want to look at Singletary and Cook as the playable backs in this squad.
Cook and Singletary basically split the shares in the two games prior to that divisional matchup against the Fins (Singletary at 44 and 49%, and Cook at 43 and 41%). Singletary crept back up to 47 snaps (60%) last time out, and is still the likeliest bet to get a rushing TD that doesn’t go to Allen, but Cook actually got some looks in the slot with McKenzie not able to lock down that role, so keep an eye out for that.
Both of these backs are solid flex plays in a game that should have a lot of running, and if you’re stuck between the two of them, Singletary still gets the nod coming off a 60% snap share.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Sit), Isaiah Mckenzie (Sit), Dawson Knox (Start, TE1)
Diggs-Allen might be the most reliable connection in the sport, regardless of game-script, weather, and anything in between. Don’t read too much into the back-to-back underwhelming games, and just play the WR4 on the year.
Gabe Davis is the player I’d stay away from in this weather, Knox is coming off 15 targets, and a couple of touchdowns in the last two games, and between that and the weather, I’d only play Davis if I was desperate, and probably in need of a boom, because there is virtually no floor here.
McKenzie, like we said, can’t get a firm grip on the slot, with Bufallo bringing in Cole Beasley and actually throwing the ball to him in 2022, and also James Cook getting some looks over there, so he’s a firm sit. Knox is a low-end TE1 as the hot hand in this offense.
Justin Fields (Start QB1)
Justin Fields is playing hero ball, and anyone talking about the Bears not all in on this young man as their QB shouldn’t be talking. For fantasy purposes, Fields’ rushing line seems like that of an RB1 since week 6. They released the kraken, and in turn, every defense in the league is terrified of him breaking off a 50-yard run on them.
The only sin is that they ruled him out of bounds on that big run against Philly, snapping a streak of six consecutive games with a rushing score for the former Buckeye. In the toughest of weathers, play the man, because he’ll make it happen, with no help whatsoever on the perimeter.
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Khalil Herbert (Start, flex)
David Montgomery owners flinch at the sight of Herbert’s return, but if we look at the last two games in which Herbert scored a touchdown, against the Pats and Cowboys, he was still out-snapped by Montgomery, who had 15 rushing attempts apiece in those two games.
At the end of the day, Herbert is a playable option at flex in this weather, but Montgomery should still be the lead back, barring any unforeseen developments, making him a pretty intriguing RB2 option. His upside is obviously limited with Herbert back in there, but you shouldn’t let that drive you to overcorrect in your lineup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chase Claypool (Sit), Equinemous St Brown (Sit), Dante Pettis (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, TE1)
The Chicago Bears somehow make the Giants wide receiver room look decent, for the purposes of fantasy. I’d be more confident playing Isaiah “a playa” Hodgins over Claypool and anyone else here, and all of this is just accentuated by the bad weather.
Cole Kmet is the TE9 in 2022, and the only playable option around these parts. The former second round pick hasn’t found the end zone in his last four games, but has received a healthy dose of targets since his mid-season breakout, and is as good an option as any to score, on a reception from Fields.
Can someone get Fields some help, please.