Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 24 at 4:25 PM ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Betting Odds: DAL -5, 47 Total on Oddshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Drew DeLuca (@DrewDeLaware on Twitter)
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Gardner Minshew (Sit, QB2)
Jalen Hurts is expected to miss this week’s Christmas Eve showdown with a sprained shoulder injury that he suffered last weekend in Chicago. Enter Gardner Minshew, owner of fantasy football’s favorite mustache. Minshew, who has 22 NFL starts under his belt, doesn’t offer the insane rushing floor of Hurts. However, the former Jacksonville Jaguars starter is far from statuesque, boasts a career completion rate north of 63 percent, and a 41-12 TD/INT ratio. Those aren’t exactly Hall of Fame numbers, but they’re impressive for a backup.
Minshew draws a tough matchup against a formidable Dallas Cowboys defense, but he’ll operate behind the league’s best offensive line with a full complement of healthy skill-position players. A top-12 finish wouldn’t be a surprise, but a high-end QB2 performance seems like the median projection in his most reasonable range of outcomes. Those looking for streaming options at the QB position could do far worse than Minshew this week.
Running Back
Miles Sanders (Start, RB1), Kenny Gainwell (Sit), Boston Scott (Sit)
Miles Sanders seemed like an RB1 lock coming into last week’s game against the hapless Chicago Bears. Little to nothing was expected from Kenny Gainwell or Boston Scott. True to form, Scott was only on the field for four snaps. Gainwell, however, logged 29 of them. His 40 percent snap share was his highest of the season, and it came without warning: his snap share fell from 34 percent in Week 12 to 27 percent in Week 13 before dropping to 18 percent in Week 14. Scott didn’t record a single touch, and Gainwell belied his own name by putting up a mere 14 yards on five touches.
Meanwhile, Sanders was rarely used in the first half and managed to lose 13 yards on his only reception. This lackluster encore to a massive Week 14 performance knocked many would-be playoff teams out of contention. If your team made it to the next round anyway, put on the proverbial clown makeup and get ready: Sanders is once again shaping up to be a startable option in Week 16. Sit Gainwell and Scott, but expect RB2 numbers from the former Penn State standout.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2), Quez Watkins (Sit), Dallas Goedert (Start, TE1*), Jack Stoll (Sit), Grant Calcaterra (Sit)
Last week, Jalen Hurts threw for 315 yards. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown accounted for 308 of them. Brown led the team with 16 targets while Smith saw half as many. While Brown had the better day (9-181-0), both players exceeded 125 yards. Brown has put up 10 or more PPR points in eight of his last nine games, and Smith has done the same in five of his last six. While the floor might drop a bit with Hurts out, the ceiling remains high: Minshew has thrown for 300 or more yards five times in his career *without* a duo of pass catchers resembling anything of this caliber.
Meanwhile, Quez Watkins has caught four or more passes in four of his last six games. He has played 50 percent or more of his team’s snaps in 10 of his last 11 contests. However, his target volume and red zone prowess aren’t on Brown and Smith’s level, so he’s better off on benches and waiver wires in Week 16.
Dallas Goedert is officially questionable but has a great chance to play; he’s a must-start if he finds himself on the field this Saturday. Regardless of whether Goedert sits or starts, Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra should be ignored by fantasy football managers in all leagues.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
Prescott has largely been a fantasy disappointment thus far in 2022. Last week’s QB8 finish was his first appearance in the top ten since Week 11, and since returning in Week 7, he has thrown more interceptions than any other quarterback in the NFL. However, he has thrown 30 or more passes in four straight weeks, ran for 20 or more yards in his last two games, and welcomes an Eagles defense that has allowed more points per game to opposing fantasy quarterbacks than all but five teams over the past three weeks.
No team has generated more pressure on opposing quarterbacks than the Eagles this season; Philadelphia leads the league in sacks through Week 15. Nevertheless, the likely range of outcomes for Prescott in Week 16 includes a top-five finish and a high-end QB2 floor. With that in mind, Dak has our endorsement as a mid-range QB1 this week.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (Start, RB1), Ezekiel Elliott (Start, RB2)
Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are in a virtual 50/50 split in terms of snap share. Over the last five games, Pollard has drawn 20 targets to Elliott’s 12. However, Elliott has amassed 22 red zone touches during that span as opposed to only 12 for Pollard. Both earned at least 14 touches in each one of those games, so both deserve a spot in fantasy playoff lineups this week. We foresee the Cowboys ramping up their usage of Pollard in the passing game this week, so he shapes up as a low-end RB1. Meanwhile, Elliott makes a rock-solid mid-range RB2. Start both with confidence.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1), Michael Gallup (Start, Flex), Noah Brown (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)
CeeDee Lamb is the WR7 on the season in PPR leagues, but he has finished in the Top 12 at the position only once in the last five games, and that was a WR11 finish in Week 13. Lamb has put up 20 or more PPR points in three of his last four games, however. The Eagles boast a great outside CB duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, so we expect Lamb to rack up catches and yards in the slot against Avonte Maddox instead. Start the third-year stud and expect low-end WR1 numbers.
We can officially stop waiting for Michael Gallup to be a thing. He has three catches for 42 yards in his last two games combined. Since returning in Week 4, he has the second-highest snap share of any Cowboys wide receiver. Yet, he has finished as WR40 or better only once, when he caught four passes for 23 yards and two touchdowns.
Excluding Week 8 in which he didn’t play, Noah Brown has played 70 percent or more of his team’s snaps in all but one game this season. We don’t expect him to log another two-touchdown day anytime soon, especially with a foot injury slowing him down in practice all week. We’re not chasing last week’s touchdown anomaly, so we’ll let someone else take a flyer on Brown in Week 16.
Only six teams have allowed more receptions to tight ends over the past three weeks. With that in mind, we like how Dalton Schultz has notched 20 targets over the last three weeks, tied with CeeDee Lamb for the club lead over that period. Schultz is a slam-dunk top-ten tight end this week who offers top-five upside. A touchdown or two wouldn’t surprise us against an Eagles defense that has occasionally had trouble bottling up tight ends.