Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, December 26th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Betting Odds: LAC -4.5, 46 total via Caesars
Network: ESPN
Writer: Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL on Twitter)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
It turns out that Justin Herbert is better when he has good receivers to throw to. Since Keenan Allen‘s return in Week 11, Herbert has thrown for at least 274 yards in all five games, including three top-12 performances in that timeframe. Herbert has three straight 300-yard games, including the last two with Mike Williams back, and we can now start hoping for some league-winning performances down the stretch. It’s not all perfect, as Herbert has just two touchdown passes over the past three weeks, but this is still a step up from his mid-season lull without his top weapons.
While the Colts’ defense is middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, this is also the same defense that allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 460 yards and four touchdowns on his way to the biggest comeback in NFL history last week. Herbert is a top-half QB1 this week and gets to avoid the cold weather in the Lucas Oil Stadium dome. Start him with confidence.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1)
Austin Ekeler popped up on the injury report after briefly leaving last week’s game with an injury, but tests on Ekeler’s shoulder came back negative on Monday and he looks good to go on Monday. Ekeler has scored 11 or more PPR points in every single game this season and has finished as an RB1 in all but five weeks. I can’t conceive of a situation where you would be sitting Ekeler, and this Colts’ defense has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing running backs for good measure. Joshua Kelley played 35% of the snaps last week and makes for a top-end handcuff throughout the rest of the fantasy playoffs.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Start, WR1), Joshua Palmer (Start, Flex), Gerald Everett (Start, TE1)
Since returning in Week 11, Keenan Allen has racked up at least 7 targets in each game, including a massive 37 combined targets over the past three weeks. Allen’s target share has been 24% or higher in four of his last five games, and he looks every bit the player that he was before injuries robbed him of the first half of the season. The Colts have been good at limiting opposing receivers, and their fantasy points allowed to slot receivers is the third-lowest in the league. Despite any matchup concerns, Allen is an easy start as a WR1, as Herbert and this offense are finally showing the potential that we hoped for this offseason.
Mike Williams has combined for 10 catches for 183 yards and a touchdown since his return from injury two weeks ago, so while last week’s 11-point game was a bit disappointing in a smash spot against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense, Williams has hit the ground running in his return to the field. Williams provides a much-needed down-field target in this offense, and has four 100-yard games in just ten games. Williams is a high-end WR2 going forward, but with weather concerns across the league this weekend, Williams can be considered a WR1 as a hammer on Monday night.
As the rest of the receiving corps has gotten healthy, Joshua Palmer has seen his role slip. However, Palmer has still played a respectable 65% or more of the snaps over the past two weeks, with target shares hovering around the 13% mark. He’s still managed around 10 PPR points in each of the past two weeks, so when compared to the cold-weather games this weekend, Palmer could be an OK flex option in a tight spot. But with all of Allen, Williams, and Ekeler demanding targets, Palmer is a risky play that could easily get squeezed out if the Chargers aren’t throwing 40+ times on Monday.
Even with the offense back to full health, Gerald Everett has still drawn target shares in the 16% range over the past two weeks. Everett hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, but he can be counted on for 4-5 catches a game to go along with his pedestrian yardage totals. There’s likely not a lot of upside here, but Everett is better than what is on waivers at a miserable tight end position, and can be counted on for his typical 8 or so PPR points.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles (Sit)
The Chargers have been near the middle of the pack allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, yet Nick Foles can’t be recommended in his first start of the season. This Colts offense without Jonathan Taylor should be a rough watch, and Foles last started a game in Week 16 of last season for the Bears, where he went 24 of 35 for 250 yards and a touchdown in Seattle. Prior to that, his last start was way back in Week 10 of 2020, where he threw for 106 yards on 26 attempts. Foles has worked almost entirely with the scout team in practice, so he has very little work with the Colts’ starting offense. Expect some rust, as Foles should only be considered in superflex leagues as a desperation option.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (Sit, Flex), Deon Jackson (Sit)
Jonathan Taylor played just two snaps last week before suffering an ankle injury, so we got a one-week glimpse of this backfield without him. Zack Moss lead the way with a 67% snap share while Deon Jackson played on 32% of the snaps, and we can add Jordan Wilkins to the mix this week as he was elevated from the practice squad. Moss played ahead of Jackson in most situations, so this was not a clear early-down/3rd down split in the backfield. Neither back saw much work in the passing game, while Moss handled a bulk of the carries with 24 attempts for 81 yards.
It’s a good matchup on paper, as the Chargers allow a league-high 5.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but recommending anyone as a start feels unwise. The state of the offense combined with the uncertainty of the roles makes all of these rushers risky starts in the fantasy playoffs. Moss gets the nod by default since he had the higher snap share last week. But I would not be surprised to see the roles reverse this week, as Jackson looked good in limited work earlier this year. There is upside for a good week here due to the matchup, but this is not a predictable situation in Indianapolis.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman (Start, WR3), Parris Campbell (Sit), Alec Pierce (Sit), Whichever TE the Colts play this week (Sit, TE2)
Michael Pittman has survived a disastrous season from his quarterbacks to put up double-digit PPR points in all but three weeks. Pittman has just two touchdowns on the year and has reached 70 receiving yards just four times, but his consistent reception totals have kept him playable most weeks. Foles is a wild card here for sure, giving Pittman an uncertain floor, though we should probably wonder how much worse he could be than Matt Ryan. The Chargers have allowed the eight-fewest points to opposing wide receivers this year, so temper your expectations. But Pittman should see nearly 10 targets, plays in a dome, and will likely see some garbage time work, making him a passable WR3 option this week.
I can’t recommend Parris Campbell or Alec Pierce as any kind of a start with an unknown connection at quarterback in Foles. Maybe Foles ends up loving Campbell, maybe he loves Pierce, but we just won’t know until we see it, and even then the ceiling is likely low. And if you can tell me which of these Colts’ tight ends they will prefer from one week to the next, be my guest. But this positional group continues to be a revolving door that can’t be counted on in fantasy leagues.