Sit/Start Week 2: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 20th at 1:00 PM ET

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL

Betting Odds: TAM -8, 48.5 total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater (Start, QB2)

The “Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager” narrative got put to rest last week, as he posted an aDOT of 8.2 which was 11th highest among starting QBs. That number is also more in line with the 8 aDOT he put up in his rookie year than the 6.2 aDOT from his time with the Saints, an indicator that it was just the New Orleans scheme that led most to believe he couldn’t be an air-it-out QB.

Tampa Bay only allowed 160 yards through the air last week and a lot of that was due to their ability to get pressure up the middle and force Drew Brees into throwing the ball earlier than he’d like. New Orleans’ offensive line is much better than Carolina’s, so this is a bad sign for Teddy and the rest of the Panthers’ offense. It won’t be as easy to move the ball this week against a much better defense, so Teddy is a borderline QB2 that will likely post some pretty mediocre numbers against Tampa Bay.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffery (Start, RB2)

So here’s the deal. You’re going to start Christian McCaffery because you drafted him 1.01 and he’s the most talented player in the league, but there is reason to pause for this matchup. In two starts against Tampa Bay last season, McCaffery had 38 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while only contributing six catches on 11 targets for 42 yards and another touchdown. That’s 29 fantasy points in two games against the league’s best run defense.

Last week, Tampa Bay allowed 60 yards on 28 carries to New Orleans’ backfield, but Alvin Kamara did work in the passing game with five catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. That appears to be the route McCaffery will need to take in order to put up his usual numbers but as we saw last season it’s no guarantee against the stout Buccaneers’ defense. Roll with him as usual but temper your expectations.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

D.J. Moore (Start, WR2), Curtis Samuel (Start, Flex), Robby Anderson (Start, Flex), Ian Thomas (Sit)

D.J. Moore only caught four of his nine targets for 54 yards with an aDOT of 11.1, but the fact that he was targeted the most of the three receivers is a positive sign in his development as the #1 receiver in this offense. In two games against Tampa Bay last season, Moore had success to the tune of 16 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown. With Carolina’s defense being as bad as it is, it’s likely that the Bucs will put up a lot of points and Carolina will be forced to throw often. Moore should be a beneficiary of that and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s targeted at least ten times this week. If you drafted him you’re starting him, and he should still put up enough production to return WR2 value this week.

Curtis Samuel was targeted eight times last week with an aDOT of 8.8, but he only caught five of those targets for 38 yards. In his last three games against Tampa Bay he’s averaged 16.7 fantasy points, so there is a history of success for the player against this team. While the fantasy production wasn’t there in Week 1, the underlying stats and his history against Tampa make him worthy of a flex play this week.

Robby Anderson was the star of the show in this receiving corps, securing six of eight targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. That score was on a 75-yard play where Anderson went up to catch a nicely placed ball by Bridgewater (that traveled 35 yards in the air), made a defender miss, and won the race to the endzone. It’s clear that Anderson will have a role on this team as the boom-or-bust deep threat, but with that role comes the ebbs and flows of fantasy value on a weekly basis. It’s tough to recommend him as anything more than a flex after just one week of success, but his performance this week will go a long way towards establishing what his value will be for the rest of the season.

Last week I recommended Ian Thomas as a TE2 with TE1 upside. Well, that didn’t exactly go as planned as he was only targeted twice. Whether that was a result of mismatches in the secondary that Carolina wanted to exploit elsewhere or that tight ends simply won’t be involved in this passing scheme remains to be seen, but I won’t make the same mistake more than once. There are better options on the wire than Ian Thomas this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady (Start, QB2)

Well, that didn’t exactly go as planned. Brady and his new bunch often looked befuddled against a stingy New Orleans defense that made life miserable for Tampa’s offense all day long. In what was essentially a glorified preseason game, Brady threw for two touchdowns but also two interceptions, including a costly pick-6 that put them down 24-7 early in the third quarter. The results were not great, but Brady didn’t really look all that bad. When he had time in the pocket his throws were still sharp and on point, it’s just that his lack of athleticism clearly stands out whenever a team gets pressure on him and he makes errant throws as a result.

Carolina had no sacks against Las Vegas in Week 1, and while the Raiders have a pretty good offensive line, the Panthers’ defense simply isn’t very good at generating pressure. Brady should have more time in the pocket this week but if Chris Godwin can’t suit up then his ceiling is really limited. Godwin entered into concussion protocol on Wednesday and his outlook for Sunday’s game is grim. With Mike Evans also still nursing a hamstring injury, Brady may be throwing a lot to O.J. Howard and Scotty Miller. Keep an eye on Godwin leading up to kickoff – I love the matchup, but if Godwin’s out, Brady is a QB2 at best.

Running Backs

Ronald Jones (Start, RB2), Leonard Fournette (Flex), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Sit)

The tale of the Buccaneers’ backfield (the backaneers?) penned another chapter on Sunday as Ronald Jones and his 47.1% snap share was the main character. Carrying the ball 17 times for 66 yards, Jones outrushed newcomer Leonard Fournette, who only earned five yards on five carries with a 12.9% snap share. Bruce Arians said Jones would be the lead back in Week 1, and he stuck to his word. It looks like that will be the case for the foreseeable future, and in a great matchup against a bad Carolina run defense Jones is an RB2 this week.

I have Fournette as a flex option simply because this would be a great game for him to get his feet wet in the Tampa Bay offense. It’s possible that he continues to see sub-20% snap rates early on but I think a big reason why he wasn’t as involved last week was that Tampa essentially had to scrap the run in the 2nd half in order to claw their way back into the game. In a game that should be better for these backs, Fournette should squeak in enough work to be flex-worthy.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Scotty Miller (Sit), O.J. Howard (Start, TE2), Rob Gronkowski (Sit)

Chris Godwin earned the most targets in Week 1, with Scotty Miller and O.J. Howard closely behind. Mike Evans suited up despite an injured hamstring and as of Wednesday morning, there is no update on the status of the injury heading into Week 2. Godwin would be an obvious start this week, but he is currently in the concussion protocol. We should have a better idea of whether or not Godwin is playing come late Friday when the injury report is announced, but as I mentioned in the Brady blurb it isn’t looking good. It may be wise to start looking for other options just in case. Also, keep an eye on Evans’ injury status as we head into the weekend, because that could be the difference between a WR3 day or a WR1 day. I have him as a WR2 just to be safe.

Scotty Miller had very similar numbers to Godwin last week but Godwin wasn’t fully unleashed on a day when Brady was simply trying not to get sacked on every play. Miller looks like he’s supplanted Justin Watson as the third option in this passing attack, and that’s a valuable asset in a Brady-led offense. He showed in camp that he’s got great hands and Brady clearly likes him, so there’s a possibility for another solid day this week but I’m erring on the side of caution just to be safe.

Rob Gronkowski actually out-snapped Howard in Week 1, but Howard was the recipient of more targets and a touchdown. Why? It’s because Gronk was used as a blocker on 57% of his snaps, including seven times on passing downs. Gronk actually ran one more route than Howard did in the game, but Howard was clearly the favored option. This should continue in Week 2 as Gronk rounds his way back into football shape, and Howard has a decent matchup against a team that just allowed six catches for 45 yards to Darren Waller last week. Carolina did allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season, so they’re not total scrubs, though Howard should see enough action to warrant TE2 status this week.

-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)