Kickoff: Sunday, October 1st, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Orchard Park, Buffalo, New York
Betting Odds: BUF -3, 53.5 total via Draft Kings Sportsbook
Tua Tagovailoa (Start QB1)
Tua Tagovailoa is playing on a different level right now. Much like the 49ers, Tua benefits from having weapons galore around him. I mean, Tyreek Hill takes 12-yard posts to the house, and last week Tua tossed two slide-arm flick touchdowns to rookie speedster Devon Achane. Tua doesn’t have to do much in this offense to be a viable QB1 and he’s currently sitting at QB3 on the year. On the other hand, the Bills have been rock solid on defense this year, only allowing the Jets in OT to score 20+ points. The past two weeks they’ve allowed 13 total points. Against QBs, they have taken away the ball more than any other team and allowed the second-fewest fantasy ppg. There is a very good chance the Fins don’t blow the Bills out 70-20, but I don’t think this will be the complete inverse of last week either. Tua scored seven fewer points on average last year in his game against the Bills. That being said I think tempering expectations is a good thing, but he’s still a QB1 with these weapons.
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), Devon Achane (Start, Flex)
When you have weeks like that it makes you do crazy things (like waste all your FAAB on Devon Achane) or think crazy things (like Raheem Mostert will finish RB1). Both things were sparked by a crazy performance by the two electric speedsters. All I can say is Buffalo is a much different team and will be coming in off a blowout of their own. One where their defense took away the ball four times and stopped an upcoming offense. Now I don’t need to tell you to start Mostert or Achane, and it’s a fool’s errand to tell you to sit them. All I can say is temper expectations, as the Bills allow the ninth fewest fantasy points to RBs (14.3/ppg). Mostert has scored six touchdowns in the last two games and has looked like a monster so far. He bounces off players, takes the outside zone and runs like a man who beat Tyreek Hill in a race. Consider him a strong RB2 option. Achane, on the other hand, still needs to prove that it was him and not Denver. I’d start him as a flex this week and see what he can do.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR3), Robbie Chosen (Sit), Durham Smythe (Sit)
Tyreek Hill is unreal. He has the talent and the speed to essentially beat any defense. Currently, Hill is on pace for 2,334 receiving yards, which would break the single-season record. This week could be a little tougher considering the Bills allow the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs (21.2). That being said, never sit a healthy Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Waddle is still battling back from a concussion, but he did log a full practice on Wednesday. So far Waddle hasn’t made it into the endzone, while still averaging four catches and 82 yards in two games. I expect Waddle to have a bounce-back game this week. Robbie Chosen isn’t playing the Broncos this week so don’t put him in your lineup. Durham Smythe is a tough play this week as well. Even with the team ahead by a country mile, Smythe still couldn’t muster up more than 15 yards. Don’t start Smythe.
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen started the season rough, in Week 1 he tossed three interceptions. Since then, he’s put on a dominating performance against the Raiders. In that game, he threw for 274 yards and 3 TDs while completing 83% of his passes. Last week, Allen threw for a TD, ran for a TD, and had 264 total yards. Last year, Allen averaged 11 more fantasy points against the Dolphins. The Fins this year have been middle-of-the-road this year against the QB position but have a boat-race mentality on offense. This should lead to Allen getting all the chances in the world to score points and keep up with this crazy efficient and electric Dolphins offense.
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
James Cook has opened up the offense in the last two games, going for 271 scrimmage yards and putting up big performances without scoring a touchdown. This week the Dolphins come to town and are bringing their porous run defense. The Fins have allowed the sixth most rushing yards (337) and the ninth most fantasy ppg to RBs (22.2). This defense should allow Cook to get his opportunities, the only issue will be at the goal line. Play Cook as a solid RB2 this week. Latavius Murray is such a TD hog and it’s a narrative that is redundant and tiresome. This guy has 40 yards and 2 TDs in his three games as a Bill. I wouldn’t bank on that kind of volatility unless I was really desperate.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Sit), Dawson Knox (Sit),
Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen have looked in sync so far this year. Diggs has 279 yards and a touchdown on 25 catches. Diggs was in on 91% of snaps in Week 3, which led to 111 yards on eight catches. Look out in this game for Diggs to be the top dog, lock and load him as WR1. Gabe Davis is the Latavius Murray of Bills WRs, he’s not a sexy pick but he’s scored more TDs than the guy ahead of him. Davis has back-to-back weeks with touchdowns and has an ADOT of 16.4 yards. This means that if he can get his hands on a catch then it’s going to be for a big gain. This to me makes him a volatile prospect for the lineup and someone I can only trust in a flex role. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are both sitting for me this week. Both run about 67-68% of the team’s routes and Kincaid only has one more target than Knox. In other words, there’s no lead tight end and no one to take the role of target hog. So there’s no reason to put them in your lineup.
-Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)