Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 1st, 9:30 AM ET
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, UK
Betting Odds: JAX -3, 43.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: ESPN+ & Disney+
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Start, Low-QB1)
What a disappointing first three games for Trevor Lawrence. He currently has one finish inside the top 18 over these first three weeks, back in Week 1 where he finished as QB8. Since then he’s finished with 9.2 and 15.4 points. But if you roster Lawernce you already know these things. How are we feeling about this week? Lawrence and the Jags play in London, their home away from home. The Falcons are a middle-of-the-road against QBs, allowing 18 points per game (ppg) to the position. A big reason for the lack of production is poor red zone performance. Lawrence is 4-for-11 in the red zone this year; to me, that means he’s due for some positive regression. I’m lowering expectations for Lawrence but I’m still starting him over most other QBs.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. (Start, RB1), Tank Bigsby (Sit)
Always brightens my day to see another Jr. shine. Travis Etienne Jr. has been the bright spot on this cloudy, inconsistent Jacksonville offense. Etienne has two finishes as RB9 or better so far this year. I expect him to continue to get his even against a Falcons defense that allows 10.33 ppg to opposing RBs, the seventh-fewest in the league. His snap count percentage is among the best in the league, with at least 71% in each game this year. I don’t see Tank Bigsy as a threat to steal touches or points from this backfield. Start Etienne with zero hesitation, while Tank should be considered as nothing more than a handcuff.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley (Start, Low-WR2), Christian Kirk (Start, Low-WR2), Zay Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, Low-TE1)
Ridley me this, which Calvin Ridley will show up this week? Week 1 Ridley who caught 8-o 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown? Or Weeks 2 and 3 Ridley who, combined, caught 5-of-15 passes for 72 yards. A big reason for the disappointment is the Jaguars’ red zone performance, Lawernce is 4-for-11 in the red zone this year. Ridley specifically is 2-for-5 (so is Zay Jones, but we’ll cover him later). I’m of the belief you need to keep starting Ridley, that positive regression will come. If Ridley was your number two wide receiver and you scooped up someone like Puka Nacua off of waivers, I would start Puka over Ridley. Otherwise, I keep starting Ridley, especially with the revenge game bump this week.
After what was basically a no-show in Week 1 (1-3, 9 yards), Christian Kirk has now had two straight weeks of 15+ points. His 14 targets in Week 2 are the most any Jaguar pass-catcher has had in a game this season. I consider Kirk a viable WR2 option for any lineup and continue to start him until I see signs of slowing down.
So you’ve noticed I have both Ridley and Kirk as Low-WR2s. Let’s say you have both, who do you start? I’d give the spot in your lineup to Ridley. He outshines Kirk in targets (26 to 23) and more importantly, red zone targets (5 to 0).
Zay Jones has been a roller coaster this year. After a 16.5-point start to the season good for WR18, Jones came crashing down to Earth the following week bringing in zero of his six targets. Jones missed Week 3 due to an ankle issue. He didn’t practice Wednesday due to the same knee issue. An upside, however, is despite missing Week 3, Jones is still tied for most red zone targets on the team.
Here’s a not-so-fun stat, the Jaguars have zero red zone targets to tight ends this year. Here’s a fun stat to balance that out, Evan Engram has weekly finishes of TE5, TE6, and TE7 in spite of that. Engram is the third most targeted tight end, his 21 targets only trail T.J. Hockenson (28) and Sam LaPorta (22). Engram continues to be a slam start in all lineups.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder (Sit)
You probably have better options on the Waiver Wire than Desmond Ridder. Since becoming the starter in Week 15 last year, Ridder has failed to reach 10 points in five of his seven games. In Ridder’s case, I’m not looking at matchups, I’m looking for options elsewhere.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1), Tyler Allgeier (Sit)
Bijan Robinson has finally had a pedestrian game, putting up 10 points for a measly RB22 finish. I kid, it’s not a terrible finish but it’s half of what he’s scored in each of his last two weeks. The Jaguars are one of the better defenses against the run, allowing 8.67 ppg to opposing RBs (fourth-fewest in the league). Despite that, I’m firing up Robinson with high expectations and no hesitations.
Remember after Week 1 when it looked like the Falcons had an unbeatable two-headed monster backfield featuring Tyler Allgeier? Since then, Allgeier has put up 4.8 points and 4.9 points in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively. His snap count percentage has lowered each week, from Week 1’s 56% to 44% to 30% last week. I’m not holding my breath that Allgeier becomes a major factor in this offense again, and would only consider rostering as a handcuff to Robinson.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, Flex), Mack Hollins (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Start, High-TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
Is it crazy to give Drake London a rankings bump for playing in London? Even with that bump though, I’m only considering London a flex at best. The Falcons as a team have 30 balls thrown to WRs so far this year, ten fewer than the next lowest New York Jets. To give that some extra perspective, Puka Nacua, Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Michael Pitman Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Stefon Diggs all have more targets individually than every Falcon wide receiver combined. This offense does not throw the ball.
I’m not starting Mack Hollins or Jonnu Smith.
As for Kyle Pitts, even though I’m a certified hater I can respect the facts. The last time Pitts played in London, 2021 Week 5 vs. New York Jets, he caught a touchdown. It was his only touchdown in his rookie year. If there is any week I consider starting Pitts it’s this one.