Tier 5: The “Area 51” Tier (Continued)
There’s definitely something there, but will it stay hidden from the public?
61. Zay Flowers WR, BAL (WR29, ▼1)
Zay Flowers was solid overall through Week 13 but finished the season en fuego. His 12.1 points per game nearly doubled to 20.3 over the final five weeks. How nice of him to lead all of his fantasy managers to the consolation bracket championship! I was a big fan of Flowers coming into the season, but the torrid end to the season bumped him into the top 10 in total points and just outside the top 12 in points per game. I fear that will inflate his ADP, which doesn’t belong. Baltimore cleaning house also means he’ll have a new offensive coordinator, and it may not be as fantasy-friendly for Flowers. Former OC Todd Monken’s offense is known for hyper-targeting WR1s. He’s too inconsistent to consider drafting as a WR1, but Flowers is a rock-solid WR2 who will have some spike weeks.
62. DeVonta Smith WR, PHI (WR30, no change)
DeVonta Smith is one of those guys who’s a better NFL player than he is in fantasy. This isn’t me poo-pooing Smith’s talent; he’s a phenomenal football player. But his highest fantasy finish in points per game is WR15 in 2022. Smith doesn’t have top-10 potential with Jalen Hurts under center, even if the Eagles move on from AJ Brown. He had more games under 10 points (10) than over (7). Smith’s a solid yet unspectacular WR2 who will sprinkle in some spike weeks, but has far too many duds to make it worth the price tag.
63. D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI (RB24, ▼2)
In the words of Nick Pollack, “Swift Doesn’t Miss.” D’Andre Swift has never finished outside the top 24 running backs in points per game and finished as RB17 in 2025 despite sharing a backfield with a capable runner in Caleb Williams and a promising rookie in Kyle Monangai. Swift ranked in the top 10 in yards per carry and yards per reception and in the top five in yards after the catch per reception. His skill set makes him useful in fantasy even with a partial workload, and Swift likely heads into 2026 underrated once again. Be like Swift. Don’t miss on D’Andre.
64. Bhayshul Tuten, RB, JAC (RB25, no change)
Bhayshul Tuten was causing some horns to be tootin’ when Tank Bigsby was traded to the Eagles, which I get. He had some splash plays and looked as if he could take over the backfield at times. But at the end of the season, the numbers were not great, Bob. Tuten ranked 33rd in yards per carry, 43rd in explosive run rate, and was slightly better but nothing special in missed tackles forced (15th) and yards after contact (14). Even if Travis Etienne Jr. signs elsewhere, I doubt they give the keys to the kingdom to Tuten.
UPDATE (4/5): Etienne has headed to NOLA, and as of now, Tuten is the top back on the depth chart. Whether he still is after the draft will determine what range his ranking lands in. As the lead back, Tuten is easily in the top 20 RBs for me.
UPDATE (5/20): OK, so maybe not so easily in the top 20 RBs. Tuten came out of the draft as the lead back for the Jags, but as hard as I tried, I couldn’t fit him into the current top 20. That’s not a knock on Tuten, I think he’s in a similar tier to the DMonts and DSwifts of the world. But I can’t push him ahead of them, yet.
65. Rico Dowdle, RB, PIT (RB26, ▲9)
Rico Dowdle signed a 1-year “prove it” deal with the Panthers last offseason, and he proved it. He was a major part of the Panthers’ success and surprise playoff appearance, outperforming Chuba Hubbard in yards per carry, explosive run rate, missed forced tackles, yards after contact per attempt, and the list goes on and on. It seems Dowdle wasn’t too happy with his questionable usage, per his post-playoff loss social media posts. With Hubbard still under contract and Jonathan Brooks returning from injury, I’d expect to see him elsewhere in 2026. If he can find a team willing to give him the lion’s share of the carries, we saw he’s plenty capable of putting up top-10 weeks.
UPDATE (4/5): Well, Pittsburgh isn’t technically the situation I had hoped for, but it’ll do. While he’ll share the workload with Jaylen Warren, he’ll get plenty of run in Mike McCarthy‘s offense. I value Dowdle similarly to last season.
66. Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT (RB27, ▲1)
Jaylen Warren could go into 2026 unrated once again. But I won’t make the same mistake I did and be one of the people underrating him, as I was in 2025. Warren ranked 13th in explosive run rate, sixth in yards after contact, and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He’s involved in the passing game as well, averaging 46 catches over the past three seasons. The emergence of Kenneth Gainwell may have masked how good Warren was. Gainwell is a free agent in 2026 and could end up elsewhere, especially with the drastically changing scenario in Pittsburgh. Warren is a fantastic RB2 target who may be able to be had at an RB3 price tag.
UPDATE (4/5): The addition of Rico Dowdle puts a rather large damper on Warren’s fantasy prospects for 2026. The move does more damage to Warren, who had the backfield all to himself for about 20 minutes when Kenneth Gainwell signed in Tampa.
67. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, TB (RB28, ▲5)
Kenneth Gainwell caught 73 passes on his way to 1,000 combined yards and an RB2 season, and he enters the offseason as an unrestricted free agent. The running back free-agent market is loaded, but Gainwell should be in a favorable position for fantasy purposes thanks to his pass-catching chops.
UPDATE (4/5): When one door closes, another opens, something something darkside….
I hate Gainwell in Tampa Bay for my boy Bucky Irving, but I LOVE it for Kenny. As the pass catching+ option, Gainwell likely winds up an RB2 that can be drafted at FLEX pricing in PPR formats.
UPDATE (5/20): All the offseason updates regarding the Bucs’ backfield have sounded like sweet, sweet sax-a-ma-phone music to Kenny G truthers. Bucky’s shoulder injury is still nagging, and even though he’s reportedly expected to be ready for the start of camp, the coaching staff has been waxing poetic about the skillset of Gainwell and how it’s identical to that of Irving. Expect a full-blown committee, and if Irving fails to stay on the field, Kenny G could be one of the best draft values in 2026.
68. Rachaad White, RB, WAS (RB29, ▲1)
Rachaad White is a free agent, and although he isn’t quite Bucky Irving, he could be a serviceable RB2 in the right offense if given a chance to start or close to it.
UPDATE (4/5): White signed with the Commanders, which I LOVE for his fantasy viability. Where he winds up in rankings land depends on whether Washington drafts a running back and what kind of draft capital they invest. White is easily the most talented back currently on the roster.
69. Bucky Irving, RB, TB (RB30, ▼6)
A lost season for Bucky Irving may have cost him more than just multiple games. It also cost him his role as the goal line back for the Bucs. He still showed flashes that made him one of the most dynamic rookies of 2024, but his struggles at the goal line opened the opportunity for Sean Tucker to steal the job, and he did. Irving ranked dead last in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 carries and was seventh-worst in explosive run rate. Rachaad White is a free agent, and if he leaves town, it could open up a few extra touches, but Tucker is more likely to be the beneficiary there. Bucky has an offseason to get healthy and will lead the Bucs’ backfield in 2026. But if Tucker continues to hoard the goal-line work, Irving’s ceiling is capped.
UPDATE (4/5): The hopes of an offseason to get Irving healthy and the departure of White were the prerequisites for returning to form, but Tampa signed Kenneth Gainwell to replace him, planting a haymaker right to the gut of Bucky believers. Gainwell broke out bigly in Pittsburgh last season with 1,000 combined yards and an RB2 season, and honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him end the season with more snaps in the Bucs backfield than Irving. Instead of the recipe for a bounce-back third season, Irving sadly has all the ingredients for a lukewarm soup that tastes like disappointment.
UPDATE (5/20): It was recently reported that Irving’s shoulder injury is still causing him issues. Not what you want to hear when the new OC said he thinks Irving and Gainwell have similar skillsets. That aroma of disappointment soup lingering in the air is quickly shifting to straight-up poop soup. As of now, my dear Bucky is a full fade for me in 2026. He ironically drops one spot behind former teammate Rachaad White.
70. Blake Corum, RB, LAR (RB31, ▲6)
Blake Corum. Fifth-highest yards per carry. Sixth-highest explosive run rate. Second-highest success rate. Still playing second fiddle to Kyren Williams. He started to see more work down the stretch, but until he supplants Williams on the depth chart, he’s a risky FLEX at best. He’s arguably the top handcuff heading into 2026.
71. Jaylen Waddle, WR, DEN (WR31, no change)
It’s hard to rank any of the players on teams that have cleaned house of their coaching staff and, more than likely, their quarterback as well. Jaylen Waddle is one of those guys. Tyreek Hill is technically still on the roster, but I expect Miami to cut him with a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterback. The jury’s still out on what kind of upside we’ll see from Waddle in 2026. But he was able to overcome the Dolphins’ issues this season to rank in the top 12 in both targets per route run and yards per route run. He’s at worst a WR2 with WR1 talent if things click in the new-look Dolphins offense.
UPDATE (4/5): We wanted him out of Miami, but a crowded Denver receiver room isn’t great for his upside. Waddle remains a WR2 with upside, but his floor is much lower than it was in Miami. I didn’t think that was possible.
Tier 6: The “Is This a Pigeon?” Tier
You aren’t sure if they’re a superstar or role player, but you’re starting them.
72. Mike Evans WR, SF (WR32, ▼3)
Injury after injury led to the legendary 1,000-receiving-yard streak ending for Mike Evans. Evans played in just eight games, in part because of a broken collarbone, and will be 33 at the start of the season. Evans had a league-low 1.33 yards after catch per reception. Chris Godwin will be a year removed from his gruesome injury, and both Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillian will be a year further into their NFL careers. View Evans as similar to Davante Adams, a solid WR2 who will have a few spike weeks. The problem is that Evans has more competition for targets and nowhere near the touchdown upside.
UPDATE (4/5): Funny that comp is what I went with back in January, because the Adams in LA role is exactly what I project for Evans in San Fran.
73. Jakobi Meyers WR, JAC (WR33, ▼1)
Jakobi Meyers went from an afterthought in Las Vegas to Trevor Lawrence‘s favorite target after a midseason trade to Jacksonville. Meyers averaged 12.4 points per game with the Jaguars from Weeks 10-17, and the team rewarded him with a three-year contract extension to keep him in Duval for a long time. He led the Jaguars with a 21.8% target share and was second to Parker Washington with 1.88 yards per route run. There will be plenty of mouths to feed, especially with the return of Travis Hunter. But Meyers appears to be a fixture in the offense and makes for a rock-solid WR2.
UPDATE (5/20): Similar story with Meyers as with DJ Moore. His situation didn’t change much, but with the reshuffling of other receivers in this ranks update, Meyers is just outside WR2 range for me.
74. Justin Herbert, QB, LAC (QB5, no change)
Justin Herbert came out of the gates blazing, throwing 16 touchdowns in his first eight games. But as the already suspect offensive line began to drop like flies due to injury, Herbert had less and less time to throw, and eventually ended up with a broken hand. Herbert had only two games with multiple touchdown passes after Week 9, but he still finished as a QB1. If the Chargers can shore up the o-line and give Herbie some time without pressure, there’s potential for a push into the top five.
UPDATE (4/5): I’m fully back in on Herbert. The cost has risen a smidge with the hiring of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, the man who made Tua Tagovailoa look like a franchise foundational quarterback. The Chargers’ o-line should be much improved, starting with returning linchpins Alt and Slater, the signing of Pro Bowl center Tyler Biadasz, and almost assuredly addressing the guard position in the early rounds of this year’s draft, potentially in the first. We’ve seen Herbert’s upside as early as last season. Don’t let the gross finish down the stretch that reeked of injury and misfortune cost you the opportunity to acquire a 28-year-old quarterback in his prime with potential for multiple QB1 overall seasons. I’m not saying that’s Herbert’s future, but I’m not NOT saying it. Ya feel me?
75. Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC (QB6, no change)
Trevor Lawrence finally put it all together and had the best season of his career under Liam Coen. Lawrence recorded 38 touchdowns and threw downfield a butt ton, ranking second in deep attempts and first in deep yards per game. He has a loaded receiver room with Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter. Coen seems to have finally unlocked Lawrence, helping him achieve his first top-five fantasy season, and nothing suggests he’ll slow down in 2026.
76. Christian Watson, WR, GB (WR34, ▼1)
Christian Watson was easily the Packers’ most consistent pass catcher in 2025 and one of the best in the league. He ranked fifth with 2.67 yards per route run, third with 17.46 yards per reception, and fourth with 11.11 yards per target. Granted, Watson did so with Jayden Reed hurt for much of the season. But Watson’s numbers didn’t change all that much when they were both on the field. Watson saw virtually the same number of targets, caught the same number of passes, and averaged just four fewer yards with Reed, as well as a negligible 1.3 fantasy points less per game. Watson may head into 2026 underrated, with many expecting his breakout solely due to Reed’s absence. If that’s the case, buy that delicious dip.
77. Kyle Pitts Sr., TE, ATL (TE6, no change)
Good things happen when you get Kyle Pitts the ball, and it finally seems like the Falcons have figured that out. It’s a little too late for Raheem Morris, but new head coach Kevin Stefanski wasn’t afraid to feature the tight end in Cleveland, a promising sign for Pitts’ future. Pitts finished in the top five in yards per route run and yards after contact per reception, setting career highs across the board and earning his first top-five fantasy finish. Kyle Pitts SZN was finally real, and it was spectacular.
78. Alec Pierce, WR, IND (WR35, no change)
Alec Pierce emerged as the Colts’ top wide receiver and one of the most explosive in the league. He led the league in average depth of target (19.4), yards per target (11.94), and yards per reception (21.34). He’s a free agent, but it sounds like the Colts are going to make a major push to keep him. To emerge from the logjam of pass catchers in Indy, he’s shown he can be a fantasy force even in a crowded receiver room. Pierce is my perfect WR3 target and someone I hope to draft a lot of next season.
UPDATE (4/5): Pierce resigned with Indy and has an even safer floor with Pittman heading to Pittsburgh. That floor becomes quite a bit lower if Daniel Jones isn’t ready to start the season and the Colts are forced to start one of Anthony Richardson or Riley Leonard.
79. Jaxson Dart, QB, NYG (QB7, ▲1)
It seems the New York Football Giants finally have their quarterback of the future in Jaxson Dart. What could have been for the Giants if he had started from day one and Malik Nabers had stayed healthy? Dart set multiple records in his rookie season: the first rookie quarterback with multiple games of 240+ passing yards, 60+ rushing yards, and two or more total touchdowns; the first quarterback to accumulate 1,800+ passing yards, 400+ rushing yards, and 20+ total touchdowns in his first nine career starts; and the first quarterback to score a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games. Oh, and new head coach John Harbaugh is here to help take Dart to the next level. He’ll need to work on protecting himself from big hits, but as long as Dart stays on the field, he’s a borderline QB1 with QB1 overall potential.
UPDATE (4/5): The Todd Monken thing fell through, but there’s still a lot to like with Dart in 2026. The Giants lost Wan’Dale Robinson but added TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, and are expected to address the receiver position in the draft. Dart has a wide range of outcomes, but one of the highest ceilings of all fantasy quarterbacks.
UPDATE (5/20): The Giants bulked up their O-line by drafting G Francis Mauigoa with the 1st round pick acquired in the Dexter Lawrence trade. They didn’t add a top-tier talent at receiver via the draft, but did add some depth with upside in fourth round pick Malachi Fields out of Notre Dame. Malik Nabers reportedly has surgery recently to clean up some scar tissue, which isn’t a concern as of now. But it doesn’t help rid me of that gut feeling he could be worse off than the Giants are letting on. That feeling could also just be gas.
80. Isaiah Likely, TE, NYG (TE7, no change)
We FINALLY got the Kyle Pitts breakout. Can we get Isaiah Likely next? The pending free agent offers mouthwatering upside thanks to his athleticism and explosiveness, but he hasn’t been able to put it together for more than a few games in Baltimore. If he ends up as the TE1 in a tight-end-friendly offense (maybe following Monken to New York?), he has legit Top-5 potential.
UPDATE (4/5): Likely followed someone to New York, but it wasn’t Monken. Regardless, the points made still stand, and I LOVE Likely’s upside as a top target for Jaxson Dart.