What We Saw: Week 12

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Chargers @ Bills

The theme of the game, according to announcers Greg Gumbel and Rich Gannon, was the maturity of the two starting quarterbacks. But, while both showed flashes of brilliance under center, there were plenty of head-scratching moments for Justin Herbert and Josh Allen that made them both look silly. The first half saw clock mismanagement and special teams gaffes for the Chargers (what else is new?!), while Sean McDermott dusted off the “trickery” portion of his playbook to score a touchdown that extended the Bills’ lead. Herbert and Allen’s mistakes made for a sloppy second half, including some back-breaking interceptions that ultimately doomed the Chargers and kept the Bills in first place in the AFC East. Buffalo pulled out the win, 27-17.

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert: 31/52, 316 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks | 2 carries, -2 yards

Herbert’s line could have looked a lot better if he and Keenan Allen had been able to hook up more consistently. Throws were either slightly off from Herbert or Allen couldn’t reel them in. It didn’t help that Allen saw lots of courage from elite corner Tre’Davious White. Herbert was often forced to go to other players in what Rich Gannon called his “post-snap reads,” meaning Herbert had to look away from Allen and towards his other receivers, something that is difficult for a rookie quarterback to do. He wasn’t able to consistently connect with other receivers — which limited the explosiveness of the offense as a whole — and often had to dump the ball off to Austin Ekeler around the line of scrimmage. Herbert’s interception (see below) came at the worst time in the game, with the Chargers driving up the field and down by just a touchdown. It was a tough week for Herbert on the ground, too, with Herbert rushing just twice all game and racking up a whopping -2 yards on the ground. It wasn’t Herbert’s best week, but it helps that he racked up 300 yards and a TD through the air. The rushing prowess will hopefully return next week against the Patriots.

TAKEAWAY TRE!!!

📺 #LACvsBUF on CBS pic.twitter.com/u9tc3E9n8k

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 29, 2020

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: 14 carries, 44 yards | 16 targets, 11 receptions, 85 yards

Joshua Kelley: 7 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD

Troymaine Pope: 1 carry, -1 yard

My goodness, what a week for Austin Ekeler. There was much talk of Ekeler being “eased back into action” after several weeks on the Injured Reserve list. Hopefully, fantasy managers ignored the Coach Speak (TM) and started him anyway, because Ekeler was the preferred short-yardage target (his longest reception went for just 14 yards) for Herbert this week. He didn’t look particularly explosive or threatening when receiving hand-offs — which was a little surprising, considering how susceptible the Bills have been to the rush this season — but he was still the clear RB1 in the offense. Ekeler should be locked into lineups moving forward as his rapport with Herbert continues to grow.

Joshua Kelley is likely still going to be involved in the offense in some capacity going forward, but it may only be limited to short-yardage situations like it was today. The final stat line was a little misleading, because Kelly accumulated 33 of his 35 yards on one rush. so don’t be fooled by the 5.0 YPC. His touchdown came on a goal-line leap on 4th down (check it out below) that made him serviceable for any fantasy managers that needed to use him. Unfortunately, Kelley has come under fire recently for “running timidly” by Coach Anthony Lynn; this issue, compounded with the return of Ekeler, means that Kelley can probably be dropped fairly soon.

Joshua Kelley goes 🆙 #FantasyFootball | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/5reemFSwZi

— QB List (@TheQBlist) November 29, 2020

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Keenan Allen: 10 targets, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Tyron Johnson: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 63 yards

Jalen Guyton: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards

Mike Williams: 5 targets, 2 receptions, 26 yards

Hunter Henry: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 67 yards

As was stated before, it was a rough day for Herbert and Keenan Allen, who struggled to gain any real separation from Tre’Davious White. In fact, struggling to gain separation was a common theme for all of the Chargers’ pass-catchers. None of the receivers listed above were able to consistently to get away from their defenders, which is why Herbert’s completion percentage was the lowest of the season. It was nice to see Hunter Henry get his due after a couple rough weeks in the box score, even if his average reception was for just 9.6 yards. He did see a redzone target in the first quarter but wasn’t able to convert it. Nearly every receiver in this offense (aside from Allen and Henry) is going to be a dart throw and shouldn’t be started unless you have no other choice. However, Henry may be an excellent TE choice next week with Allen likely seeing lots of coverage from Stefon Gilmore and the Patriots defense.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen: 18/24, 157 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble lost, 2 sacks | 9 carries, 32 yards, 1 TD

Matt Barkley: 1 sack

Just like virtually any other week, Allen recouped most of his value on the ground, tacking on a touchdown with a sprint to the left pylon in the fourth quarter. He was rather underwhelming in the passing game and in the game overall, throwing an interception and losing a fumble just outside the redzone (both turnovers were in the fourth quarter). Even without Melvin Ingram, the Chargers were still able to get some good pressure on Allen and Matt Barkley when they dropped back to pass. He wasn’t asked to do much as it is, with the Bills’ ground game really doing much of the heavy lifting, but Allen did complete 75% of his passes. Allen didn’t look downfield much, attempting (and completing) just one pass for more than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Running Back

Devin Singletary: 11 carries, 82 yards, 1 fumble lost | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 20 yards

Zack Moss: 9 carries, 59 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards

Both RBs looked strong today when called upon, showing great burst and finding the second level a few times. Both Moss and Singletary racked up the yardage on each carry, with Singletary averaging 7.5 YPC and Moss tallying 6.6 YPC. The issue is that the two are in a dead-even split of carries and receptions, capping their fantasy values significantly. With this usage, Singletary and Moss are best at FLEX or simply on your bench. If one or the other were to get injured, the other would be an excellent choice for FLEX or even RB2 status. The only differentiation is that Moss received the sole red-zone carry for the RBs, but even that upside is capped by the presence of Josh Allen, who appears to be the main red-zone rushing threat. Singletary did lose the first of two fumbles in the fourth quarter for the Bills, but it didn’t appear to hurt his status as he was still receiving carries just a few drives later.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Gabriel Davis: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 79 yards, 1 TD

Stefon Diggs: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 39 yards

Cole Beasley: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 25 yards | 1/1, 20 yards, 1 TD

Those of us who were hoping for a Cole Beasley explosion with John “Smokey” Brown unavailable for the game were completely disappointed, as Beasley more or less disappeared from the game. He did have a sweet throw to Gabriel Davis in the red-zone to tally another touchdown for the Bills, but was mostly a non-factor otherwise. Allen looked Davis’ way more than expected, as Davis became the primary deep-threat with John Brown unavailable. Davis was able to get some separation against a strong (albeit a little injured) Chargers defense. Additionally, Stefon Diggs owners likely came away disappointed, especially because premier corner Casey Hayward – who likely would have seen a lot of Diggs – was out for today’s matchup. Since Allen wasn’t asked to throw very often, Diggs’ fantasy line suffered, as he was mostly relegated to “possession receiver” status and earned just 5.6 YPC on his 7 catches, a far cry from his season average of 12.4 YPC. This is likely just because of game script and should cause no reason to panic. Outside of Diggs, the Bills’ receiving corps are going to be dart throws at best and heavily dependent on a pass-centric game script to maintain fantasy value.