Cardinals @ Patriots
The Arizona Cardinals took a trip to Foxboro in a week where injuries, COVID tests, and mass confusion speckled the NFL landscape. A close game to the end, New England narrowly eeked out a 20-17 win on a field goal from Nick Folk as the game clock expired, so let’s dive into the action and see if we can grab any fantasy expectations from the results.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: 23/34, 170 yards, 0 TD,1 INT, 2 sacks | 5 carries, 31 yards
Kyler Murray went from Superman to Clark Kent in roughly a week’s time, as the potential season MVP looked all but hampered all game. Overthrows, check downs, and general confusion marred his statline, as Kyler seems intent to play through a shoulder injury just to keep the Cardinals’ playoff chances alive. While this is the third game this season that Murray has passed for under 200 yards, he seemed understandably timid in his “roll out and rush” approach that has made him such a dynamic fantasy quarterback and dangerous real-life quarterback. Murray easily had the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback on the year, and for four weeks straight from Week 6 through Week 10, he didn’t have a game with under ten rushing attempts. It’s clear without the coaching staff discussing it that Kyler Murray is being coached to avoid short running situations with potential hard-hitting endings, and goal-line rushes where defensive boxes will be stacked for quick contact. This helps Kenyan Drake but greatly harms Murray for as many weeks as his shoulder doesn’t feel right. As someone who has Kyler in most of my leagues, hopefully, this is just a one-week situation coming off a recent injury where the coaching staff didn’t want to take any chances. Kyler will remain a fringe number one quarterback due to his large passing capabilities, but his true depth of value comes from his rushing prowess and end zone nose.
Running Backs
Kenyan Drake: 22 carries, 78 yards, 2 TDs | 4 targets, 3 receptions, 15 yards
Chase Edmonds: 6 carries, 29 yards | 5 targets, 4 receptions, 14 yards
The Cardinals only had two touchdowns in the game, and Kenyan Drake had both of them. The Cardinals likely had a discussion with Kyler on avoiding the contact rushing for the near future, and Drake was the beneficiary. 78 yards is no stuffed fantasy line, but you’ll take the two touchdowns any time. He actually averaged more than a yard less per carry than Chase Edmonds, but it’s very clear that the team is content with Drake being their goal line and short-yardage contact back, much to the content of Drake’s fantasy owners.
This is a tough situation to fully gauge, as Murray may just feel well going into next week, and the dynamic rushing prowess of their MVP candidate quarterback could sow some consistency again in Arizona. It’s clear without the worry of Kyler jetting for yards, some huge portion of the Cardinals’ offensive onslaught doesn’t translate. In the meantime, Drake vaults himself to a strong RB1, but be very careful against another high-end defense. See below: One of Drake’s short rushes.
Kenyan Drake gives us the first score of the day.#FantasyFootball | #RedSea pic.twitter.com/8547WwiJT0
— QB List (@TheQBlist) November 29, 2020
Drake was stuffed at the one-yard-line as time expired in the 1st half. He very nearly scored, and likely did, but he was called down before reaching the goal line and replays were inconclusive. A decent day could have been a huge day had he clearly crossed the line there.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeAndre Hopkins: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 55 yards
Dan Arnold: 3 targets, 1 reception, 17 yards
Andy Isabella: 6 targets,4 receptions, 33 yards
Christian Kirk: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 19 yards |1 carry, 0 yards
Maxx Williams: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 10 yards
KeeSean Johnson: 1 target, 1 reception, 7 yards
With Kyler’s shoulder quietly ailing him, the offense in tow struggled as well (save for Kenyan Drake). Kyler didn’t really look comfortable at all during this entire game, and after a scorching hot beginning to the season, it’s hard to not just tie this directly to a week removed from a hard contact hit that left his shoulder being worked on on the sideline last week. He connected with Hopkins on 5 of his 7 targets, but never bombed any balls downfield, and only spread out 170 air yards. The stat line for the wide receivers was almost just a touch better for the ‘Zona receivers and Murray, but KeeSean Johnson came down just short of a touchdown late in the first half, finishing the play somewhere between the 1/2 and 3/4 yard line. While it was a disheartening effort for those of us (myself included) who have enjoyed success with the Murray and DeAndre Hopkins combo meal all year long, this is just two weeks (one with the actual injury included in) that we have seen the Cardinals’ offense look pedestrian, and while the Patriots’ defense has been extremely rough on paper this season, they thrive on shutting down a team’s #1 weapons. It’s extremely tough to go back to the well just a week or two from a fantasy playoff, but you have to dance with the one that brought ya. Keep an eye on the coverage of Kyler, Hopkins, and company over the next few days for any mention of health. You’d hate to be the overthinker who sits either Kyler or DeAndre in the week where they go back to the astronomical outputs they’ve shown us.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Cam Newton: 9/18, 84 yards, 2 INTs, 3 sacks | 9 carries, 46 yards
This game was strange for multiple reasons, but the biggest for me was seeing Cam Newton “lead” this team to victory on less than one hundred passing yards. Just as strange was seeing Cam have clearly a very flawed fantasy performance, but outpace Kyler on the ground with more rushing yards. It puts in perspective the large difference between the young rushing quarterbacks and the base model that Cam brought into the league just a decade ago, as Cam looked frustrated, slow, and pedestrian. I love watching Cam play football, but it’s very clear that this season has frustrated him and shown that the league has caught up to him both metaphorically and literally, as he salvaged a pretty brutal fantasy offering if you were forced to use him, with almost fifty yards on the ground (fifteen more rushing yards than Kyler gave you today). Cam is no longer a fantasy asset, and unfortunately, the first month of the season shine has worn off, as the team is in an odd spot of fighting for a playoff spot just short of a .500 record, or keeping that disappointing record and opting for a high-end draft pick. A small bright spot is that Cam actually looked somewhat decent breaking off some rushing plays, so if you’re forced to use him in fantasy, that he may continue to cut it up with some small rushing gains.
Running Backs
James White: 5 carries, 18 yards, 2 TDs | 1 target, 1 reception, – 1 yard
Damien Harris: 14 carries, 47 yards
The backfield is Damien Harris‘ to lose, though Sunday brought us two James White touchdowns on his five carries. This was also the second game in a row that Sony Michel has been active but not touched the ball. Harris wasn’t a force on the field like he’s looked at numerous times so far, but he certainly didn’t do anything to lose the opportunity. In fact, Michel was on the field for a single snap in the first half but was relegated to a blocking role. While the offense itself had over 100 rushing yards, a little less than half of that ended up coming from Cam Newton. The more interesting showcase in this game was the tough yardage plays that would normally be Rex Burkhead‘s ending up not going to Sony Michel or a full back, but instead going to James White, who took in two touchdowns on the ground for the only two touchdowns’ on New England’s side. This offensive showcase for the Patriots has me a touch apprehensive, as it’s very clear this team has no spark without Julian Edelman, Rex Burkhead, or many offensive playmakers. The Cardinals have an up-and-coming defense, so this game makes me a bit less worried than it usually would, but it’s very clear that this team will be looking for a spark going forward towards the end of the season, and the future. Most interesting is that James White will likely continue to see himself in on role plays that usually would be delegated to Rex Burkhead. Harris has fringe RB2 upside, and James White the same in PPR leagues.
Check-in one of those James White TDs below!
James White with a clutch 4th down conversion and score. #FantasyFootball | #GoPats pic.twitter.com/qNF8iquAsk
— QB List (@TheQBlist) November 29, 2020
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 52 yards
Damiere Byrd: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards
N’Keal Harry: 3 targets, 0 receptions | 1 rush, -2 yards
Gunner Olszewski: 1 rush, 1 yard
It is tough to own any form of this Patriots offense right now, but the hardest pick up is anyone in this wide receiving crew. Knowing kind of what you can anticipate with rushers and with Cam Newton, you really don’t have that same luxury with this receiving corps. Jakobi Meyers showed back up in a week where less than ten completions were made, and one-quarter of receptions completed was the same amount of picks thrown. Cam is clearly frustrated, and for the most part, has lost the speed to break the edge when needed on rushes, and so there isn’t much dynamic to be done here. The Patriots really only have one relatively easy matchup left on the schedule, as they’re going into some prime matchups against the Chargers, Bills, Rams, and Dolphins. The only easy beat would likely be the Jets. It would be safe to anticipate that for the rest of the season, Jakobi Meyers is your #1 option in this receiving crew, but who’s really to know? Damiere Byrd went from world-beater last week to a quiet 33-yard showcase this week. N’Keal Harry is starting to quietly develop himself into nothing but another Patriots’ missed wide receiver draft pick and someone that could be on the outs with the team pretty soon. Your only true fantasy option here is Meyers, and he’s nothing more than a flex option in PPR leagues due to his sheer amount of targets (30 in his last four games).
— Matthew Bevins (@MattQBList on Twitter, TheLoneSpring on Reddit)