What We Saw 2023: Week 7

Bills @ Patriots

Final Score: Patriots 29, Bills 25

Writer: Brett Ford (@fadethatman on Twitter)

In what was one of the most unlikely outcomes of the week, the New England Patriots took down their division rival the Buffalo Bills, 29-25, as Mac Jones outdueled Josh Allen to get the win.

The Patriots jumped out to an early lead, capitalizing on an early mistake to take a 13-3 first-half lead. Buffalo battled back in the second half, even taking the lead in the fourth quarter, but Jones drove the Patriots down the field for a game-winning score with just 15 seconds to play as Bill Belichick earned his 300th career regular-season victory.

Let’s dig in.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen: 27/41, 265 Yards, 2 TDs, INT | 7 Carries, 17 Yards, TD, 1 Fumble (Lost)

Josh Allen started the day on a sour note, with his first pass attempt picked off by the Patriots’ defense. Allen tried for a splash play on the Bills’ first play from scrimmage, but the defensive back dropped off the underneath route and leaked back to pick Allen’s ball.

PICKING PEPPERS!!@JabrillPeppers | #ForeverNE

📺 on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/3j1nqRNxfR

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 22, 2023

After that mistake Allen settled in, leading the Bills down the field for field goal attempts on two of his next three drives, but the squad trailed at halftime, 13-3.

Allen opened the second half with an 81-yard drive, completing six of his seven pass attempts (six of eight, if you include the incompletion that was nullified by a roughing the passer penalty) to lead a touchdown drive out of the gates. He found James Cook for an eight-yard touchdown catch to cap the drive.

He finished with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives, completing eight consecutive passes on those two drives. He found Stefon Diggs for a 25-yard score and capped the go-ahead drive with a one-yard rushing touchdown (on his second sneak attempt from the 1-yard line).

Allen ended the day on a sour note, too. Trailing by four points with just 15 seconds to go 75 yards, Allen scrambled and fumbled away the ball.

Running Back

James Cook: 13 carries, 56 yards | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 46 yards, TD

James Cook was the heavy-usage primary down back, playing on 30 early-down snaps compared to just 12 early-down snaps for Murray (newly-acquired Ty Johnson got one, too). Cook popped off some chunk plays, including a 20-yard run and a 28-yard reception, and found his way to the painted area with an eight-yard touchdown catch in the second half.

Cookin'!

📺: @CBS pic.twitter.com/RAImBv6O95

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 22, 2023

Latavius Murray: 4 carries, 8 yards | 2 targets, 2 receptions, 20 yards

Latavius Murray was used primarily as a goal-line option but also dominated the two-minute drill snaps and third-down chances as well. Though the production was lopsided in favor of Cook, Murray was still on the field for 32 offensive snaps, just five fewer than Cook.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Dalton Kincaid: 8 targets, 8 receptions, 75 yards

Welcome to the NFL, kid! After missing last week’s game with an injury, Dalton Kincaid bounced back with a career game, pulling in eight catches for 75 yards. He even made a huge fourth-down conversion, pulling in a four-yard pass from Allen on fourth-and-two in the final four minutes, setting up a go-ahead touchdown. There are likely some leagues where Kincaid was let go after missing last week. He should garner a hefty waiver bid in those places he is available, especially after this performance.

Stefon Diggs: 12 targets, 6 receptions, 58 yards, TD

Old Reliable, Stefon Diggs generated double-digit targets and pulled in six receptions including a highlight-reel 25-yard touchdown pass.

What a play!

📺: @CBS pic.twitter.com/TCeCjCJ6XA

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 22, 2023

One of the most consistent fantasy options in the game, Diggs has registered at least 17 (PPR) fantasy points in six of seven games this season.

Khalil Shakir: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 35 yards

Khalil Shakir was on the field for just 24 offensive snaps (compared to 68 and 62 for Davis and Diggs, respectively) but pulled in four catches on 20 routes run. His efficiency and usage are likely unsustainable, and based on his limited playing time he is not yet viable in fantasy. However, he is a name to watch as he may cut into Davis’ playing time if the latter continues to be inconsistent.

Dawson Knox: 3 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards

Dawson Knox caught just one pass for the third time this season, disappointing fantasy managers that started him. Even more heartbreaking, he had an easy touchdown catch called back for offensive pass interference when Murray ran directly into the New England defensive back on a clear pick play. With Kincaid’s growing role and success, it’s possible that Knox will continue to see a decline in production. However, with the Bills’ heavy use of 12-personnel, he should continue to be on the field relatively consistently.

Gabe Davis: 5 targets, 1 receptions, 6 yards

Gabe Davis might as well have been wearing camouflage on Sunday afternoon because he basically disappeared. He was targeted five times but caught just one pass for his second-consecutive disappointing fantasy performance.

Deonte Harty: 1 target, 1 reception, 10 yards

Trent Sherfield: 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards

New England Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones: 25/30, 272 Yards, 2 TDs | 3 Carries, 11 Yards

Would you believe this is the same guy that was benched just a couple of weeks ago? Just two weeks after riding the pine in favor of Bailey Zappe,  Mac Jones came out and led his team to a crucial victory over their biggest rival, outplaying a Pro Bowl-caliber opposing quarterback in the process.

Jones led the Patriots on three touchdown drives of 45 yards and 66 yards but the most impressive was his final act. Trailing by three points with 1:58 to play, Jones went 7-for-8 for 70 yards to lead New England down the field for the game-winning touchdown in what was perhaps the best sequence of his young career. Jones found Mike Gesicki on a quick slant with 15 seconds remaining to cap the go-ahead drive and seal the victory for the Patriots.

PATRIOTS UPSET THE BILLS WITH SECONDS LEFT 😱

(via @Patriots)pic.twitter.com/891HAW00fB

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 22, 2023

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson: 9 carries, 34 yards | 6 targets, 6 receptions, 51 yards

Rhamondre Stevenson is clearly the primary back in this offense, in spite of the recent surge in production and touchdowns from Ezekiel Elliott, the backup. Stevenson was on the field for nearly double the snaps that Zeke was and was much more heavily involved in the passing game with six catches on six targets. He broke a key play on the Pats’ game-winning drive, taking a swing pass for 34 yards to kickstart the offense.

MONDRE MODE!!!@dreeday32 | #ForeverNE

📺 on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/5EqyOBzGa4

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 22, 2023

Ezekiel Elliott: 11 carries, 31 yards, TD | 1 target

Ezekiel Elliott scored a short-yardage touchdown for the second consecutive week, pushing in a three-yard rush for a score on the Pats’ second drive of the day. He was in the game for every play of that drive after Stevenson was on the field for every play of the first drive of the game. Zeke was on the field for 21 offensive snaps and carried the ball 11 times, but ran just four routes. His lack of involvement in the passing game limits his ceiling.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Kendrick Bourne: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 63 yards, TD

With JuJu Smith-Schuster out with a concussion, Kendrick Bourne stepped up as the clear WR1 in the Patriots offense, running a team-high 31 routes on 57 offensive snaps (out of 60). Though his usage may be reduced once the New England receiving corps is at full strength, Bourne has clearly earned the trust of Mac Jones and the coaching staff. After losing a fumble in the second half that resulted in a Bills’ touchdown drive, Bourne rebounded with a touchdown catch of his own in the fourth quarter.

Now that’s how you cap off a drive.

Touchdown Kendrick Bourne. pic.twitter.com/L13zFf9g2t

— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) October 22, 2023

Pop Douglas: 1 carry, 20 yards | 6 targets, 4 receptions, 54 yards

After missing last week with a concussion, Pop Douglas was on the field in the slot for the Patriots on nearly every play with a three-receiver set. With 25 routes run on 37 offensive snaps, Douglas earned six targets and one carry as well. Douglas provides the Patriots with a speedy gadget option, explosive playmaker, and outstanding punt returner as well. Look for him to be more involved in different ways going forward.

Pop Douglas is a legit play maker.

Needs to stay on the field at all times! https://t.co/a76z5ycHtA

— Savage (@SavageSports_) October 22, 2023

Pharaoh Brown: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 51 yards

Primarily used as a blocking tight end, Pharoh Brown was on the field for just seven fewer snaps (23) than both Henry and Gesicki (30 each). He leaked out for a pair of big gains but ran just five routes.

Hunter Henry: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 27 yards

Hunter Henry ran 15 routes on 30 offensive snaps but seems to be part of a tight end platoon with Gesicki and Brown. Fantasy managers may want to look elsewhere for more efficient production at the tight end position moving forward.

DeVante Parker: 1 target, 1 reception, 8 yards

Devante Parker may be a trade candidate after yet another uninspiring performance, his fifth straight game with two or fewer catches.

Mike Gesicki: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 5 yards, TD

Mike Gesicki split snaps right down the middle with Hunter Henry, and made the biggest play of the game, pulling in the game-winning touchdown. He then ruined it with his disgusting rendition of the Griddy immediately after.

Jalen Reagor: 1 target, 1 reception, 11 yards

James Cook: 1 target, 1 reception, 2 yards