What We Saw 2023: Week 7

The What We Saw team recaps everything you missed from Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season

Drew DeLuca
What We Saw 7 Months Ago
Series Navigation
Introduction
Jaguars @ Saints
Lions @ Ravens
Raiders @ Bears
Browns @ Colts
Bills @ Patriots
Commanders @ Giants
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Steelers @ Rams
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Packers @ Broncos
Chargers @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Eagles

Dolphins @ Eagles

Final Score: Eagles 31, Dolphins 17

Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter)

 

Fresh off a disastrous loss to the New York Jets, the Eagles showed up to Lincoln Financial Field with something to prove. I’m not sure that they proved it offensively, as Jalen Hurts looked a little careless with the football at times. Hurts threw a puzzling interception that went for six points in the other direction and fumbled the ball early in the game, and the offense flowed almost exclusively through A.J. Brown in the second half. The litmus test for this offense, as Eagles fans might know, is whether this version looked like the historically good 2022 offense, and it didn’t quite get there today–Devonta Smith was very quiet in the passing game and the red zone offense left a lot to be desired. So, Philadelphia still has work to do–yet they’re 6-1 and scored 31 points today.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins were quiet for all but a handful of plays. Miami’s offense could only muster 10 points despite having a few short fields to work with, thanks to turnovers and solid special teams play, and all of those points came in the first half. They could not get their run game going in full, which meant that the brunt of the offensive load was on the shoulders of the passing game…which is a tough place to be against one of the league’s top pass-rushing units. It’s not often that teams can overcome 10 penalties for 70 yards, with minimal run-game help, against any team, even with an offense as explosive as the Dolphins. They were often behind the sticks due to careless penalties, and there were a handful of plays where the team didn’t look like it was on the same page. Snaps were low and run plays stalled without much Eagles influence. Even Tyreek Hill, who was unguardable as usual, dropped a ball with absolutely no one in his vicinity, stalling a really solid drive. Miami shouldn’t have too much trouble getting back on its feet next week, playing a relatively toothless Patriots team.

 

Three Up

  • Tyreek Hill – It continues to boggle the mind that Hill isn’t scoring 30 points for the Dolphins on his own. The Eagles’ corners had no answer for Hill, who simply ran right by them more often than not. Hill saw an absurd 15 targets, by far a season-high, and turned that into approximately 26 fantasy points in full PPR leagues.
  • A.J. Brown – Brown’s Instagram handle is “1kalwaysopen,” and that seemed about spot-on for Brown this week, as he torched Miami’s secondary for gains in all areas of the field and on a variety of routes. He is this Philadelphia offense for the time being–Jalen Hurts looks to him in just about any situation of which you can think: short-yardage, security blanket, deep shots, etc.
  • Dallas Goedert – Goedert’s arrow is finally looking up after a very slow start to the season. In prior games, to get Goedert going, the Eagles would often scheme up very specific plays to force the ball to Goedert, like TE screens. Today, it felt like Hurts found Goedert more organically and on more than 1 type of route. They still scripted some early looks for Goedert — on National TE Day, no less — but he was more integrated into the offense, and you should feel very comfortable starting him in the following weeks.

Three Down

  • Raheem Mostert – Normally able to rip off huge chunk gains on the ground, Mostert was mostly bottled up tonight. To be clear, when I say “bottled up,” I mean he didn’t average over 6 yards per carry; he “only” hit 5 yards per carry, but he didn’t find the end zone and he and the Dolphins couldn’t find much success when they involved him in the passing game this week. His value is inflated in part by some absurd touchdown success, so he was likely to face some fantasy regression, but to only tally 6 points in full PPR is hard to swallow when in prior weeks we’ve been treated to some absurd points totals.
  • DeVonta Smith – As I alluded to earlier, the Eagles offense has looked a little more stagnant this season than in 2022, and that’s meant DeVonta has had a frustratingly inconsistent workload. He only garnered 5 targets today, a week after his 11-target showing. What’s missing this season? The downfield looks that key in on Smith’s catch-point prowess. Smith is at his fantasy best when Hurts “grips it and rips it” downfield, and Hurts hasn’t been comfortable looking downfield as often, and when he does, those deep looks are going to A.J. Brown in greater frequency.
  • D’Andre Swift – A victim of ultra-high expectations, not poor play, Swift wasn’t able to reach his usual lofty fantasy score because the Dolphins did an excellent job of stymying the Eagles’ offensive line. Swift looked electric when he got into space but there wasn’t much space to work with today, and Swift could “only” muster 4.1 yards per carry on the ground and 13 receiving yards.

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Quarterback

 

Tua Tagovailoa: 23/32, 216 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT,  3 sacks | 1 carry, -3 yards

The main difference between Tua’s performance in weeks prior and this week was the limiting of explosive plays made after the catch. Similar to Brock Purdy in the San Francisco offense, Tua’s fantasy value is predicated on his receivers accumulating yards after the catch, and that was completely lacking tonight.

Notes

  • Heading into this week, Tagovailoa was third-lowest among starting NFL QBs in terms of time spent in the pocket. That speed in ball disposition prevented him from taking too many sacks and helped him avoid some of the brutal hits he took last year. That speed and decisiveness wore off as time went on, as Tagovailoa held onto the ball for a relative eternity, allowing Philadelphia’s ferocious defensive line to get to him for multiple sacks.

Missed Opportunities

  • Tua underthrew a pass that was ultimately intercepted by Darius Slay. It doesn’t look like there was any funny business with this play, it just looked like Tua underthrew this one by mistake.
  • The Dolphins also had a case for a pass interference/facemask call on poor coverage by James Bradberry. He was looking for Cedrick Wilson but the referees seemed to have missed it. The very next play was a Jalen Hurts pick-six, so the Dolphins got the points they were looking for, but not in a way that was beneficial for fantasy investors.

 

Running Back

 

Raheem Mostert: 9 carries, 45 yards | 3 targets, 1 reception, 6 yards

There just wasn’t much there for Mostert tonight. The Eagles did a terrific job of limiting Mostert’s explosive speed on the edges; they forced him out of bounds or stopped him behind the line of scrimmage on several plays, which limited his fantasy output significantly. Nothing better exemplifies that than the fact that Mostert didn’t hit positive rushing yardage until the first drive of the second half. I don’t think this is emblematic of some larger issue in the Dolphins’ offense; Mostert can’t always hit 100 rushing yards and 2 scores, but his track record this season and relative lack of competition should get him back to normal next week.

Missed Opportunities

  • On Tua’s interception, Mostert was the one being targeted in the end zone.

 

Salvon Ahmed: 2 carries, 3 yards | 2 targets, 0 receptions

Jeff Wilson Jr.: 0 carries | 1 targets, 1 reception, 4 yards

Mostert was the only running back of note in this game, as the Dolphins hardly played Wilson in his return from injury, and they spent most of the game chasing points and hardly ran the ball, finishing with their lowest number of carries on the season with just 12.

 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

 

Tyreek Hill: 15 targets, 11 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD

Hill had a monster game in terms of target share but it didn’t lead to a correspondingly tremendous fantasy output (of course, this is relative to his usual production), and that was thanks to a couple of uncharacteristic drops. Hill had the one you saw earlier, as well as this one:

Notes

  • I often wondered how the Eagles were going to stop Hill this game, as it seemed like he was in space with room to do more damage on just about every play. That’s borne out by his average receiver separation, which showed that he was getting plenty of space from his defenders. Check out his TD grab, which exemplifies how dangerous Hill’s speed can be on any given play:

https://twitter.com/TSV__1/status/1716268371606704270

  • Bradberry and his help coverage, Terrell Edmunds, have no prayer of stopping this play, especially once Hill accelerates. Here’s a different and more illustrative look at it:

Missed Opportunities

  • Drops, drops, drops!

 

Jaylen Waddle: 6 targets, 6 receptions, 63 yards

Waddle has mostly returned to form after a slow couple of weeks in the receiving yardage column. His output was a bit limited due to injury, but when Waddle and Hill were on the field at the same time, the Eagles didn’t have much of an answer.

Notes

  • Waddle briefly left the game due to a back injury, which slowed his fantasy output for a bit. He was ultimately able to return to the game after doing some jogging along the sideline.

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles

 

Quarterback

 

Jalen Hurts: 23/31, 279 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 3 sacks | 11 carries, 21 yards, 1 TD

Another week, another Hurts “Brotherly Shove” TD. It’s just a cheat code for fantasy points — and real-life points! — at this juncture. It’s a good thing Hurts is able to recoup fantasy value via the Brotherly Shove because the running aspect of his game has gone away again. Hurts didn’t look comfortable leaving the pocket and venturing past the line of scrimmage for rushing yardage, which is key for QB fantasy production. The same issue plagued Hurts’ fantasy investors earlier this season, and after the Eagles finally turned him loose against the Rams, it looked like Hurts was going to return to his full form, but that hasn’t been borne out yet. It looks like it may be due to an injury:

  • This will be something to monitor moving forward, and it should temper expectations about Hurts’ rushing production until he shows otherwise.

Notes

  • When Hurts felt (un)comfortable enough to leave the pocket and had the chance to make a play out of structure, he made an incredible pass to A.J. Brown to turn what looked to be a drive-killing pressure from Miami into a huge passing play:

  • Hurts later found Brown for a beauty of a pass downfield:

 

Missed Opportunities

  • Hurts has struggled with ball security recently, with 5 INTs in his last 3 games. The INT today was ugly:

 

Running Back

 

D’Andre Swift: 15 carries, 62 yards | 3 targets, 3 receptions, 13 yards

Swift didn’t have boatloads of running room like he normally does, so he couldn’t rack up the video game numbers as he’s done in weeks past, but he made the most of what he had, making first tacklers miss and tacking on yards after first contact.

The Eagles chose to lean on the passing game a little more this game since Swift wasn’t finding a ton of success, but the passing work went through other talented Eagles’ pass-catchers, which is the nature of this offense. On the bright side, Swift still had 15 carries and rebounded quite well from his dud of a running performance against the Jets last week, so his workload remains sustainable for fantasy purposes.

Missed Opportunities

  • Swift was mere yards away from an “adding insult to injury” TD with 2 and a half minutes left in the game. Had the game been a bit closer, Swift probably would’ve seen a couple of opportunities in the red zone to get that TD he probably deserved.

  • Speaking of adding insult to injury, Swift was the only runner for Philadelphia that didn’t score a TD. The insurance TD went to Kenneth Gainwell (more below).

 

Kenneth Gainwell: 8 carries, 16 yards, 1 TD

The Kirk Cousins of running backs — takes what is given and creates minimal additional value — had a surprising number of carries today. It certainly didn’t seem like Gainwell had 8 carries, but it’s because Gainwell’s workload comes in short-yardage situations, for some reason. Gainwell, who stands at an imposing 5 feet and 9 inches and weighs a whopping 201 pounds, is the Eagles’ short-yardage and red zone Guy, and I simply cannot figure out why, given that Philadelphia still has Rashaad Penny on the roster and, at one point, had Trey Sermon waiting on the practice squad, both of whom are, according to the consensus, tougher runners. Gainwell is an extremely solid blocker and excels in pass protection — and thus earns his spot on the field — but that doesn’t necessarily mean he needs to be receiving goal-line carries.

Gainwell’s role allows him to score the easy red zone TDs, although I have to give props to Gainwell for showing excellent athleticism to stay on his feet for this score:

  • Unfortunately for my Swift fans out there, he has to contend with supreme blocker Gainwell and Jalen “600 lb. squatter” Hurts for goal-line work, which is unfortunately going to limit his fantasy output in some weeks.

 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

 

A.J. Brown: 15 targets, 10 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD

What’s there to say about Arthur Juan Brown that hasn’t already been said? The man is, unquestionably, a fantasy WR1 and a real-life top 5 WR in football. Enjoy his run of production because I assume at some point that DeVonta Smith will start to feature a bit more heavily in the game plan because he’s too good to see just 5 targets a game, but for now, this Eagles offense flows through AJB.

 

Dallas Goedert: 5 targets, 5 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD

Goedert found the end zone today, for the second time in three games, on Ol’ Reliable: A TE screen, with former rugby stud and scarily large man Jordan Mailata leading the way on blocks.

This is the kind of fantasy output we got accustomed to seeing from Goedert last year, and it’s thanks to Hurts finding him in a variety of looks that Goedert was finally able to break out of his prolonged early season slump. For example, here’s Hurts finding Goedert on a slant on a third and long, the kind of play the Eagles were sorely lacking in the first few weeks:

  • Goedert has now tacked on 236 yards in his last 3 games after totaling just 88 in his first 4. It’s safe to say now that Goedert is back and startable every week.

 

DeVonta Smith: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 49 yards

Perhaps the most notable part of DeVonta Smith’s evening was this meet-up before the game:

Otherwise, there wasn’t much to write home about as far as DeVonta’s workload. I assume he’ll break out soon and have one of those games like he had against Minnesota in Week 2 because he’s too talented to be this underutilized in this offense. The Philadelphia offense hasn’t really started to click as much as expected, and that can be attributed to a number of things: OC Brian Johnson’s meek red zone play-calling, regression in the passing game from last year, and additional injuries. But the team is too talented to run the offense strictly through such a small number of players.

Series Navigation
Introduction
Jaguars @ Saints
Lions @ Ravens
Raiders @ Bears
Browns @ Colts
Bills @ Patriots
Commanders @ Giants
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Steelers @ Rams
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Packers @ Broncos
Chargers @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Eagles

One response to “What We Saw 2023: Week 7”

  1. James Warren says:
    October 23, 2023 at 1:05 pm

    Awesome commentary, on both teams and deep inside the offense of both teams. I am not a fantasy football guy, but this kind of analysis is excellent for anyone who wants to learn about the teams followed.

    Reply

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