Kickoff: Thursday, November 11th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Betting Odds: BAL -7.5, 46.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX, NFL Network
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Last week Lamar Jackson rushed for 120 yards, the second time this season that he has eclipsed the century mark, and the tenth time in his career. This tied Michael Vick’s record, and he accomplished this in just 54 games. It took Vick 143. What Jackson has been able to achieve has been fun to watch, and fantasy managers are loving his overall QB2 start. This week Jackson faces a Dolphins defense that has given up 25 points per game to the position in the last few weeks. At 28 fantasy PPR points per game, Jackson isn’t that far off of his MVP season of 30 per. Don’t even think about benching him.
Devonta Freeman (Start, Flex), Le’Veon Bell (Sit), Latavius Murray (Sit), Ty’Son Williams (Sit)
With so much rushing volume coming directly from Jackson, the Ravens backfield is left with a limited scoring opportunity. Combined with the musical chairs the Ravens have played in the backfield, and it is tough to properly evaluate the rush corps week to week. however, there has been a bit of clarity since Latavious Murray exited the lineup due to an ankle injury. Last week Devonta Freeman worked as the lead back, both as a rusher and receiver, and had a decent day (13-79, 3-2-4-1). Le’Veon Bell earned 11 carries (11,48) and while he ran pretty well, he wasn’t a factor in the passing game. Murray is expected to be out again this week and Freeman should again lead the backfield. He is a decent Flex start if needed. Ty’Son Williams appears to be at the end of the depth chart and can be dropped safely.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Marquise Brown (Start, WR1), Rashod Bateman (Start, Flex), Mark Andrews (Start, Low-end TE1)
Many fantasy managers overlooked Marquise Brown during draft season, after a down season in 2020. In fact, Brown scored 19+ fantasy points just twice since Week 12 of 2019. He was being written off as a third-year bust. Brown has proven all of his doubters wrong, and he has looked like one of the better receivers in the league through nine weeks. Brown has scored 19+ points in six of seven games played and is the current WR5. Brown has looked incredible this season and has struggled with drops at times, so his year could be even bigger. Start him with confidence.
The Ravens are throwing the ball a bit more this season, and that has allowed for Brown to breakout, alongside Mark Andrews maintaining his production. Andrews has been solid all season, and spectacular in Week 5. His fantasy scoring has been down these past couple of weeks, but that has been mostly because he’s played fewer snaps. Perhaps it is health management or game script, but regardless Andrews is seeing plenty of opportunities. His production will come and is an easy TE1 start this week.
Rookie Rashod Bateman played in 82% of the team’s snaps last week after Sammy Watkins missed the game with an injury. Bateman’s target share was a solid 21% last week but he ran just a fraction of the routes that Andrews and Brown ran. Bateman looks like a ridiculous talent when on the field, but with the return of Watkins and unpredictable opportunity, he is a player that is a hold for now but not a clear start.
Tua Tagovailoa (Sit, QB2), Jacoby Brissett (Sit, QB2)
Tua Tagovailoa was a late scratch last week and backup Jacoby Brissett filled in but was unspectacular. Tua is reportedly a game-time decision this Thursday against the Ravens. Tua had been solid in the three weeks leading to this injury, but many fantasy managers hesitate with players coming off an injury. Add the Thursday night aspect, and it may be best to sit Tua even if he plays. Managers in 2QB leagues may find value, but it is hard to trust Tua will be a solid QB1 start this week. Brissett is also a decent low-end start in 2QB leagues but his scoring ceiling is the high teens.
Myles Gaskin (Start, RB2), Salvon Ahmed (Sit)
As the season has worn on Myles Gaskin has earned more and more opportunity as the weeks pass. Last week Gaskin handled 80% of the team rushing attempts and ran routes on 62% of the team’s dropbacks. Gaskin was relatively unproductive, just 36 yards on 20 carries, but his six catches on six targets were enough to salvage his fantasy day. This week he faces Baltimore, who is league average defending the position. Gaskin is a safe start, with the heavy expected volume on Thursday. Gaskin has finished as an RB1 in three out of his past five games and could be hitting his stride. Salvon Ahmed is seeing less than 10 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough volume to trust in lineups.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jaylen Waddle (Start, Flex), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE1)
The Miami receiving corps has been depleted by injury these last few weeks. DeVante Parker was placed on IR and Will Fuller is expected to miss another week. Jaylen Waddle has been the benefactor on the field, leading the team in target share on the season at 23%. These last two weeks those numbers have been at 28 and 26%. This week he faces the Ravens, who have a top 12 fantasy defense against the position. Waddle could struggle in this one but could salvage a Flex play if he continues to get 10+ targets.
Mike Gesicki has been a breakout tight end this season, and he faces the league’s worst fantasy defense against tight ends. Gesicki is an auto-start in this matchup and could have a big game.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)