Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 27th, 2022, 1:00p Est
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Betting Odds: CLE +3, 43.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB2)
Tom Brady is coming off the bye week and looking to lead the Buccaneers into the playoff hunt. They are currently leading the NFC South and could push the gap further with a win. Brady has played well in his past few games. He has had over 250 yards and at least a touchdown in each of the last three games. he gets the browns who are middle of the road in points surrendered to the quarterback position. They are 19th at 15.73. It’s not a great matchup for the ageless one but in his two seasons with Tampa, he has thrown for two touchdowns each game after the bye week. I think you can start Brady as a QB2. It’s a range he has been in five times this season and seems to be getting his edge back as the season progresses.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2), Rachaad White (Start, RB2)
When last we saw the Bucs backfield it looked like rookie Rachaad White had taken over for the veteran Leonard Fournette. The snap share was heavily in White’s favor at 64% to 29%. he also out carried Fournette 22 to 14. It looked like a full take over but it was revealed after the game that Fournette was dealing with a hip injury that probably limited him during the game. Even Ke’Shawn Vaughn got work in the game back in Week 10. The question is what will the backfield look like coming out of the bye as they get ready to face the Browns? It’s a great matchup as the Browns are giving up the second most points to the running back position.
Given the last game’s breakdown, I think Fournette and White are fantasy relevant. I expect the split to be a lot closer to 50/50 with White getting the slight edge. Both can be started as an RB2. White has proven he can carry the load. He got 105 yards on his 22 carries and averaged 4.7y yards per carry. Fournette still managed to get 57 yards on his 14 carries and added a score which was his second in three games. He also saw the only target out of the two. Fournette has done well this year in the passing game, which keeps him in the Rb2 range.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Godwin (Start, WR1), Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Julio Jones (Start, FLEX), Cade Otton (Sit, TE2) Cameron Brate (Sit)
The Buccaneers should come into Week 12 with all of their pass-catching weapons for the first time in the season. It’s a high-powered group with lots of options for Brady and fantasy managers. The Browns are currently giving up the seventeenth most points to wide receivers at 32.52. It will probably come down to matchups and opportunities for who you will start.
Mike Evans has been the consent this season only missing one game when he was suspended for fighting. He has struggled to find the end zone this season only having three touchdowns and not having reached paydirt in the past six games. He was tied for the league team lead in routes run in Week 9 with 27. He will draw a lot of coverage from rookie Martin Emerson. Emerson is rated at 75.7 by PFF.com. It’s not the best matchup for Evans but he will rely on his experience and three inches of height to get his share of the offense. Evans should be started as a WR2
Chris Goodwin has dealt with injuries early in the season but has come on strong since Week 4. In five out of seven games, he has seen double-digit targets in that stretch. He is playing a lot more in the slot with everyone healthy and that would draw coverage from A.J. Green with Greg Newsome missing Week 11 with a concussion. Green rates at 47.7 in his limited coverage snaps. It’s a great matchup for Godwin who should be in your lineup as a sure-fire WR1.
Julio Jones will play the other outside wide receiver and has seen a resurgence in his career with Tampa. In the past three games, he has only 14 targets but has two touchdowns. He will mostly draw coverage from Denzel Ward who rates at 49.7 in coverage. Jones isn’t seeing a ton of opportunities even though he ran 23 routes in Week 10. He is worth starting as a flex play this week. Russell Gage reminds limited in practice with a hamstring injury and I do not expect him to play.
The tight ends are on the fringe of being fantasy stars but with Cameron Brate returning in Week 10, it makes Cade Otton less desirable. Otton played 61% of the team’s snaps which was a vast drop from the 80% + he had been playing with Brate out of the lineup. Brate only logged 45% of the team’s snaps but ran 15 routes, more than Otton’s 10. The Browns are giving up the fourth fewest points to tight ends so not a great matchup. Given that and the two splitting the opportunities I don’t think you can start either.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett (Sit, QB2)
There hasn’t been a player that is more fun to watch than Jacoby Brissett this season. He knows he is on borrowed time as the Browns wait for DeShaun Watson to be eligible to play in Week 13. Brissett has just been slinging the ball around this season. He had 41 passing attempts in Week 11 against the Bills and completed 28 of them for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns. He now has to face the Buccaneers who are giving up the twentieth most points to quarterbacks. It’s not a great matchup but neither was last week against the Bills. He will probably be playing from behind and need to throw the ball around and he has nothing to lose. Even with the carefree nature of his play he only has five interceptions on the year and hasn’t had one in the past three games. I think Brisstee will be in the QB2 range but there are so many other good options you don’t have to start him.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb (Start, RB2), Kareem Hunt (Start, Flex)
The Buccaneers have made their name as a run-stopping team over the past few years and that continues this season. They are currently giving up the third-fewest points to running backs. It’s a tough matchup for one of the best backs in the league Nick Chubb. Chubb has 11 touchdowns on the season and 923 yards. He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. It seems crazy to list Nick Chubb as an RB2 but I think that is generous. He has two games where he had under 10 fantasy points and those were against the Bills and Patriots both of who are stingy with running back fantasy points. The Bills are currently the tenth fewest and the Patriots are giving up the least. The only tough rushing defense that Chubb has done well against is the Ravens who are seventh. It’s only two poor games but the matchup and game script would say it might not be the best day for the running back stud.
The game script says it should be a good game for Kareem Hunt who usually excels in the passing game. He is having a down year as he only has 26 targets through ten games. He had 27 in eight games last season. He does have four touchdowns on the season between rushing and receiving. He is playing on under 50% of the team’s snaps so there isn’t a ton of opportunity for Hunt. He is still a worthy flex play.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Start, FLEX), David Bell (Sit, Flex), David Njoku (Start, TE2)
Amari Cooper might be the most underrated and disrespected player in the NFL. Maybe it’s the fact that he is on the third team of his eight-year career or that he was traded for next to nothing this offseason by the Cowboys. He has been quietly one of the best receivers in the game. he is fourteenth in targets and thirteenth in yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns. He has been the leading receiver for the Browns most weeks. He has a touch matchup this week against the Bucs. He will probably see coverage from Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. They rate at 78.1 and 68.2 in coverage respectively. He is a solid route runner so he should still get open enough to get a fair share of targets. He can be trusted as a WR2.
Donovan People-Jones might be in the middle of the fabled third-year breakout for wide receivers. He already has a career-high 61 targets and is just shy of his career yardage number of 597 with 577 yards. He only has one touchdown on the year which has kept his name off a lot of top waiver pick-up lists. He led the team in routes run in Week 11 with 44 which bests Cooper’s 40. He will face the same tough coverage that Cooper will see but it only takes one big play from D.P.J. to crack into the WR3 range. That is where I expect him to finish this week. It’s a range he has been in the past three weeks.
David Bell has been playing more snaps lately, jumping to over 50% in the past two games. He is lining up 7737% of the time in the slot role which will draw coverage from Sean Murphy-Bunting who rates at 60.5 but also missed a good chunk of the season and just returned in Week 9. I’m not starting Bell even if he does get into the flex range.
David Njoku returned in Week 11 from injury but was outplayed by his backup Harrison Bryant. Bryant played on 73% of the team’s snaps while Njoku only played on 37%. It’s a really good matchup for both of them as the Bucs are giving up the seventh most points to the tight end position. I expect Njoku to get back to being the lead tight end in the offense. While he played fewer snaps he ran a higher route percentage than Bryant at 82.6 to 74.3. Before his injury, Njoku was seeing at least 6 targets a game. He can be started as a high-end TE2 with a huge upside with the matchup. Bryant should be benched if not dropped