Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 27th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Levi Stadium, Santa Clara
Betting Odds: SF -9.5, 43 total via PFF.com
Network: Fox
Writer: Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL on Twitter)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Andy Dalton (Sit, QB2)
Despite an impressive QB8 overall performance last week against a strong Rams defense, Andy Dalton should not be started in fantasy this week. Dalton will hit the road to face a 49ers defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to the quarterback position while registering the third-highest pressure rate among all NFL defenses. But beyond the matchup, the coaching staff has talked about utilizing Taysom Hill more going forward, and we did see that last week. Dalton played on just 70% of the offensive snaps as Hill worked his way onto the field, cutting into Dalton’s already questionable upside. Dalton is a low-end QB2 in Superflex leagues but should be left on waivers in typical single quarterback leagues.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB2)
Alvin Kamara is right on the RB1/2 borderline this week against a 49ers defense allowing the second-fewest points per game to fantasy running backs. Their 3.3 yards per carry allowed is the stingiest mark in the league, and while they have allowed some volume in the passing game to running backs, their 5.8 yards per reception is the fourth lowest among all defenses. We know that the upside is there with Kamara, as evidenced by his 43-point outburst in Week 8 against the Raiders, but for the most part, Kamara has maxed out as a low-end RB1 this year on a weekly basis. Kamara still ranks 4th among all running backs with a 16% target share on the year, but the passing volume is just lower overall in this Andy Dalton-era. We probably need a touchdown for Kamara to creep into RB1 status this week, and considering that he has only three touchdowns on the year as a whole, this matchup doesn’t feel like the week the dam breaks.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR1), Jarvis Landry (Sit), Juwan Johnson (Start, TE1), Taysom Hill (Start, TE2)
Chris Olave has been rock solid this season, especially for a rookie, racking up double-digit PPR weeks in eight out of ten games. His 23% target share ranks 20th overall at wide receiver, and without Michael Thomas around his only real target competition consists of Jarvis Landry, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara. And while this is a tough San Francisco defense, they have been middle of the pack in allowing points to opposing wide receivers. His ceiling may not be the highest in a tough matchup with Dalton under center, but his consistency makes Olave a worthy low-end WR1/high-end WR2 in Week 12.
Jarvis Landry has been back in action over the past two weeks in his return from injury, and the underlying numbers have been relatively positive. He’s led Saints receivers in snaps both weeks, and he has notched a 21% and 15% target share in his two games back. In a better matchup, we could get him to flex status, but in a game where the Saints figure to struggle to score points, the upside just isn’t there. If you’re looking for a sliver of hope, the 49ers have allowed the 11th most fantasy points out of the slot this year, so this is the area the Saints may look to exploit. But with just one game with more than 40 receiving yards on the year, Landry should remain out of your lineups.
Juwan Johnson has a touchdown in three straight games and five touchdowns over his past five games and has solidified himself as a streaming tight end option going forward. Johnson has three straight games with over 40 receiving yards and seven weeks with a 13% or higher target share, so there’s a touch of volume here beyond the touchdowns as well. He’s a relatively low-ceiling option, but one that is available in most leagues if you need a last-minute tight end option.
Taysom Hill has hilariously dropped below the 50% rostered threshold in Yahoo leagues just as his playing time has finally started to increase. Hill’s 42% snap share from last week was his highest of the season, and the coaching staff said that they “realized they were under-utilizing [Taysom] Hill’s unicorn skill set” prior to Week 11. Hill took some snaps at quarterback and carried the ball nine times last week, so they seem to have fulfilled their promise. His lack of pass-catching severely hampers his floor in PPR leagues, but he does have some touchdown upside, making him a high-end TE2 option. And if he begins rotating in more at quarterback, we could have ourselves an unfair advantage at the tight end position.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo (Start, QB1)
Jimmy Garoppolo finds himself flush with pass-catching weapons and a good running game, making him an extremely high-floor option in a miserable year for fantasy quarterbacks. Garoppolo has just one week under 10 fantasy points, way back in Week 2, and has thrown for two or more passing touchdowns in all but two weeks. He faces a Saints defense producing the league’s fifth-worst pressure rate, so while they are just middle of the pack in terms of scoring allowed to opposing quarterbacks, this isn’t a matchup that should scare us, especially in a home game for Jimmy G. He’s just a low-end QB1 so I wouldn’t play him over any of the quarterbacks with game-breaking upside, but he’s an easy pivot from some of the struggling quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Rusell Wilson.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1), Elijah Mitchell (Sit)
Christian McCaffrey finds himself locked into 65% of the backfield snaps in an offense that knows how to get the ball to their playmakers, and McCaffrey remains an elite NFL playmaker. While CMC’s rushing totals have dipped the past two weeks, we should be very encouraged by the passing game work, as McCaffrey has totaled 22 targets over his past three games in San Francisco. McCaffrey has been an RB1 in 7 of 10 games this year and still may have his best days ahead of him after moving out of Carolina, making him a weekly top-5 option at his position. The Saints have been good against running backs in the passing game and look like a tough matchup on paper. But they have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards on the season, and in a game that the 49ers should have a lead in, McCaffrey should get every opportunity to turn in an RB1 performance.
In his two games back from injury, Elijah Mitchell played in 35% and 22% of the snaps in Weeks 10 and 11 respectively. He’s got a shot at a decent day due to his potential efficiency and a shot at a touchdown, but in a week with no teams on a bye, Mitchell is firmly outside of the starting range in almost all league types.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Deebo Samuel (Start, WR2), Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR2), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
Deebo Samuel got back on track last week with 94 all-purpose yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. It was Samuel’s first WR1 week since Week 4, as he has settled into the WR2 range for much of the season. The Saints are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for opposing wide receivers as long as Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined, so we should expect a solid performance from Samuel this week. But with three other players in the 49ers passing game nipping at Deebo’s heels, his team-leading 23% target share may be trending slightly down with the increased competition.
Brandon Aiyuk‘s 22% target share is keeping pace with Samuel’s on the season, and Aiyuk is coming off of a two-touchdown game that put him on the WR1/2 borderline in Week 11. He’s been a consistent presence in this passing game, and he broke a streak of four-straight games of 80+ yards receiving last week. The target completion will hold him back at times in this lower-volume passing offense, but with 11 red zone targets on the year, Aiyuk has been able to consistently score touchdowns to add to his ceiling. He’s a low-end WR2 in Week 12.
George Kittle tends to disappear at times due to his pass-blocking prowess, but his upside is undeniable, and he’s on a heater right now. Outside of a dud in Week 10, Kittle has produced TE1 production in four of his last five games and has been a top-five tight end in three of those weeks. Kittle ranks second among all tight ends in yards per reception and fifth in yards per target, so as long as the 49ers are looking his way, good things are bound to happen. He’s a high-end TE1 rest of season.