Kickoff: Sunday, November 27 at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Betting Odds: PHI -7, 46.5 Total on Oddshark
Writer: Drew DeLuca (@DrewDeLaware on Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Sit, QB2)
Aaron Rodgers is the QB12 on the season, yet he has only one top-10 finish so far this season: He was the QB10 in Week 10 against the Dallas Cowboys despite attempting only 20 passes, his lowest total of the season. Enter the Philadelphia Eagles, who lead the NFL in takeaways. Rodgers will post QB1 numbers again this season, but this probably will not be that week. Expect mid-tier QB2 numbers at best from the future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), A.J. Dillon (Sit), Patrick Taylor (Sit)
Aaron Jones has seen 17 or more touches in four of the Packers’ last five games, finishing as a top-12 RB or better in three of them. He seems well-primed to take advantage of an Eagles run defense that was abused by the Washington Commanders at home just two weeks ago. General Manager Howie Roseman promptly addressed this issue by signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, former Pro Bowl defensive linemen who immediately made their impacts felt in Week 11.
As things stand, Jones will have his work cut out for him against a run defense that made effective mid-week and mid-game improvements last week. Expect Jones to post respectable numbers commensurate with those typically turned in by an RB2. Meanwhile, A.J. Dillon‘s workload has been far more sporadic. He has finished as an RB24 or better just twice this season: Weeks 1 and 6. He’s a desperation FLEX at best this week, and a player we’re avoiding in most formats. Patrick Taylor has yet to see a carry or target this season and can be safely ignored unless an unfortunate fate befalls Jones or Dillon.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Lazard (Start, WR3), Christian Watson (Start, WR3), Randall Cobb (Sit), Sammy Watkins (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Sit, TE2), Marcedes Lewis (Sit), Josiah Deguara (Sit)
Alan Lazard‘s totals of 6 catches for 116 yards in Week 4 have not been surpassed by another Packers wide receiver this season. Lazard himself has only topped 60 yards twice since. However, he has led Packers wide receivers in snap share in each of the past three weeks, and his 25 targets over that span are almost twice as many as that of any other Green Bay wide receiver. Given his role in the offense, Lazard is the safest bet of any Packers wide receiver this week. We expect high-end WR3 numbers from the Lazard King this week.
Meanwhile, Christain Watson has logged as many touchdown grabs in the past two weeks as the entire wide receiving corps combined in the previous five weeks. After an inauspicious first nine weeks in which he failed to log more than three catches or 35 receiving yards in a game, the rookie out of North Dakota State put himself on the map by scoring five touchdowns in two games. His impressive run will likely be interrupted by the tandem of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber cornerbacks who are playing at a very high level this season. Nevertheless, Watson’s undeniable upside renders him startable in spite of the challenging matchup, so expect him to produce numbers you’d expect from a mid-to-low-end WR3 this week.
Randall Cobb led the Packers in receptions and receiving yards last week after a four-week hiatus, but his role is hardly etched in stone. His limited ceiling and volatile floor make him a player to avoid in most leagues. Meanwhile, Sammy Watkins and the entire tight end group of Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and Josiah Deguara should remain on benches and waiver wires in all fantasy leagues. Aside from Tonyan’s Week 6 anomaly, none of these guys has topped 50 yards in a game since Week 2. Of this group, Tonyan is the best play, but too many question marks abound with this collection of inconsistent players who shouldn’t be counted on in Week 12 lineups.
Jalen Hurts (Start, QB1)
Jalen Hurts is the QB3 overall in fantasy points per game through 11 weeks of the regular season. He leads all NFL quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (8) and ranks among the league leaders in rushing yards per game (44.3), putting him on pace for 753 rushing yards on the season. However, only two other teams allow fewer rushing yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks than the Packers, so Hurts may need to rely more on his arm and his backfield in this one. Nevertheless, Hurts remains a high-end QB1 this week and should be started in all formats.
Miles Sanders (Start, RB2), Kenny Gainwell (Sit), Boston Scott (Sit)
Miles Sanders‘ elite fantasy ceiling continues to be capped by a prolific rushing quarterback who vultures touchdowns and a coaching staff that stubbornly refuses to feed him the ball with regularity, despite the fact that he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the game. Sanders is not a major factor in the passing game, so he’s more game-script dependent than he could or should be. However, his ability to take it to the house from anywhere on the field makes him a worthwhile mid-tier RB2 with upside.
Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott don’t see the ball enough to make a fantasy impact, and we don’t see that changing anytime soon. Continue to leave them both on your waiver wire where they belong.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2), Quez Watkins (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Jack Stoll (Sit), Grant Calcaterra (Sit), Tyree Jackson (Sit)
A.J. Brown has underwhelmed over the past two games, as he’s presumably working through a minor ankle injury sustained in a Week 10 loss to the Washington Commanders, a game in which he recorded just one catch for seven yards. Brown responded last week by catching five of seven passes thrown his way for 60 yards. Brown should see a lot of Jaire Alexander, but expect the Eagles to move their star wide receiver around to create mismatch opportunities. We’d be surprised if Brown didn’t bounce back with a strong WR1 performance this week.
Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith has out-targeted Brown 17-11 over the past two weeks. He logged at least six catches in both contests and is quietly raising his floor in PPR leagues. Smith’s impressive catch rate (74.3%) is among the NFL’s best among qualified wide receivers, and we expect him to continue earning Hurts’ trust on the way to a WR3-caliber performance (or better) this week.
Quez Watkins has the breakaway speed to score from anywhere on the field, and better-than-average hands to take advantage of the opportunities he’s given. Unfortunately, he simply doesn’t see enough targets to warrant a spot in fantasy lineups, especially during a week in which no teams have a bye week. Zach Pascal is a great blocker and a solid technician but brings nothing to the fantasy table. He’s simply not rosterable in any fantasy leagues.
Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert‘s absence (shoulder) is creating a massive hole in the Eagles’ offense that can’t be filled by Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, or Tyree Jackson. Don’t get cute by thinking anyone in this trio is going to step into Goedert’s shoes and produce at the tight end position. In the first half, these three backup tight ends combined for more penalty yards (25) than receiving yards (7). All three drew flags, but only one (Stoll) caught a pass. Gross.