Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 17th, 2022, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans Louisiana
Betting Odds: No -4, 43 O/U total via oddhsark.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Sit)
As someone who is holding a lot of Desmond Ridder in dynasty leagues, I am super happy that he is getting the start. Coming out of a BYE week allows the rookie to get extra practice with the starters and focus all of his attention on the Saints. I’m not super happy that it took them this long to turn to him after the not-great play of Marcus Mariota. The fact that they either didn’t feel comfortable turning to him or he just wasn’t out showing him in practice is a telling sign. He does face the Saints who are giving up the 11th most points to quarterbacks at 16.89. If this was Mariota, then maybe you could risk the low-end QB2 play but I’m not trusting a rookie who hasn’t been able to crack the line up till Week 15. Sit him this week.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson (Start, FLEX), Tyler Allgeier (Sit)
The timeshare is in full effect in Atlanta. Both Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier are getting equal work. It’s hard to tell what will happen coming out of the BYE week, but we can try to read the tea leaves that are the past four games. In those four games, both are at 37 carries but the targets skew towards Patterson eight to four. It’s not an overly great matchup for the Falcons rushing duo as the Saints are giving up the 12th fewest points to running backs at 21.35. I think the switch at quarterback suggests the Falcons will lean on the running game which should mean more opportunities for both. While they are both getting into double-digit carries, I like the passing work for Patterson. It puts him into a solid FLEX option while Allgeier is a Sit even though he will likely be in the FLEX range. Allgeier hasn’t scored since Week 8 and has only scored twice this season. While Patterson hasn’t scored since Week 9, he does have four games with rushing or receiving touchdowns and I think his experience will be called upon to help out the rookie under center.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, FLEX), Olamide Zaccheaus (Sit)
This is hard. I want to give you the reader so good information but let’s just face it. You probably aren’t happy with starting Drake London. The rookie out of USC has been hit or miss most of this season with more misses than hits. He has four touchdowns this season, the first two coming in Weeks 2 and 3 and then not happening again till Weeks 10 and 11. He is playing on over 75% of the team’s snaps and most weeks is above the 80% mark and is leading his team in routes run but he hasn’t done much with those opportunities. Even in Week 13, he needed 12 targets to get six receptions for 95 yards. With a new quarterback and probably seeing Marcus Lattimore in coverage, he is in FLEX range for me this week.
Olamide Zaccheaus ties the team led with 22 routes run in Week 13 but only saw five targets catching two of them for 18 yards. It’s not the efficiency or volume you want to see. You can’t start him or any other wideout on the Falcons. Someone may end up catching a touchdown but that’s probably all they will do. The Saints are giving up the 15th most points to wide receivers at 30.05. It’s not a great matchup for them.
Tight ends are usually a rookie QBs best friend so maybe Anthony Firkser or MyCole Pruitt get some added volume but neither has seen over three targets in a game yet this season. The Saints are also giving up the third-fewest points to tight ends at 8.41. You can’t trust either of them.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Andy Dalton (Sit)
There was some rumbling that Jameis Winston could get the start this week coming off the BYE, but Andy Dalton retains his starting role. Dalton hasn’t played well this season. He only has three games where he had multiple touchdowns. He is now facing the Falcons who are giving up the ninth most points to quarterbacks at 17.86. The Saints aren’t a high-volume passing attack. Dalton hasn’t thrown the ball over 30 times since Week 8 and only has done so three of the ten games. You can’t trust a guy who will likely put up 200 yards and one touchdown. He has a safe floor but that floor is just too low.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB2), Taysom Hill (Start, FLEX)
It was a blow to the Saints rushing attack when Mark Ingram suffered an MCL tear in Week 13. It does leave just Alvin Kamara as the only rusher to note for the Saints. You have to hope that Kamara will see an increase in opportunities now that he doesn’t have much to contend with. Kamara hasn’t seen over 20 total touches since Week 8. That was also the last time Kamara scored. The Falcons are giving up the 13th most points to running backs at 23.83. I think Kamara will be the focal point for the offense but he hasn’t been efficient this year averaging only 3.85 yards per carry. He will need to either get in the end zone or see more passing work to be an RB1, I believe he will be an RB2 this week.
I think Kamara is the focal point of the rushing game, but I moved Taysom Hill to the running back group. I think he will see an increase as the backup and change of pace back with Ingram out. He is third on the team on the season with 61 carries which is only one behind Ingram. I’m willing to slide Hill into a FLEX spot this week and hope that he can get a combined 10 opportunities between the run and passing game.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Start, WR3), Jarvis Landry (Sit), Rashid Shaheed (Sit, FLEX), Juwan Johnson (Start, TE2)
Chris Olave has been a solid rookie for the Saints. He has shown that he can be a threat both in the long ball game but also in the volume game. He comes into this week having over 50 yards in six of his last seven games. In that stretch, he has seen at least five targets every week. He only has one touchdown over that span but has been in the WR3 range or better in six of those games. He gets the Falcons and will probably see coverage from Darren Hall, who rates at 62.8 by PFF.com in coverage. It’s not a great matchup but Olave has been consistent enough to be in your lineup as a WR3.
A new name to most people over the past few weeks is Rashid Shaheed. In the past two games, he has played on 53% and 61% of the team’s snaps but has had over 50 yards receiving in both. He has been second on the team in routes run both of those weeks. He hasn’t seen a ton of targets, failing to get over five in either game. He will see coverage from A.J. Terrell who rates at 53.0. His game is predicated on the long ball which is something Dalton has done well with this season. Shaheed is a desperation FLEX play this week.
Jarvis Landry is only playing on under 60% of the team’s snaps and most of them are in the slot position. He hasn’t been great for fantasy only seeing over five targets once since returning from injury. He will draw coverage from Isaiah Oliver who rates at 59.2. the Falcons as a whole are giving up the fifth most points to wide receivers as a whole at 37.48. I’m still not sure I want to start Landry even if he could get into the FLEX range. There isn’t enough volume or snap share for him.
The tight end position comes down to whether Juwan Johnson can play or not. He missed Week 13 with an ankle injury but had the extra week to recover. He was on a hot streak having scored in four out of five games heading into Week 12 when he got injured. If he comes back, I’m starting him as a high-end TE2. The Falcons are giving up the seventh most points to tight ends at 13.63. If Johnson misses time, I’m not sold on Adam Trautman. In Week 13 when he was the main guy he played on 80% of the team’s snaps but only saw three targets and ran only 18 routes. Taysom Hill ran 13. I’m sitting Trautman.