Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 18 at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Betting Odds: CHI +9, 48.5 Total on Oddshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Drew DeLuca (@DrewDeLaware on Twitter)
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (Start, QB1)
Jalen Hurts just became the first quarterback in NFL history to post back-to-back seasons with 10 or more rushing touchdowns in a season. Per Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports, Hurts is also the first player in NFL history to start 12-1 or better, account for 30 or more touchdowns, and commit five or fewer turnovers in the first 12 games of a season. Clearly, the NFL MVP award is becoming a stronger possibility with each passing week.
Hurts has been a boon for fantasy football managers, as well. Through 14 weeks, he’s the QB1 on the season, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Enter the (3-10) Chicago Bears, who have allowed fewer passing attempts than any other team in the league as a result of: 1) a ball control, run-first (and second…and third) mentality and 2) a lack of positive game scripts. The Bears desperately want the ball in their own hands so they can keep opposing offenses off the field.
The Bears are the only team in the NFL who haven’t intercepted a pass by an opposing quarterback over the last five weeks. While we don’t forsee a huge passing day for Hurts in terms of volume, we can’t ignore the fact that only the Detroit Lions (6) have allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks than the Bears (5) this season. Not coincidentally, one of those six belongs to Hurts. Expect the Bears to at least draw even with the Lions in this category by the time Sunday evening rolls around. Hurts may not end up as THE QB1 this week, but he’s as good a bet as anyone to finish in the Top Five. Start him everywhere.
Running Back
Miles Sanders (Start, RB1), Kenny Gainwell (Sit), Boston Scott (Sit)
Miles Sanders has been a polarizing player in the fantasy football community for the past two years in large part due to his usage, or more specifically, his lack thereof. Entering the season, many were insisting that Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott would eat into Sanders’ workload, or worse, force a fairly even three-way split of backfield touches. That hasn’t been happening lately.
Until Scott ground down the clock late in the fourth quarter and scored a garbage time touchdown, Sanders was the only Eagles running back to carry the rock. Over the last six games, Sanders has amassed 97 touches. Boston Scott has logged 31, while Gainwell has only had 26 opportunities…and much of that work is coming when the Eagles had the game in hand.
Sanders put up 150 or more total yards for the second time in three games last week. Meanwhile, only three teams have given up more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs than the Bears over the past three weeks. We expect all of these trends to continue, so sit Gainwell and Scott, and fire up Sanders as an RB1.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2), Quez Watkins (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Jack Stoll (Sit), Grant Calcaterra (Sit)
Little known fact: the Philadelphia Eagles have two WR1s. With Week 12 as the lone exception, DeVonta Smith has actually out-snapped A.J. Brown every week in 2022. Brown has a comfortable lead in the yardage and touchdown departments, but it’s becoming clear that these two symbiotically support one another.
Prior to the Eagles’ Week 6 bye, Smith was the victim of volatile target volume: he saw 11 or more targets twice in his first five games, but drew five or fewer in the other three contests. Over the past five weeks, however, Smith has drawn eight or more looks in every single game he has played. He now offers a significantly higher floor than he did after Week 5, so Smith can be started in all formats with no fear.
Quez Watkins has played fewer than 60 percent of his teams’ snaps in five of his last six games, and the impending return of Dallas Goedert is not a good omen for those hoping to see an expanded role for the speedster. Sit both Watkins and Zach Pascal, a great blocker and a decent route runner who likewise won’t be fantasy relevant due to his minuscule role in the game plan.
One final note: Dallas Goedert is eligible to come off of Injured Reserve before this game, but we can’t see the Eagles rushing back their star tight end unless he’s clearly 100 percent. Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra will continue to hold down the fort as mediocre fill-in options for Philadelphia. Sit both and don’t start any Eagles tight end until Goedert rejoins the fold.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Justin Fields (Start, QB1)
Justin Fields missed practice on Wednesday with an illness and is officially listed as “day-to-day.” Fields is playing through a fairly significant injury to his non-throwing shoulder, yet is still producing for his fantasy football managers. He’s been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in terms of points per game over the past three weeks, and as long as he’s healthy and in the lineup, he’s still a must-start in spite of what appears to be an atrocious matchup on the surface. A deeper dive, however, reveals reasons for optimism.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks, and only five teams have allowed more rushing yards to quarterbacks over that span. Fields’ total of 905 rushing yards so far this season is tops among all quarterbacks, and his 8 rushing touchdowns rank second to only Jalen Hurts. Add it all up, and given a dearth of attractive streaming options this week, Fields remains a low-end QB1 on the strength of his rushing prowess alone.
Temper expectations accordingly, however: as the bottom end of his potential range of outcomes is quite ugly: Fields offers a low ceiling in terms of passing production, and the Eagles generate more turnovers than any other team in the NFL. Oh, and they also lead the league in sacks.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Start, RB2), Darryton Evans (Sit), Trestan Ebner (Sit)
Thanks to Khalil Herbert’s season-ending injury, David Montgomery keeps getting enough volume to warrant a start in situations where he’d otherwise sit. Montgomery has earned 15 or more touches in eight of his last nine games, and neither Darryton Evans nor Trestan Ebner threatens his workload.
Montgomery has seen four or more targets in each of his last three games, a trend we expect to continue in what will likely be a negative game script for the Bears. Since Week 8, Montgomery has earned 17 red zone touches. Evans has zero, and Ebner, who has barely seen action of late, has a total of three over that span. If the Bears manage to get inside the five-yard line, the odds of them calling Montgomery’s number are very, very good. Start Montgomery with the expectation of low-end RB2 numbers.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chase Claypool (Sit), Equanimeous St. Brown (Sit), Dante Pettis (Sit), N’Keal Harry (Sit), Velus Jones, Jr. (Sit), Byron Pringle (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, WR1)
If you just threw up in your mouth reading that collection of names, just imagine being stuck with having to write about them. Please keep me in your thoughts during these terrible times. My editors are making me look under the hood of this Chicago passing attack, but they didn’t say I had to be nice about what I see. The Bears are attempting a league-low 21.5 passes per game and they’re going up against a defense that leads the NFL in takeaways and sacks. None of this is good for Chicago’s wide receiving corps.
I can’t look myself in the mirror and recommend putting a single one of these wide receivers in your lineup. Please, for the love of all that’s holy, sit them all. The only pass catcher who can reasonably be started in Week 15 is Cole Kmet.
The Eagles have given up a few big plays and touchdowns to tight ends in recent weeks, and with Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox likely to lock down any trio of wide receivers the Bears trot onto the field, Kmet should be a fairly sizeable part of the game plan. While we expect an obscenely large target share, we foresee a lower-than-usual volume of pass attempts, rendering Kmet as a low-end TE1.