Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, December 15th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle
Betting Odds: SF -3, 43 total via PFF.com
Network: Amazon
Writer: Tyler Gentile (@808Paperboi on Twitter)
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (Sit)
Purdy looked “purdy” (bet you haven’t read that sentence yet) last week in his first career start. He threw for 185 yards on an efficient 16-21 line with three TDs (one rushing) against the once dominant Bucs defense. Despite the solid start to his career, he is not worth a start in fantasy with the plethora of QBs that are likely available.
It begs the age-old question consistently asked about Jimmy Garoppolo though, is it the Kyle Shanahan system or is it the quarterback? We’ve seen Nick Mullens and (maybe) C.J. Beathard have their moments too in similar spot-start situations. Purdy has surprised many in his first 2 games considering he is Mr. Irrelevant, but there’s a reason why he was the last man drafted this year.
He is also dealing with an oblique/rib injury, but appears likely to go tomorrow. If he is unable, they have NFL journeyman Josh Johnson in the wings ready to go. As a 5/1 ticket holder on the Niners to win the NFC I am hopeful he keeps it up, but let’s see him do it some more before we even consider him in fantasy.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (Start, RB1,)
This is an absolute smash spot for CMC facing one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Seahawks are 28th in opponent YPC, 27th in EPA/rush play, 26th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs. Any way you slice it Seattle is terrible against the run, and they are equally as bad to running backs in the passing game and are 31st in DVOA.
The situation doesn’t get any better either here for CMC. Deebo Samuel is out for the next couple of weeks, which leaves plenty of targets in the short to intermediate range for McCaffrey. He’s an RB1 every week, but this week looks even juicer than most with all the factors at play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR2), Jauan Jennings (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)
Deebo leaves a massive void in the passing attack, and I’m not convinced SF will try to beat Seattle through the air seeing that the Panthers ran all over them last week; however, they obviously can against the 24th-ranked pass defense by EPA/play. Seattle hasn’t allowed the most points to WRs (8th fewest), but they have to TEs (2nd most), so maybe there’s a George Kittle spike week brewing.
The early returns for Kittle with Purdy haven’t been amazing (6 catches, 8 targets, 50 yards across 2 games), but there obviously aren’t many other TEs worth trusting over him. Hopefully Kittle owners get the game he produced the last time he faced Seattle: nine grabs, 181 yards, and two TDs.
As for Brandon Aiyuk, he’s the only viable wide-out option to start in this offense. He and Purdy connected for a pair of deep completions last week with one of those resulting in a TD, but overall it’s hard to judge the chemistry of the two just yet with such a small sample size. Last week was a blowout, and the week prior he garnered seven targets from Purdy resulting in four catches for 23 yards. It’ll be interesting to see where all of Deebo’s usage leads to.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (Sit, QB2)
The Comeback Player of the Year favorite has definitely cooled off as of late, but Geno Smith is still delivering dependable 20-point fantasy days that no one can complain about. With that being said, this looks like a week to bench the #6 fantasy quarterback if there’s a better option available.
The San Francisco defense is as good as it gets. They have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to QBs, are 5th in pass DVOA, and 4th in EPA/dropback. Geno had by far his worst output of the season against them back in week two when he put up just six points. I’d look to alternates such as Mike White (if healthy) in an extremely fantasy-friendly matchup against the Lions.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker (Start, RB2/Flex)
Kenneth Walker returns following a one-week absence and gets as tough of a task as there is. The Niners are 2nd in rush DVOA, 3rd in EPA/play, and have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields. Walker is a start solely based on the volume he has received in the past.
Tamper any expectations if he’s in your lineup, and hope he falls into the end-zone to give you an acceptable score. It’s highly unlikely that fantasy squads have better options than Walker at RB, but if you do, look elsewhere.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DK Metcalf (Start, WR1), Tyler Lockett (Start, WR1), Noah Fant (Sit)
It’s funny to talk a team’s QB down, and then immediately praise the pass-catching options, but that’s what we’re rolling with here. I don’t think the Seahawks will come out with a ground-heavy attack with Walker just coming back. It makes more sense to get the real weapons of the offense, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, going early and often, especially with how poorly their own defense has performed as of late.
Pete Carroll would say otherwise to that idea above, but the Hawks are likely to be in a negative game state thanks to their swiss-cheese defense. Luckily for the pass-catching options, the 49ers are allowing the 12th most fantasy points to WRs. Lockett managed to put up a respectable 15.2 points (.5 ppr) in week 2 against them while Metcalf only had 5.5, but you start your studs in these situations.
Plus, you never know with the Seahawks at home in prime time. They always seem to make things interesting one way or another in these situations. Division clashes tend to typically be a lot closer than most expect due to the familiarity teams have with each other as well. Steer clear of Noah Fant, however, because he’s y’know, not a stud. The Niners have allowed the 2nd fewest points to TEs. Fant had just two catches for 11 yards against them in Week 2.