Game Info
Kickoff: SATURDAY, December 17th, 1:00 Eastern
Location: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis MN
Betting Odds: MIN -4.0 48.5 (per Caesar’s Sportsbook)
Network: NFL NETWORK
Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Matt Ryan (Start, QB2)
The bad first. It’s the playoffs, I’m avoiding playing Matt Ryan if I can help it unless you play with two quarterbacks in your league. He hasn’t put up starter-worthy numbers in the last three games and has eclipsed 20 points only twice on the season. The good, his matchup this week is against a Vikings pass rush that ranks bottom ten in blitz rate, quarterback knockdowns, and pressure rate percentage. They are also middle of the pack in quarterback sacks and hurry rate per drop-back on the season as well. The secondary has given up the most passing yards in the league and the averaging the worst yards per pass attempt on the year. If you’re in a superflex/two-quarterback league, I like Ryan’s potential as a second-tier quarterback. If you’re in single quarterback leagues, I can’t. It’s just too risky, I’m not going to start looking for it now when the fantasy playoffs have begun.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB2/RB1)
The Vikings are middle of the pack for rushing defense on the year. They held Williams (but not Swift) to below four yards per carry in a Lions offensive explosion, but before that have been split open by Knight, Stevenson, and Pollard in their last three games before Detroit. Jonathan Taylor has been on a streak of 20+ carries, 80+ rushing yards, and 2+ completions in his last four games. That includes games against Philadelphia and Dallas, pretty good defenses themselves. I think that gives Taylor solid RB2 volume and if he can find the end zone, he should land in RB1 land.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr (Start, WR2/WR1), Paris Campbell (Start, Flex/WR3), Alec Pierce (Start, Flex/WR3), Granson or Woods (Sit)
Minnesota is giving up the third most air yards and second most yards after the catch as a passing defense this season. Chark, Wilson, and Parker all had double-digit fantasy days and two of them had WR1 numbers in their matchup against the Vikings. Before their matchup against Dallas, Michael Pittman had three games in a row with double-digit fantasy points. Those two points should combine for a solid floor I like to play and if he can get in the end zone, then we have WR1 numbers. After last week, the Vikings are now allowing the most fantasy points to receivers in the league. Slot receivers have been hit or miss against Minnesota, and Parris Campbell‘s numbers on the year are also quite the roller coaster. The matchup on paper is good, but the previous stats have me a little skeptical.
My magic 8-ball says Ryan will face less pressure than he has in the past few weeks, and with an extra week to prepare he should have more time to find openings for Pittman and Alec Pierce. I can respect a roll of the dice with Pierce to see if he pulls in a few sideline bombs, this matchup looks like if you are forced to do it, this could be the time to try it. But if you look at his numbers for the year, the rookie has pulled it off far fewer times than he has come up empty for your fantasy team. Asking a fantasy owner to go ahead with a player that has far more duds than explosions is a tough sell for the opening week of the playoffs. As for the tight end, I don’t have time to see if they’re going to figure out whether they like Kylen Granson or Jelani Woods more in the passing game this late into the year if I made it into the fantasy postseason.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB2)
Everyone’s favorite streaming QB hero, 1 PM Kirk Cousins is here. But all memes aside, his fame is being a real-life NFL quarterback. His fantasy stats have been… okay. Nothing special, and this shouldn’t be any different here. Over his last five games, he’s only thrown multiple touchdowns in two of them. He’s thrown three touchdowns in a game exactly once. He threw for 425 yards last week and had his highest fantasy score on the season at 25 points. The Colts are overall middle of the pack in quarterback pressure. They are one of the lowest in blitz rate and knockdown rate but one of the best at hurries generated. I don’t think he’ll outdo that performance this week and he will be a high-end QB2, low-end QB1.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook (Start, RB2)
So the last few games the Colts have faced the likes of Pollard and Jacobs, so their rushing stat reflects that in them being middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed. However, Dalvin Cook‘s recent stats have been pretty low. Owners are probably frustrated with 3 of his past 4 games netting them less than 10 fantasy points. Against the Patriots and Lions, he averaged below two yards per carry. However, before those two aforementioned games, he was averaging over 5.5 yards per carry in games previous to that. I think he lands somewhere in low to mid RB2 territory in this game with 12-14 points on the day because he will fall into the end zone.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Adam Thielen (Start, WR3), KJ Osborn (Sit), TJ Hockenson (Start, TE1)
I shook my magic 8 ball and it said Justin Jefferson is a sit this week. You hear me, Joe? Do not start Jefferson against me this week! Okay, it is worth noting that there’s a strong chance he draws a Stephon Gilmore shadow, but what are you going to do, not start the number one receiver in the fantasy playoffs? (The answer is yes, Joe. You do not start him against me.)
Indianapolis is top 3 in passing yards allowed on the season and is allowing the fewest air yards on completions in the league as well. The last time the Colts gave up over 100 yards to a receiver was back in week 10 against the Raiders (three guesses who that receiver was). So this pass defense makes it quite the gamble with Adam Thielen who in his last four games has had two <5 fantasy points and two > 20-point games. I could see Thielen getting some additional targets if Jefferson finds getting open a little more difficult in this game, but this entire secondary is pretty good so I think it will be difficult for either receiver to go off. KJ Osborn brought in a touchdown last week but before that has only scored more than 5 fantasy points once in the previous five games. That’s going to be too risky for me. And finally, starting the #3 tight end in fantasy, TJ Hockenson probably is a good idea if I had to guess.