Sit/Start Week 3: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 24th, at 1:00PM EST

Location: Historic Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Betting Odds: Packers -2 O/U 42.5 Total via PFF.com

Network: Fox

Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)

New Orleans Saints

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr (Start, QB2)

Two games into his second coming in Louisiana, and there’s a lot to like about where David Carr is headed as the new King of the Land of Mardi Gras. But, the fantasy numbers aren’t there yet. 305 total yards in the air combined maybe makes it look on the title papers a little more like the used Carr that got moved off the Las Vegas lot (That’s so, so terrible. I do not apologize).

What the raw numbers aren’t showing is the improved accuracy with a whole new crew that Carr is putting up there – his completion percentage of 69.7% is 9th best in the league – and that will lead to improved fantasy points as the year develops and the currently undefeated Saints get better with the little finishing touches in the system. As we’re here for fantasy purposes, though, that shallow depth of yardage and scores kills Carr’s value until those start rising. Superflex option only – if we don’t start seeing leaps forward by the end of the month, it may be time to waiver some support. Right now, it feels like there are bigger parades coming.

Running Backs

Kendre Miller (Sit, RB2), Tony Jones Jr (Sit).

So…this is kind of a wild RB room for another week. With Jamaal Williams now hammed out for a while, and Alvin Kamera still a week out on his ‘No Punchies!’ exile, we’re going to see the debut of pre-season promising-looks Kendre Miller. Who is also coming back from his own defective hammy-ham. Awesome.

Behind him will be last week’s stealer of all the fantasy points, Tony Jones Jr., whose two scores last week equal 200% more than he got in three previous seasons in the NFL, two-and-a-half were with New Orleans, and then part of 2022 in Seattle. Anyway, I don’t think I’ve ever thought of him before. The last game’s 39 yards are more than he got in two entire seasons as well. My point is, I’m not looking for any kind of repeat performance from our new friend Tony.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Michael Thomas (Start, WR3), Rashid Shaheed (Start, WR3/Flex), Juwan Johnson/Foster Moreau (Sit)

Derek Carr is keeping both his one and two guys heavily involved so far – 11 targets for Chris Olave, and nine for Michael Thomas last week, making it 19 and 17 respectively for the year-to-date. While I have some concerns that those targets haven’t resulted in any complex end-zone dance numbers for either, I think that’s a matter of time. There’s nothing like a Joe Barry defense to provide ample chance to turn that trend around. I expect at least one to come after a blown assignment by Darnell Savage.  Olave gets the fantasy edge here due to the current better talent and low mileage, but it’s pretty great that MT is back at this level, because I doubted that was going to happen.

Rashid Shaheed is making the most of his chances so far – he’s the only Saints WR to visit the land of six, and while seeing roughly half the targets of his two elders, he’s showing a rapport with Carr and has missed only one of the 10 targets he’s had. However, the successes of these three receivers have come at a price: the complete lack of respect for Juwan Johnson SZN. So far, Juwan has regressed to ‘just another guy’ and ‘not a factor’, and ‘splitting targets with Foster Moreau‘. All terrible developments. Maybe I still hold out hope for down the line, but I’m not running either of these tight ends out in any fashion any time soon.  Also, it doesn’t help these two that performance last week dictates I am forced to include:

Taysom Freaking Hill

Taysom Hill (Start – Flex, TE2, Sit- QB2 – See Your League Rules For Further Definition)

As much as I didn’t want to cover Taysom Hill at all this year, he’s again ruined that by being himself. After Jamaal went down during the high heat of the spotlight, good ole’ Leatherman Taysom rolled back out with 75 yards on nine carries, plus one completed pass for 8 yards and one reception for -1 yards. Anyway, with so many of their actual RB options dinged, Kendre being an untested minnow in the water – and GB having more success in the middle than the outsides so far this year, look for the Saints to break out more Hill nonsense and make them look stupid. If you’ve got Taysom rostered, this is a good week to throw him into a regular flex spot. I wouldn’t put him in an RB slot (if allowed) over most actual RBs, because I think they’ll give Kendre enough time to work something out, and when that doesn’t fly they’ll just start heaving balls, but somehow Hill is going to be involved in exposing the defensive coordinator’s incompetencies yet again.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

Jordan Love (Start, QB1)

(Insert yet another painful ‘Love’ pun here). Now that we’ve got that out of the way, I’m going to put this as clearly as I can express it: I’m starting Jordan Love over Justin Fields this week in my 20+-year-old money league, and crossing all my fingers. I’ve seen enough so far to start believing Jordan Love is going to have a good career here in Green Bay, and though I’m not a big fan of the Week 2 drop of a hundred passing yards on the meter, I’m nonetheless in love with ‘3 passing touchdowns per week’. In the big scheme of things, I suppose if Jordan can toss three Teeds a week for the rest of the year, I probably won’t care if it’s under 200 yards a week.  He’s not taking the spot of Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes (or Kirk Cousins, who remains a stud in fantasy, and a sadness in clutch reality) this early into the journey, and the Saints are going to give him the hardest test of this year so far, but there’s not  His completion rate of 55.8% exposes the growth yet to do with still-too-frequent under and overthrows, but his 11.1% Touchdown Rate is obscene. Ride the lightning friends, feel the Love.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (Start, RB2)****, AJ Dillon & Co. (NOPE)

If you needed any answer a couple of weeks back as to why the Green Bay Packers were seriously in on trying to pry Jonathan Taylor out of Indianapolis, last week should have closed down all questioning. Aaron Jones is a heck of a player, and assuming he is back practicing by late week, feel super cozy about plugging him back into your fantasy lineup. Had he been paired up with JT, this would have been a terrible strain on running defenses across the league, but alas, ’twas not to be. The Saints aren’t slouchy on D so far, but Jones gets his via ground or air and can make opportunities out of little room.  Thankfully, the Saints are giving up 5 ypc so far this year, so an active Jones should have a little room to work with.

However, if Jones sits a consecutive week, that 5.0 ypc won’t matter; DO NOT INGEST any Green Bay running back in case of this emergency. 15 carries for 55 yards is the whole bucket of chum that AJ Dillon slopped onto the Falcons last week, and they ate him up. Dillon is not worth your roster spot at this point; when Jones is active, his change-of-pace production isn’t statistically a consistent committee member. When Jones is out, he’s even easier to contain.  Without the starting left side of the OL, which was already showing more strength in pass protection than ‘blowing open holes’, it’s possible he gets inverse yardage on more than one occasion.  Do not play Dillon. This is as much to Matt LaFleur as it is to you, the fantasy player. Neither Emmanuel Wilson nor Patrick Taylor is worth rostering, let alone throwing out there, unless your Guillotine League is causing you too much stress and you need out.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Romeo Doubs (Start, WR2/3) Christian Watson (Start, WR2*), Jayden Reed (Start, WR3), Dontayvion Wicks (Sit, Flex)  Luke Musgrave (Start, TE2)

This whole lineup is a whole season of Marvel’s ‘What If?’ in a weekly fantasy anxiety attack, I’m not all that sure what to make of it. Having not seen a lick of Christian Watson this year yet, with some reports that GB is just taking it slow to bring him back healthy. Super! If and when he returns, I’d look for GB to get him involved early, he’s got all the ‘special talent’ bursting out of him when he plays. Emphasis on ‘when he plays’. Should this be the week, I like GB using him to establish early explosiveness. THAT SAID. I still like Romeo Doubs overall as the more consistent play as the year develops – I might be nuts, I take the pills that indicate that’s probably the case, but not the week Watson returns.  Low targets last week for Romeo, but I don’t expect that to be the case weekly, so if he’s in the WR1 role on the field this week, run him at WR2.  If Watson returns, I would look for more of the WR3 numbers for Doubs for this week.

Meanwhile, eight targets, four catches, and two scores should have meant if you could grab Jayden Reed off the wire or in a trade, you are now hugging and snuggling him close. Week One looked like Love and the offensive scheme was trying to get Jayden involved, and Week Two proved that correct. I expect he’s going to get his looks and opportunities weekly even with the return of Watson – I’m enthusiastically expecting high Flex-to-WR3 numbers from Reed most weeks going forward.

We also saw action from co-rookie Dontayvion Wicks – 2 grabs on 4 targets and a score, which was a nice little debut, but he’s still got some rawness, and if we see a Watson return this week, Wicks (and Samori Toure) will quickly drift back into their 4/5 roles.  I love stashing him away in a dynasty situation, however – or even with a deep bench. With the early tweaks to both Doubs and Watson already this year, should either develop into ‘nagging’ or ‘problematic’ or ‘shutting this guy down’, Wicks will get his chances.  Luke Musgrave has been involved in both opening weeks, enough to keep him in the conversation for upcoming bye weeks or even as a low-end starter in deeper leagues prior to then.