Sit/Start Week 3: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 24th, 4:25 PM ET

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Missouri

Betting Odds: KC -12.5, 47.5 total via PFF.com

Network: FOX

Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)

Chicago Bears

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields (Start QB2)

In a year where there seemed to be so much promise and potential for the third-year quarterback out of Ohio State, he has fallen flat on his face through two weeks. Justin Fields, who recently suggested the blame should be on the coaches, has thrown three interceptions and has struggled to move the ball consistently. He is PFF’s 29th-ranked QB and 32nd-ranked passer. The bright side is that mobile QBs will always have upside in fantasy, and Fields has been able to run for 62 yards and a touchdown through two games. Unfortunately, the mobility isn’t enough to compensate for his struggles as a passer and the tough matchup ahead to keep him in QB1 territory for me. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and have a top-12 pass rush according to PFF (Fields has already taken 10 sacks this season). He is undoubtedly a QB2, but it may be time to pull him from the QB1 spot.

Running Backs

Roschon Johnson (Start, FLEX), Khalil Herbert (Sit)

You didn’t have to spend a whole lot back in August to get any of the Chicago running backs on your fantasy squad, and there seems to have been a good reason behind that. The offense has struggled as a whole, and neither Khalil Herbert nor Roschon Johnson has played even 50% of the offensive snaps. Herbert leads the team in carries and he’s only averaging eight per game. No individual running back on this team is getting enticing enough volume from a fantasy perspective. This week is especially tough considering the Chiefs have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to the RB position and the Bears may need to air the ball out to keep up. They are both fringe low-end FLEX plays at best, but I like Johnson by a hair considering Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy seem to prefer the rookie in passing situations.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

DJ Moore (Start, WR3), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Chase Claypool (Sit), Cole Kmet (Start, TE1)

No position group on the Bears has been hurt more by their offensive struggles than the wide receivers. DJ Moore leads the unit in fantasy points with a meager 20.9 on the season (good for WR48) in full-point PPR leagues. It feels eerily similar to his time in Carolina where they just couldn’t figure out how to get him the ball and develop him into a star receiver. He is playing 91.9% of offensive snaps but has only been targeted on 11% of his routes run. This week presents a matchup to be less than enthusiastic about given Moore only has the 30th-ranked matchup of all WRs per PFF. The only two things keeping Moore afloat for fantasy viability are his raw talent and the potential for higher-than-normal volume as the Bears try to keep up with the Chiefs through the air. The upside makes Moore a WR3.

Darnell Mooney left the game early last Sunday but played 83.8% of snaps in Week 1 and was able to haul in four receptions and a touchdown. Chase Claypool was able to catch three passes and a touchdown of his own in Mooney’s absence last week. It’s still not certain if Mooney will play, but this receiver situation behind Moore seems like one to stay away from either way. Mooney and Claypool are the 84th and 122nd graded WRs respectively by PFF. Both have been dependent on touchdowns for fantasy relevance in the last two weeks. While the game script may be beneficial for the receivers, the Chiefs are ultimately a respectable defense who have allowed the 13th fewest fantasy points to the position this year. There is too much uncertainty with the Chicago receiving depth to get excited about starting any of them beyond Moore.

Tight-end Cole Kmet does have some intrigue this week. He has played 97.3% of offensive snaps for the Bears and has the fourth-highest target share of all tight ends in the league at 22%.  The Chiefs have allowed at least six receptions to the tight-end position in each of their first two games which makes this an even more exciting matchup. I’d feel comfortable firing up Kmet as a volume-based, back-end TE1.

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (Start QB1)

The real-life MVP and fantasy QB1 from last year should be locked into your lineup every week if you have him. Despite playing with a lackluster cast of receivers (to put it generously), Patrick Mahomes is still currently the QB5 with over 500 passing yards and 75 rushing yards. This week he faces off against a Bears defense that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks despite only playing against a Christian Watson-less Jordan Love and a written-off Baker Mayfield. Mahomes is as easy of a start as there can be.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)

The results from second-year back Isiah Pacheco have been good but not great so far this season. He is the lead back but is still splitting time with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. In fact, Pacheco has played under 50% of offensive snaps through two weeks. Despite this, a matchup with Chicago may be his chance to enjoy his first boom game of the season. The Bears have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to RBs and are PFF’s eighth-worst graded defense. Additionally, the game script figures to be a positive one for Pacheco in a contest where the Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites. Pacheco should have the opportunity to run out the clock late and potentially score his first touchdown of the season in what could become a blowout. He is a low-end RB2 with upside. While Jerick McKinnon was a waiver-wire hero late last season thanks to an unexpected breakout, he has been an afterthought in the offense this year. He only has five touches through two games which is even fewer than failed first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Any Chiefs running back not named Isiah Pacheco should remain benched.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Skyy Moore (Sit), Kadarius Toney (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Rashee Rice (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)

It is beyond bizarre to have so much confidence in Patrick Mahomes as an elite fantasy QB and at the same time have no interest in any of his wide receivers, especially considering Mahomes doesn’t score the majority of his fantasy points with his legs. The points have to go somewhere. How is none of his wide receivers fantasy relevant? Well, a big part of that answer is future Hall of Famer and recent Swifty Travis Kelce, but we’ll get to him in a moment. For now, let’s focus on the receivers. None of them are viable starters because none of them have a large enough slice of Andy Reid’s offensive pie. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the group in snap share at 72.7% but is only targeted on 7% of his routes run. All other Chiefs receivers are on the field for less than two-thirds of offensive plays. Additionally, none of them have a target share above 13% which is an insanely low threshold considering we’re talking about every wide receiver on the whole team. To put it simply, Patrick Mahomes likes to spread the ball around post-Tyreek Hill. In a game that could become lopsided quickly–which incentivizes the Chiefs to run the ball–there is very little reason to start any of the Kansas City WRs.

As promised, let’s talk about Travis Kelce now. In his first game back this season, he put together a solid but not elite performance. There’s a lot to be hopeful about though. He had a 23% target share and was a favorite of Mahomes in the red zone, allowing him to score his first touchdown of the new campaign. The Bears have the ninth-worst coverage grade per PFF which makes this matchup even juicier. With that said, Kelce should be in your lineup regardless of who he’s playing against.