Kickoff: Sunday, October 2nd, 1 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Betting Odds: DET +4, 50 o/u total via oddshark.com
Writer: Dustin Ludke (Twitter: @theDunit13)
Geno Smith (Start, QB2)
Geno Smith has been very surprising so far this season. He is completing 77.5% of his passes on the season and twice completed over 80%. He led the Seahawks to a week 1 win over the returning Russell Wilson and the Broncos. He faltered in Week 2 and then had a great performance against the Falcons who have a good pass defense in Week 3. Having four touchdowns and two interceptions on the year he hasn’t been amazing, but also wouldn’t have lost you weeks if you started him outside of Week 2. He gets the Lions in week four. The Lions are giving up the second-most points to the quarterback position, allowing on average 23.6 points. It’s a game where Geno could continue to surprise Seahawk fans and managers as a solid option. It’s doubtful anyone will have to start him in one quarterback league. He is an interesting option in super flex and two-QB leagues considering some of the poor play from some guys and injuries. I think Geno is worth starting this week considering the matchup. He always has a high possibility of disappointment but if you need him you can feel confident in him producing solid QB2 numbers.
Rashaad Penny (Start, Flex), Ken Walker (Sit)
The Seattle running back situation is so lackluster this year. Rookie Ken Walker has had a very slow start after having hernia surgery in the offseason. He hasn’t had over five carries yet in his early career. He has seen some passing work but not enough to make him fantasy relevant outside of a desperation flex. He is still worth rostering because Rashaad Penny has a huge injury history and Walker could be worked in more and more as the season goes on. Penny has been solid in games where the Seahawks have been in it. He is averaging 4.41 yards per carrying which is above the league average. He isn’t super involved in the passing game which limits his upside. He does get Lion’s defense which is allowing a league-leading 30.2 points to the running back position. If the Seahawks can stay in the game and not have to revert to a pass-heavy offense, then Penny will be a solid flex play with RB2 upside. I think Week 2 will be the outlier in terms of snaps and carries for Penny.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
D.K. Metcalf (Start, WR3), Tyler Lockett (Start WR2), Will Dissly (Sit, TE2), Noah Fant (Sit)
Who would have thought with Russell Wilson leaving town and Geno Smith under center that both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett would be fantasy-relevant wide receivers and haven’t taken a huge step back from where they were last year? They get the Lions, who are allowing 41.27 points to the wide receiver position which is in the bottom ten. They are also rated the 30th worst by PFF.com in terms of coverage. Both Lockett and Metcalf saw double-digit targets in Week 3, and it’s the second week where Lockett has seen that level of opportunity. Metcalf dominated in the red zone in Week 3 with five targets and caught one for a score. It was the score that moved Metcalf out of the WR3 category into WR2. I don’t love having a wide receiver who is touchdown-dependent, but he should still be a solid WR3 option against the weak Lion’s defense. Lockett has been a WR2 despite not yet finding the end zone. He is catching a high percentage of his targets, which has produced enough yardage to get him into the WR2 range. When he eventually finds the end zone he will easily be a WR1.
There is some concern about who will be primarily covered by Jeff Okudah, who shut down Devonta Smith in Week 1 and Justin Jefferson in Week 3. I believe that Metcalf will draw primary coverage but if the team can move him around enough he should still get his openings. Outside of those two, no one else on the team has seen more the five targets in a game. There was some hope that Noah Fant could continue the moderate production he had in Denver. He has yet to do that in the pacific northwest. Will Dissly has been good but no one has started him. He has scored in two games and in those games, he has had over 30 yards and three receptions. When a tight end scores a touchdown they will be a TE1 but you can’t count on that in this offense. On any given week it could be Dissly or it could be Fant. Heck, even Colby Parkinson scored in Week 1. I’m not starting either of the tight ends but I’m watching to see if one eventually sets themselves apart.
Jared Goff (Start, QB1)
What a surprise Jared Goff has been this season. So far he has seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Lions are only 1-2 but it’s not because Goff hasn’t played well. He gets to continue his surprising season in Week 4 against the Seahawks. They are surrendering 17.51 points to the quarterback’s position and are ranked near the bottom by PFF in total defense, pass rush, and coverage. It’s a game at home that will allow Goff to make his case to the home crowd that he could be the quarterback for the next few years and take the pressure off management to draft one in 2023. Goff will be a QB1 in Week 4, and those who waited on the quarterback in their drafts are seeing a huge return on investment so far. He has good weapons around him and has spread the ball around, and not locked into one or two receivers. He is on pace for his best season ever.
D’Andre Swift (OUT) Jamaal Williams (Start, RB2)
Monday was a bleak day for Lion’s fans and D’Andre Swift managers. It was reported he suffered a shoulder sprain in week3 and could miss time. It’s a tough blow for the running back who was in the top 5 for the season and finally on a team that was putting up points. Even if Swift does play he will be very limited. This opens the door for Jamaal Williams. William’s saw 20 carries in Week 3 and scored twice. It was the second time he had a multi-touchdown game. He now goes from touchdown vulture to a solid fantasy contributor that you can count on. He averaged 4.35 yards-per-carry in week three. He only saw two targets which limit his upside, but Swift got four before leaving the game. It’s a sign that Williams could see an increase in passing plays which will make him even more valuable.
Behind Williams is Craig Reynolds who only averaged 2.2 yards on his six carries in Week 3. Facing a defense that is giving up 25.7 points to the running back position and is ranked 29th in run defense by PFF should make for a winning combination for Williams. He will be an RB2 with an upside if he gets multiple scores. Still being the goal line/red zone back really helps his value.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (OUT), DJ Chark (Star, WR2), Josh Reynolds (Sit), TJ Hockenson (Start TE2)
NEWS: Friday morning puts Amon-Ra St. Brown out. With that news I think it moves Chark up to WR2 as he will be the main focal point with Hockenson who now moves into TE2 category that you can start with upside potential.
ALL HAIL THE SUN GOD!! But for real, how good has Amon-Ra St. Brown been this season? Despite all the offseason naysayers he has seen on average 11 targets a week and had three scores and 253 yards. Even an ankle injury in Week 3 couldn’t stop him. He still had six catches for 73 yards. The Seahawks are giving up only 27.57 points to the wide receiver position but are ranked 31st by PFF in coverage. Despite the tough coverage I still think A.R.S.B.’s talent will overcome the matchup. He is dealing with an ankle injury but was able to come back and play in Week 3 after having it taped up, so there isn’t a huge concern about him missing time. If Swift is unavailable that could mean more targets to go around.
D.J. Chark has been the second fiddle in the offense. He saw six targets in Week 3 yet only caught three of them for 46 yards. This came after a complete bust in week two where he failed to catch any of his four targets. He now looks to be falling behind Josh Reynolds who saw 10 targets in Week 3, catching six of them for 96 yards. There is some history and chemistry between Reynolds and Goff from their years in L.A. I will be benching Chark and probably sending him to the waiver wire. Reynold is an interesting name, but I don’t like the matchup for him this week. Jameson Williams will eventually be back and that will probably push Reynolds back to where he normally is, on waivers, and Chark close to it.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson saved his day with a score in Week 3. His targets dropped to four from the seven he saw the previous two weeks. He only managed 18 yards on his three catches, which would have been a huge letdown if not for the touchdown. Seattle is giving up 14.4 points to the tight end position.