Kickoff: Sunday, October 2nd at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Lambeau Field in Gren Bay, WI
Betting Odds: GB, -9.5, 40.5 Total on Oddsshark
Writer: Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
New England Patriots
Brian Hoyer (Sit)
Brian Hoyer saw limited action last week, playing a clean-up role in three blowout games. The one thing he has going for is his familiarity with the system. This is the eighth year that Hoyer has played for the Patriots, so he knows what he’s doing in this offense. The Patriots with Jones were averaging 248 yards/game, and this offense will need the run game to help open up the offense. I can’t see Hoyer hitting 248 yards in this game against a defense that has only allowed 206 passing yards per game. This is easy, sit Hoyer.
Damien Harris (Sit), Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, High-End Flex)
Rhamondre Stevenson is out snapping Damien Harris, 50% to 38.6%. He’s running almost double the number of routes (48:26) as Harris. Statistically, both Rhamondre and Damien are neck and neck, with Harris leading in rushing yards, 160 to 145, and Rhamondre leading the receiving yards, 34 to 31. The Packers have allowed the tenth fewest fantasy points (13.2) per game to running backs. The Packers’ defense has yet to allow a touchdown to opposing running backs, and this might be the game that changes. I’m starting the RB running the most routes, Rhamondre is a high-end flex, and Damien Harris is a sit this week.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Start, Low-End Flex), Devante Parker (Sit), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
Jakobi Meyers had a limited practice on Wednesday. Meyers has a 29.7% target share this year and was coming off a Week 2 where he caught nine passes for 95 yards. If the target share continues this weekend, Meyers could be the only redeemable player for this receiving core. DeVante Parker had a great day in the absence of Meyers, going for five catches and 156 yards. Before Week 3, Parker was averaging two targets a game, and with Hoyer in control of the offense, I do not trust starting Parker. The Packers are the tenth-best team against fantasy wide receivers, averaging 19.5 points/game. Jonnu Smith is the most involved tight end for the Patriots this year. He’s tallied 11 targets, seven receptions, and 58 yards through three weeks. The Packers are the sixth-best team against the tight end position, and I’m not starting Smith this week.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
Aaron Rodgers is catching his groove these past two weeks against two teams ranked in the top ten for fewest fantasy points to the QB position. Rodgers completed 76.5% of his passes between the two games, and while he’s not lighting the scoreboard on fire, he’s progressively getting better and more comfortable with his weapons. It is hard to believe it, but Rodgers, minus Davante Adams, is looking better. The Patriots currently allow the seventh-most fantasy points (21.9/game) to quarterbacks. Now that Mac Jones is out for this week, I expect Rodgers to tire this defense out, and if the Packers can force some turnovers or three-and-outs, then Rodgers should get plenty of opportunities to score. Rodgers is a startable QB1 this week.
Aaron Jones (Start, RB1), AJ Dillon (Start, RB2)
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are in a split backfield, with Jones getting 60% of the snaps and Dillon getting 52%. Jones currently leads the team with 217 rushing yards and leads the running backs with 76 receiving yards. Both have 12 targets, and this game may come down to who gets the receiving work in this game. The Patriots have a strong run defense allowing 3.76 ypc and zero touchdowns to opposing running backs. Where they are weak is the receiving end, they have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards (133) to RBs in 2022. You can start both in this game, and I’m going to assume that Pat’s defense will be on the field a lot in this game, giving these two plenty of opportunities to score.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Allen Lazard (Start, WR3), Romeo Doubs (Start, High-End Flex), Christian Watson (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Sit)
Allen Lazard, in two games, has nine targets, six receptions, 58 yards, and two touchdowns. Lazard has a 15% target share this year and is very TD dependent so far, so I’m going to start him at WR3. Romeo Doubs had his highest snap share (88%) last week with Christian Watson out. Doubs had eight receptions, 73 yards, and a touchdown in his breakout game against the Bucs last week. This week the Pats’ secondary are going to be tough as they have allowed 17.3 points/game to the wide receiver. I’m starting him as a high-end flex. Christian Watson is back at practice this week but has a Doubs-sized problem ahead of him on the depth chart. Watson has a 21.9% target share so far through two games, but I’m going to sit him this week. Robert Tonyan has seen a 28.6% target share but hasn’t been able to capitalize on the targets. His best game came last week, catching six passes for 37 yards. I’ll be sitting him until Tonyan proves he turns targets into points.