Kickoff: Sunday, October 2nd at 1:00 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
Betting Odds: BUF -3 , 51.5 Total on Oddsshark
Writer: Justin Herrera (@semtexmex93 on Twitter)
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen has been well worth the number one overall pick in fantasy drafts. The league leader in passing yards (1,014) faces the team that has allowed the most passing yards to the QB (1,099). The Ravens have allowed 23.1 fantasy points per game to the QB position, third most in the NFL. Baltimore has given up back-to-back QB1 weeks to Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones, who finished QB2 and QB9, respectively. They have to deal with Allen, who has taken down the SuperBowl champions, the former AFC #1 seed, and was a completion away from a comeback in Miami. Allen is averaging 360 scrimmage yards. He’s almost fool-proof at this point; Allen had two picks in Week one and finished QB2; he also had three fumbles in Week three and finished QB3. If you have Josh Allen, you don’t sit him.
Devin Singletary (Start, High-End Flex), James Cook (Sit)
Devin Singletary is the lead back in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen in the past, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to have a good week. Last week he had nine carries for 13 yards but reeled in nine of eleven targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. Singletary ran a season-high 32 routes and became necessary to get into the receiver rotation with injuries on the offensive line and Dawson Knox not making his presence felt. Expect Singletary to get involved this week, especially with the Ravens giving up the fifth most receiving yards to running backs (162). I’m starting Singletary as a high-end flex this week due to his receiving upside. James Cook got involved last week, catching four passes for 40 yards which is great for his long-term outlook, but I still need to see a breakout before I start him anywhere.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Isaiah McKenzie (Start, Low-End Flex), Dawson Knox (Sit)
Stefon Diggs was coming off the best game of Week 2 for wide receivers and followed that up with “only” 11 targets, seven receptions, and 74 yards. Diggs’ floor has historically been a very startable receiver, and this year he seems to be on another tier. He’s the current leading receiver in yards (344) and TDs (4), and now he’s playing a secondary that’s giving up a league-high 37.4 points/game to wideouts. Don’t even think about sitting Diggs. Gabe Davis was in on 90% of snaps last week and caught three passes for 37 yards. Not the comeback we wanted but this week is against the Ravens, who have allowed three top-five performances in the last two weeks. I’m going to lock in Gabe Davis as at least a WR3. Isaiah McKenzie is coming off his best week, playing 51% of the snaps while catching seven passes for 76 yards. So far, McKenzie has been their top slot receiver, taking 63% of his snaps out of the slot. Look for McKenzie to be a solid low-end flex this week. Dawson Knox’s snap share has gone down from 87% in the first game to 70% in Week 3, and he’s also only averaged three targets a game. I need to see more from Knox before I start him in Week 4.
Lamar Jackson (Start, QB1)
Lamar Jackson is a different breed of quarterback, and much like Josh Allen, he’s just about foolproof. Jackson has been incredibly efficient this year, completing 63% of his passes and throwing 10 TDs to two INTs. Last year Jackson only had two games with 100 yards on the ground; in 2022, he’s matched that in his first three games. He’s also running the ball efficiently, averaging eight carries a game and 81 yards; Jackson’s returning to being a great runner has made him the ultimate dual-threat in 2022. The Bills have been the best team against quarterbacks, only allowing 6.7 fantasy points per game. Even though the matchup is against Jackson, there’s no way that you put a talent like him on your bench, start him with confidence.
JK Dobbins (Sit), Justice Hill (Sit)
JK Dobbins saw a 44% snap share in his first game back from an ACL surgery. I’ll say he didn’t look horrible last week, but he will still need some time on your bench before he can be relied on. Last week he ran the ball seven times for 23 yards and caught two passes for 17 yards. I’m sitting with him this week until he returns to his pre-ACL self. Justice Hill looked promising last week, running the ball six times for 60 yards. He took on 33% of the snaps in Week 3, but I’d beware of Hill. The Ravens seem committed to Dobbins, and also Gus Edwards is returning soon. Sit both this week.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Rashod Bateman (Start, WR2), Devin Duvernay (Start, Low-End Flex), Mark Andrews (Start, TE1)
Mark Andrews is unguardable right now; he’s caught 17 of 24 targets for 193 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games. Andrews is garnering a 37% target share and has the third most red zone targets (6) for tight ends. While the Bills only allow 2.9 points/game to tight ends, they haven’t played one on the level of Andrews. Start him with zero regrets this week. Rashod Bateman only has 16 targets this year and has only run routes on 79.5% of the Ravens’ plays. Bateman isn’t consistent so far into the season, but he has great upside, so I’ll start him as a WR2. Devin Duvernay‘s target share is incredibly unreliable, averaging 2.6 targets a game. The caveat is that he has a touchdown in every game and has one as a kick returner. Duvernay also has two red zone targets, 25% of his target share. He’s a low-end start for flexes because he has plenty of opportunities to cash in a touchdown any given Sunday.
Me likey your sit/starts for each game big time. Mark Borezo