Kickoff: Sunday, October 18th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Betting Odds: GB -1.5, 54 total via Oddsshark
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (Start, QB1)
Even with a bye week under his belt already, Aaron Rodgers remains the overall QB6 so far this year. Tampa Bay is top-four in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far this year, but the Packers are still a top-three team in the league when it comes to offensive fantasy points scored. I believe Rodgers is capable of QB1 numbers yet again, even with the tough match-up.
Aaron Jones (Start, Low-end RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
Still standing as the overall RB4 (even with a bye last week), Aaron Jones is another easy start even with a less-than-ideal match-up this week. Tampa is currently allowing the least amount of rushing yards in the league but is 13th in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. That said, averaging 0.5 receiving touchdowns and more than five targets in each game this season, Jones’ fantasy owners know full well that Aaron is capable of producing all over the field. Plus, the Buccaneers recently lost star defensive lineman Vita Vea for the year, which should open up some space for Jones.
With multiple Packers receivers sidelined, Jamaal Williams had his best performance of the season in Week 4. Williams caught all eight of his targets, making him an intriguing option in PPR leagues. His next highest target total was in Week 1 with four. Assuming he were to get the same eight targets again this week, Williams would be a candidate for flex consideration. Still, with Davante Adams’ likely return this week, I wouldn’t expect such a healthy target share for Williams. He will undoubtedly be in the mix, but I wouldn’t expect RB2 numbers again.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit, Boom or Bust Flex), Robert Tonyan (Start, TE1)
I believe the Packers held Davante Adams out of their Week 4 contest out of an abundance of caution. After the extra week of rest and rehab during Green Bay’s Week 5 bye, Adams should be good to go against the Bucs. Tampa is good, but not great, in fantasy points allowed to receivers in 2020. Adams is the only elite option on this team, so Rodgers should continue to give Davante plenty of targets in what should be a pretty high-scoring game. Fire up Adams with confidence.
Tampa Bay is in the middle of the league when it comes to passing yards allowed per game. That could give Marquez Valdes-Scantling enough opportunities to achieve fantasy relevance this week. Even with Allen Lazard out, MVS has remained a “boom or bust” option in fantasy football. That said, I’ve heard Valdes-Scantling drew most of the coverage that would usually go to Adams while the latter was inactive. Marquez could have more fantasy opportunity if he faces slightly softer coverage, but I doubt it’s enough to get past “boom or bust” territory.
After Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown succumbed to injuries, it was clear the Packers would need to utilize some of their other talents. Enter: Robert Tonyan. The tight end exploded in Week 4 for more than 33 fantasy points and three touchdowns. The Bucs have been top-12 against opposing fantasy tight ends so far this year, but if Tonyan sees a similar target share, he should be capable of TE1 numbers again. It feels a bit odd trusting fantasy production from a Green Bay tight end, but “Big Bob Tonyan” seems like the real deal. More importantly, it seems the Packers will need to continue utilizing him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady (Start, Low-end QB1)
After an impressive Week 4 performance, the pendulum swung back on Tom Brady in Week 5 when he only threw one touchdown for 14 fantasy points. Brady was facing a tough Bears defense that’s been quite stingy to opposing fantasy quarterbacks but will go up against a much easier Packers defense this week. Green Bay is allowing plenty of passing yards, and this game is supposed to be pretty high-scoring, so I’m ranking Brady as a low-end QB1 this week.
Ronald Jones II (Start, High-end RB2), Leonard Fournette (Sit)
With back-to-back 100+ yard games, Ronald Jones II has clearly taken over the lead-back role in Tampa and has a pretty juicy match-up this week. The Packers are allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this year. I have Jones as a high-end RB2 play this week with plenty of upside.
I haven’t heard much news yet, but I would be surprised if Leonard Fournette is inactive in Week 6. Fournette was technically active last week but received zero touches or targets. It looks like Jones is the back to own on this team for now, and Fournette isn’t exactly making a case for himself lately.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR1), Chris Godwin (Start if active, WR2), Scotty Miller (Sit, Flex), Tyler Johnson (Sit), Rob Gronkowski (TE2), Cameron Brate (TE2), Tanner Hudson (Sit)
The good news for Mike Evans is that he has a touchdown in every game so far this year. The bad news is that the yards are not always there for him. Those all-important yards are pretty much the difference between a low-end WR2 day and a WR1 performance for Evans. Luckily, the Packers are allowing enough air yards and points to opposing receivers that Evans should be capable of a WR1 performance this week, especially if this game turns into a shootout.
Chris Godwin has missed the past two weeks with a hamstring injury but has a chance to suit up this week. His practice status on Wednesday will likely reveal more. If he’s healthy and active, Godwin should be capable of WR2 numbers in what should be a high-volume week. Chris was running a bit on Tuesday, but he was not practicing with the rest of the team. He was a limited participant on Wednesday, but that doesn’t tell us much.
Many expected Scotty Miller to step up last week in Godwin’s absence, but he saw zero targets on 45 snaps. Miller has been experiencing some hip/groin ailments lately, which could have something to do with his lack of production. Given his volatile production, I believe Miller is a flex option at best this week with a low ceiling. Tyler Johnson put up 10 points last week with plenty of Tampa receivers hurt, but I wouldn’t expect that sort of production consistently.
The fantasy ceiling for tight ends Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and Tanner Hudson is likely capped with Brady utilizing three tight ends per game. Hudson is doing the least but still took away four targets last week. Gronk and Brate will likely trade-off TE2 production this year, for the most part, capping their fantasy relevance. Between the two of them, they only reached TE1 status this year when Gronkowski was TE11 in Week 3. The upside isn’t there for either. Plus, Green Bay has been the sixth-best team against fantasy tight ends so far this year.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse on Twitter)