Kickoff: Monday, October 19th at 5:00 PM ET
Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: KC -3.5, 55 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX, NFL Network
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Patrick Mahomes had a big fantasy day last week despite an eight-point loss to Las Vegas. Mahomes finished as the QB2 and faces another positive matchup in Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, and have given up 300+ yards and/or multiple touchdowns in four straight games. Buffalo is still finding its way defensively, and while they may see improvement as the season wears on, this week KC will have no issues taking advantage. Mahomes is a top 5 option at the position again this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB1)
After a strong Week 1 performance, fantasy managers have begun to cool on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. My advice would be to just relax. CEH sits as the overall RB12 and has finished as a flex play or better in all five games. He is the lead back in this system, earning a top ten opportunity share of over 76% and dominating snap share too. What’s more, his advanced metrics show just how talented he is with top marks in missed tackles and yards after contact. Backs are scoring at least once a game against this Bills defense, and they allow north of 100 total yards to the position. CEH is a low-end RB1 this week and it is just a matter of time before he explodes.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Mecole Hardman (Start, Flex with upside), Sammy Watkins (Sit, Injury), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill has scored in five straight games, and while he has yet to have his first monster game of the season, it is only a matter of time before that happens. Last week Hill scored a 60-yard touchdown that was called back on a penalty, else his day ould have been much bigger. This week he faces the Bills and Tre’Davious White, who could be back from injury. White has struggled early on, allowing two touchdowns and a 128.1 passer rating, according to PFF. If White does sit again, expect a blow-up game from Hill. Hill is an auto-start and is matchup proof.
A hamstring injury to Sammy Watkins (expected to miss this week) opened the door to additional playing time for Mecole Hardman. Hardman saw 69% of the team’s snaps, his highest total of the season. Treat him as the direct replacement for Watkins, not Demarcus Robinson, and slot him in if you need a boom or bust option at flex. Hardman has three touchdowns from scrimmage in limited work, and the Bills have already given up six scores to the position. This is also a smash spot for Travis Kelce. The Bills have been awful containing opposing tight ends, nearly 80 yards and a touchdown per week. Kelce is an excellent DFS play if you can find room for him in your budgets.
Josh Allen (Start, QB2)
Game script may dictate exactly how John Allen‘s week turns out. Last week the Bills were dismantled by the Titans, and Josh Allen was forced to throw the ball. And while his pass volume is normal for the Bills, Allen was also contained as a rusher and kept outside of the endzone on the ground for just the second time this season. The Chiefs have been solid defending quarterbacks, allowing just 227 yards passing and one touchdown in five games. Allen likes to push the ball down the field and if the Chiefs bring the pressure on him Allen could be in for a long day. He’s a QB2 this week but of course, he always has upside because of his legs. Managers cannot sit him, but he should be able to salvage a decent day.
Devin Singletary (Start, Flex)
Devin Singletary is tough to recommend as anything more than a low-end RB2 right now. Singletary is dominating early-down work, taking close to 90% of team snaps the last two weeks and more than 70% of the rushing opportunities. However he isn’t taking the short-yardage work, and he is an afterthought in the passing game. In short, Singletary is not seeing high-value opportunities, more like empty calories. He is a good flex play this week, on volume alone however, the Chiefs are stingy at the goal line. They are allowing 126 yards per game on the ground. Singletary should be able to escape with a startable week but will rely on long scores for a big day.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR2), John Brown (Sit), Cole Beasley (Sit), Gabriel Davis (Start, Flex, WR3 if Beasley/Brown are out)
Stefon Diggs is clearly Allen’s preferred target, and with teammates in and out of the lineup last week, he funneled most targets Diggs way. His managers should be pleased and expect the Bills to throw the ball this weekend to keep pace with the explosive Chiefs offense. Diggs value would increase if John Brown (calf) or Cole Beasley (foot, hamstring) were to miss this game. Pay attention to practice reports. Should either miss this game, Diggs gets a slight bump and if both are out Gabriel Davis becomes a sneaky flex play.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog on Twitter)