Kickoff: Sunday, October 18th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: MIA -8.5, 47.5 total via Oddsshark
New York Jets
Sam Darnold (Sit), Joe Flacco (Sit)
As of writing, Sam Darnold is still questionable with a shoulder injury, however, he did throw in practice on Monday. He has spoken about wanting to play in this game, but even if he does are you really going to start him? He’s currently QB27 for fantasy purposes and besides Jamison Crowder, he has nobody to throw to. And Miami’s defense, who have allowed the 13th most yards through the air this season, has improved over last year’s debacle. They also have 14 sacks on the season, which is 9th most in the league. All of this is to say that for fantasy purposes, whether it’s Darnold or Joe Flacco suiting up on Sunday, this isn’t something worth chasing.
Frank Gore (Sit), La’Mical Perine (Sit)
News broke on Tuesday night that Le’Veon Bell was cut, meaning Frank Gore is the lead dog in this backfield for the foreseeable future. He’s averaging 3.2 YPC behind the Jets’ 19th ranked offensive line per Football Outsiders, which is not great. Miami has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs this season, but unless you’re absolutely desperate for a flex play I would avoid this backfield like the plague.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jamison Crowder (Start, WR2), Braxton Berrios (Sit), Jeff Smith (Sit, Flex), Chris Herndon (Sit)
Did you know that Jamison Crowder has 33 targets in three games? He has a 66.7% catch rate and 335 yards, along with two touchdowns which gives him an average of 22.5 PPR points per game. He’s shown clear chemistry with Sam Darnold, but Crowder still put up 25.6 PPR points even with Joe Flacco under center last week. He has been absolutely killing it, and at this point, he’s at least a WR3 every week with upside.
Also flying under the radar is Jeff Smith, who has 20 targets in two games. His 50% catch rate leaves a lot to be desired, but in PPR leagues it’s all about volume, baby. He’s a sneaky flex play this week or a cheap DFS filler if you want to spend up somewhere else.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Start, QB1)
It’s Week 6 and people are already calling for Tua Tagovailoa to take over as the starting QB for the Miami Dolphins. To which I say: Why? Ryan Fitzpatrick is currently QB7 in fantasy football, and the 2-3 Dolphins have been competitive in every game this season. If you watched any of Miami’s beatdown of San Francisco last week you saw how much fun that offense has with Fitzpatrick leading the charge, and he dropped a couple of dimes into his receivers while under pressure.
Ryan Fitzpatrick got back to his YOLO-ball ways in Week 5 and it was a fun time pic.twitter.com/IfgOCpkPpO
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 12, 2020
He’s got the weapons, and against a Jets team who has the 6th fewest sacks in the league, he should have plenty of time to sit back and sling it in this game. He’s a QB1 this week
Myles Gaskin (Start, Flex), Matt Breida (Sit), Jordan Howard (Sit)
Myles Gaskin is flex-worthy every week simply because he’s averaging five targets per game. His 3.9 YPC isn’t terrible, but Miami’s 5th worst run-blocking offensive line is troublesome. The Jets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to RBs this season, and while Gaskin likely won’t light up the world and score 20-25 points he should still be good for a solid floor of 10-15, and even more if he can find the end zone.
Unfortunately, we haven’t seen more of Matt Breida or Jordan Howard this season, because their high draft slots have been incredibly difficult to overcome for a lot of fantasy managers like myself. We did see Breida earn 9 carries and a target last week, but Howard didn’t even play a snap. Until either of them string together a couple of solid games in a row, they’re droppable in almost all formats.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Start, WR2), Preston Williams (Start, Flex), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE2),
The Jets were torched by DeAndre Hopkins last week for 131 yards and a touchdown through the air. While DeVante Parker isn’t quite on the same level as Hopkins, he’s fully capable of putting up a WR1 week against the Jets defense. The Jets held him to six catches on eight targets in two games last season, so I’ve got him as a WR2 to be conservative.
Meanwhile, Preston Williams finally looked healthy and involved last week, as he led wideouts in targets and receptions. His 20.6 fantasy points were easily a season-high, but it’s still yet to be seen if this is just an outlier performance or the beginning of something great. I’ve conservatively got him has a flex play this week, but the opportunity is there for something greater. He might be worth a roll of the dice.
Mike Gesicki has been up and down this season, but he was targeted six times last week and caught five of them for 91 yards. 70 of those yards came from one catch, however, and four catches for 21 yards isn’t what you want to see out of a guy who spends the majority of his time running routes out of the slot. He’s still an athletic monster, and I do believe in him going forward, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that has performed below average against tight ends this season. He’s not a sure-fire start at TE, but he has some upside.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)