Sit/Start 2023 Week 15: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 17th, 2023, 4:25 PM ET

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Betting Odds: BUF -2.5, O/U 49.5 via OddsShark

Expected Weather: 48 F, Mostly Cloudy

Network: FOX

Writer: Christian Otteman (@COttemanPL on Twitter/X)

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)

Okayyy, here we go! After getting off to a slow start, Dak Prescott has put together a phenomenal season and currently sits as the favorite to win his first NFL MVP award. Dak has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in six of his last eight starts and has the potential to do so again in what will be the first week of the fantasy playoffs for many. The Bills defense is middling against QBs from a fantasy perspective, allowing the 14th-fewest fantasy points to the position, but things could get easier for Dak if Micah Hyde or A.J. Epenesa are forced to sit out this contest. Even if he does play, the Cowboys are rolling as one of the NFL’s hottest teams, and Dak is a big reason for their success. Roll him out as a locked-in QB1.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard (Start, RB2), Rico Dowdle (Sit, FLEX)

Week 14 was a case of close but no cigar for Tony Pollard, who was forced to watch from the sidelines as seemingly every Dallas Cowboy but him found the end zone during a rout of the Philadelphia Eagles. Touchdowns have been harder to come by this year for Pollard, but the opportunities have not–he has at least 15 touches in every game since Week 9, and at least 19 touches in each of his past three. The Bills rank 19th against the run and allow the 4th-most receiving yards per game to backs, meaning Pollard slides in as a high-end RB2 with a chance to push RB1 numbers if he can find the end zone in a game with the highest total on the slate. The other half of Dallas’ running tandem, Rico Dowdle saw increased work early last week and punched in a one-yard TD after his backfield mate was tackled just short of the goal line. However, he has received more than two targets just once this season back in Week 3, meaning his upside is capped, especially in PPR leagues. You could do worse as a desperation FLEX, but you likely need a touchdown to get a productive outing from Dowdle.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR1) Brandin Cooks (Start, WR3), Michael Gallup (Sit),  Jake Ferguson (Start, TE1)

CeeDee Lamb has been an absolute monster during the second half of the season, having garnered 9+ targets in every week since the bye and scoring in five straight contests. Lamb will likely see plenty of coverage from Rasul Douglas but is about as matchup-proof a player as it gets. Fire him up as a no-doubt WR1 with the upside to be the top WR on the week.

Looking at the other Cowboys wideouts, Brandin Cooks didn’t have his most productive game in Week 14 but was still on the field for 77% of snaps compared to Michael Gallup‘s 49%. While Gallup scored last week, Cooks is still the preferred option in this offense and should carry the safer floor and higher ceiling as a WR3 in this likely shootout.

Next up we have one of the best surprises of the season in Jake Ferguson, who saw eight targets for the second straight week against the Eagles. His target share and red zone usage keep him firmly entrenched in the back half of the TE1 ranks with a nice matchup against Terrel Bernard.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Start, QB1)

It’s no secret that Josh Allen has had his fair share of turnover woes this season, leading the league in interceptions through 14 weeks of play. When you match that up against a Cowboys defense that averages an interception per game while also allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game, this might not be the best matchup on paper, but Allen is still the overall QB1 on the season thanks to his legs. As long as Allen is running, he’s scoring you fantasy points, and there’s no reason that should change in this contest. Allen is a top-tier QB1.

Running Backs

James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit), Ty Johnson (Sit)

In a classic case of unstoppable force meets immovable object, James Cook takes his four-game 100-yards-from-scrimmage streak into a battle against the Cowboys’ front seven allowing the fourth-fewest points to RBs this season. Dallas does a good job bottling up opposing backs both on the ground and through the air, but Cook has enjoyed a larger role in the passing game as of late, getting a handful of plays drawn up where he is the first look. The tough matchup means there’s a greater risk to bust here, but Cook has a large enough role to maintain RB2 numbers in Week 15. On the other hand, both Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson can be left on benches (or waivers) without a second thought.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs (Start, WR2), Gabe Davis (Sit), Khalil Shakir (Sit, FLEX), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE2), Dawson Knox (Start, TE2)

It’s been a tough month for Stefon Diggs, who hasn’t crossed 100 yards since Week 6 and has also scored fewer than 7 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Things don’t figure to get any easier in a matchup against the Cowboys, where Diggs will see coverage from DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore depending on which side of the field he lines up. However, when he lines up in the slot (about 36% of the time according to PFF), he gets an excellent matchup against Jourdan Lewis. I understand if you’re frustrated with Diggs’ production as of late, but you certainly aren’t benching him in the playoffs. His recent struggles and slightly diminished snap share (79% in Week 14) push him down into the WR2 ranks, but he can turn things back around at any time.

Speaking of the WRs you should bench in the playoffs, let’s take a moment to talk about Gabe Davis. The poster child for the boom-or-bust moniker, Davis has three goose eggs in his last five games and now draws a tough matchup against the Cowboys CBs. Given that he rarely works out of the slot, he should see a lot of Bland and Gilmore, meaning the bust potential is much higher than the boom here. Meanwhile, the Bills’ primary slot receiver, Khalil Shakir, could be a sneaky FLEX play in deeper leagues given that he operates out of the slot 78% of the time, giving him an easier matchup against Jourdan Lewis. In 12-man leagues where you’re starting 3 WRs at max, though, you probably have better options to consider.

Finally, we have our pair of Bills TEs with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox saw decent involvement in his first game back from injury, catching all three passes thrown his way. He was out-snapped and out-targeted (78%-47% and 8-3, respectively) by Kincaid in Week 14, but he may be forced into more opportunities if Kincaid’s shoulder injury he suffered at the end of the game against the Chiefs continues to linger. If he suits up, both players should function as dart throw starters, with Kincaid being a high-end TE2 and Knox a low-end option.