Sit/Start 2023 Week 15: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 16th, 1:00 pm EST

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Betting Odds: GB -3.5  O/U 41.5 Total via PFF.com

Network: CBS

Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield (Sit)

Man, I love me some Baker Mayfield, The Guy…especially since he converted to “my best ability is availability, not marketability” as a mantra. However, my love for Baker Mayfield, Starting Fantasy Quarterback Option, is not so strong. During the past month, Baker has only cleared 15 fantasy points once (per Sleeper, last week against the Atlanta Falcons). Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers, using a combination of duct tape and the indomitable human spirit, have a solid passing defense consisting of almost entirely backups. This squad has only allowed one 300-yard passing game all year (against the Lions, Week 12) and is averaging 214 allowed per game for the year and only 14 touchdowns (tied for second in the league). This is a bad matchup for Mayfield, leave him comfortably in your clipboard position again this week.

Running Backs

Rachaad White (Start, RB1), Chase Edmonds (Sit)

Rachaad White is cruising right now: over the past eight games, he has put up over 100 all-purpose yards in five of them, missed by one yard once, two yards another once, and had one less than spectacular outing against San Francisco (where he still rung up 58 and a touchdown). There are six touchdowns in that period as well, since we’re taking notes. On the opposite side of the line, the Green Bay Packers run defense has given up an average of 161.75 rushing yards over the past month with four touchdowns in tow (if you want to look back an extra week at the Steelers’ game, these averages get gaudier). Green Bay has been winning some games, but they haven’t been stopping runners. White is my start-of-the-week, this is a spectacular matchup, and the Buccaneers will need to continue to lean on him early and often to get some solid swings on a Packer team that’s still dazed from their overall ineptitude of last Monday. We had a Chase Edmonds sighting last week when he contributed 58 yards on 8-for-40 running and 2-18 receiving in a game Tampa needed extra help to put away, but that was legitimately the only time Edmonds has contributed anything all year, so feel safe in leaving him sitting over to the side, just out of your eyeline.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, Flex), Trey Parker (Sit), Cade Otton (Start, TE2)

As of this juncture in the season, I find it nice to have some solid ground to stand on in any facet of this sport hobby, and that’s why I’m comforted by the knowledge that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers regularly field two wide receivers, and a host of guys that will rotate in and out of the Kansas City Chiefs roster over the next five years. Eh, maybe Trey Palmer comes a little further along if they keep tossing at him 4-6 times a game, but with a season mark of 28 catches on 49 targets, I’m not holding my breath.  Let’s ignore last week for a minute: Mike Evans is a must-start, has 10 touchdowns on the year, and is averaging 78.46 yards receiving per game (if you take out last week’s ONE RECEPTION FOR EIGHT YARDS, it jumps to 84.33 ypg). He will see some success against Green Bay.

I also like Chris Godwin here, though the Tampa 2 here have devolved from the 1a and 1b they traditionally stood together as, and Godwin trails Evans significantly in total yardage (659 to 1020), and touchdowns (1 to 10), while only trailing him by thirteen targets. Also, his wife is talking to the media about the coach, which is always a great sign. Godwin had a crazy bounce back in targets last week (11) despite the off-field nonsense, but that resulted in five catches for 53 yards. Certainly critical for the Buccaneers’ win, but not so spectacular for must-win fantasy purposes. With Godwin playing at less than 100 percent most of the year, he’s very much in “in case of emergency, break glass” realm: temper expectations if you need to use him, as it’s not a great matchup against the Packers. I think I’ve made it clear here before that Cade Otton does not excite me much, but my opinion here doesn’t mean he’s not a viable tight-end option if you’re hurting for a guy. Over the past six weeks, Otton has been seeing a little over five targets per game – his yardage average is 36.16, and there’s been a total of 3 touchdowns in there (2 of them against the Texans) – he’s a feast-or-famine play over that time, but if our floor for a TE2 is five points – and it is – he’s good enough to use with that qualifier, but you’re going to do a lot of praying that day.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

Jordan Love (Sit)

Look, I don’t know, every time people all over the world join hands and board the Love Train, it seems to careen off the rails with whatever that was on Monday Night Football.  Now granted, that wasn’t all on Love unless he was given the command to call a bakers’ dozen of jet sweeps and double/triple reverses, but he certainly didn’t hit on all his marks, with 25 for 39 passing, a fumble that came off a disjointed and ill-advised run, and a pick that was all on him. It’s a learning year, we should all learn to settle down a little. This week has all the potential for a rebound, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31st in the league in passing yards allowed at 282.84 a game (256.75 over the past four, but one of those was the Panthers whose paltry 149 is par for their season). My big hedge here: it’s not particularly clear who Love will be throwing in the general vicinity of (see below for more confusion), but as of writing this, three of his top four options are not looking healthy, and that’s before we consider that Luke Musgrave is still out with a lacerated spleen and…well, read below. So it’s an above-average matchup for Love IF he has anybody to throw to. Monitor those injury reports, he’s a mid-level QB2 if he gets at least one of his top-two guys back, but if it’s just Romeo Doubs, Malik Heath, and Samori Toure, it’s a firm ‘no thanks’.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (Start, RB2), AJ Dillon (Start, Flex), Patrick Taylor/Kenyan Drake (Sit)

Let’s start with AJ Dillon. I no longer aggressively dissuade fantasy owners from keeping him around and think he’s developed into a better, more effective component on this offense. I just don’t think Matt LaFleur has any capacity to just run one guy. This sort of had a logic to it when Dillon and Aaron Jones were both regularly sharing the backfield, but now he’s throwing Patrick Taylor in for series, and they might use….<checks notes>…uh, Kenyan Drake? Too much thinking here; even in a full PPR, Dillon just doesn’t put in RB2 numbers, let alone RB1, but is pretty consistent in bringing in the 9-12 point range regardless of what’s around him – that’s his home now, and he owns it. I wouldn’t touch either Taylor or Drake, neither had full-time active gigs as recently as a month ago for reasons, and Drake may never be activated anyhow. I will repeat what I’ve said for some weeks now: If Aaron Jones is active, assume he’s healthy; he’s currently questionable on the report, and has been ‘limited participanting’ for a couple of weeks now. It would be a great week for Love and Co. to get him back up and running, and with the other injuries, he should vault up in usage and opportunity, but he has to dress for the game first.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Healthy: Romeo Doubs (Start, WR2), Malik Heath (Sit), Samori Toure (Sit), Tucker Kraft (Start, TE2)

Not So Much: Christian Watson (Hamstring), Jayden Reed (Concussion), Dontayvion Wicks (High Ankle Sprain), Luke Musgrave (LACERATED SPLEEN!) 

I’m not sure there’s a better way to approach this than to just list it out: If somehow Christian Watson plays this week, assume Green Bay finds him at least 90 percent recovered, and run him at a WR2; the same for Jayden Reed, IF Watson is out, but he can go after he clears concussion protocol which we can only assume he’s in since there’s been zero news since he left Monday’s game – but if Watson plays, he’s a WR3. I’m going with the assumption that both are out, which makes Romeo Doubs a WR2 based on volume and familiarity alone – drop him to a WR3 with one active, or a flex if both go. I wouldn’t look at Dontayvion Wicks regardless – high ankle sprains are nasty for receivers. Neither Samori Toure (2 for 4 for 22 yards) nor Malik Heath (1 for 2 and a touchdown) are worth serious consideration even with increased volume. Heath is a hard worker, but incredibly raw, and Toure has been a healthy scratch half of the season. Luke Musgrave should remain out as he continues to rehab his spleen. How does one lacerate a spleen anyway? But I LOVE Tucker Kraft and his increased effectiveness – last week Kraft went 4/4 for 64 yards, and with so many regular targets likely out this week, I like him seeing increased usage, maybe even on triple reverses or Statue of Liberty plays or whatever other dumb ideas Matt LaFleur flirts with this week like we’re playing in the backyard here.