Sit/Start 2023 Week 15: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 17th, 4:05 PM EST

Location: State Farm Stadium, Phoenix, AZ

Betting Odds: SF -13.5, O/U 47.5 via OddsShark

Network: CBS

Writer: Nick Beaudoin 

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy (Start, QB1)

Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has overcome one of the most unlikely career arc’s of all time, firmly entrenching the name Brock Purdy as a QB1 on a weekly basis. He is the QB5 overall on the season and has been a QB1 in five of the last six games. The Cardinals have been an “everything funnel” all season, coming in 26th in PPG to QBs, and with a league-high team-implied total of 31, Purdy remains a solid QB1 once again.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (Start, the RB1), Elijah Mitchell (Sit, FLEX), Jordan Mason (Sit, FLEX)

We’ve got the best running back in the league, as heavy favorites, against a Cardinals defense ranked 31st in PPG to opposing RBs. To put more fuel on the fire, SF comes in as PFF’s third most favorable matchup in regards to OL/DL. The only concern would be the potential of the 49ers getting a big lead, and ceding touches to whoever is the backup (see below), which would make a lot of sense as the 49ers prepare for a playoff push. Regardless, congratulations to those of you who drafted Christian McCaffrey, who could very well be the RB1 overall this week.

Elijah Mitchell has been the main backup when healthy, averaging 5.3 touches/game, but all we know at this moment is that he “has a chance to play Sunday,” according to Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. Stepping up in Mitchell’s absence last week was Jordan Mason, who received five touches for 26 all-purpose yards with one (vultured) touchdown. Whoever serves as the backup has averaged 5-6 touches/game, but may receive a few extra touches if this game script goes as Vegas predicts. The floor is very low with either of them, but a touchdown could easily boost them into FLEX territory.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Brandon Aiyuk (Start, WR1), Deebo Samuel (Start, WR1), Jauan Jennings (Sit), George Kittle (Start, TE1)

Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel form arguably the top and most diverse receiving duo in the NFL, with both of them finishing in the top 11 in PPG for WRs. The Cardinals come in 21st in PPG to WRs, and both of them rank excellent across the board against any and every individual member of the Cardinals secondary. Divisional games always have the potential to let us down, but this is looking like an absolute smash spot for both of the 49ers WRs.

Jauan Jennings has played 36% of snaps over the past five games and has had two (or fewer) PPR points in five of his last six. He can remain on waivers this week.

George Kittle is the TE2 on the season and has been a TE1 in four of the last six games. Although the Cardinals mark their best statistical spot coming in 10th in PPG against TEs, Kittle’s individual matchup against LB Josh Woods is PFF’s number one mismatch at the TE position on the week. With all of the playmakers on this offense, Kittle has the potential to disappear any given week, however, his boom games have week-winning upside, making him a ride-or-die TE1 every week.

In conclusion, with literally every matchup heavily favoring SF’s skill positions, it is difficult to predict an exact path to success. Let’s just say, start your 49ers.

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (Start, Low-QB2)

Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals come off a bye week to face a San Francisco team that is (in my opinion) the most complete team in the league. PFF has Arizona’s OL/DL as the worst possible matchup (in both passing and rushing) against the 49ers, who come in third in PPG to QBs and have only improved since the addition of Chase Young at the trade deadline. This is going to force Murray to scramble and run more, which gives him one of the lowest floors and highest ceilings of any QB on the slate. Arizona’s wideouts do not project well at all against the SF secondary, and with Pittsburgh setting a blueprint to keep Murray contained, I’m predicting a difficult afternoon. Kyler always has QB1 upside, but his ceiling feels lower than usual with a team-implied total of 17. Murray is a high-QB2 this week.

Running Backs

James Conner (Start, FLEX), Michael Carter (Sit), Emari Demercado (Sit)

James Conner is coming off an RB1 performance against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but is going to struggle to find running room against the 49ers who come in second in PPG to opposing RBs, and as we mentioned above, Conner’s offensive line is going to do him no favors whatsoever. Conner could always score a goal-line touchdown, but in order to return RB2 numbers, he will likely need to bring back a receiving skill set we have not seen at all this season. The upside for Conner is that after seeing 25 touches two weeks ago, he does not have competition in this backfield, but his floor and ceiling are low as heavy underdogs with a low team-implied total.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Marquise Brown (Start, WR3), Rondale Moore (Sit), Greg Dortch (Sit), Michael Wilson (Sit), Trey McBride (Start, High-TE2)

We had high hopes for Marquise Brown with the return of Kyler, however, that has not panned out as expected. After six receptions for 88 yards (12 targets) against the Rams, Hollywood got the Joey Porter Jr. treatment, bringing in zero of his three targets against the Steelers before being forced to leave early with a heel injury. Although the 49ers come in 23rd in PPG to opposing WRs, Brown projects very poorly in every individual matchup against the 49ers secondary. With that being said, he should return back to his normal volume, and potentially lead the team in targets (or come in second, at worst) as heavy underdogs. Brown possesses a low floor and high ceiling but should see enough volume to bully his way into WR3 value.

*Brown did not practice Wednesday due to his heel injury, but Head Coach Jonathon Gannon suggested he should resume practice later in the week.

Rondale Moore had a few weeks of inspiring play but has reverted to his normal self the past two games, with only 41 combined yards in two weeks. Count me out.

Greg Dortch has returned in his yearly fill-in target-hog role, seeing 20 targets over the past three games, but I don’t care what anyone says. He is not good. Don’t start him.

Michael Wilson missed the past three games but has returned to practice in a limited capacity this week. In his last outing over a month ago, Wilson was on the field for a team-high 89% of snaps, and if healthy, will likely insert himself right back into the starting lineup. Wilson is someone I’m monitoring in Dynasty leagues, but am not interested in as a dart throw this week.

For whatever reason, the Cardinals kept Trey McBride off the field for a year and a half after taking him in the second round of last year’s draft. I do understand they had Zach Ertz, but it is very obvious that McBride belongs on the field, and on a team devoid of playmakers, there is no excuse not to find ways to get him on the field. Since Week 8, McBride is the TE4, averaging 16.2 (PPR) PPG. He is averaging 8.8 targets/game over the past six weeks and has become arguably the top receiving option on this team. Unfortunately, this week he takes on LB Fred Warner, PFF’s number one overall LB, of 80 qualified players. You could certainly do worse than McBride, but he is going to be in for a big challenge with the 49ers, who come in second in PPG to TEs. McBride is a fringe TE1/TE2 this week.

Thank you for being here, and best of luck to your teams this week!

– Nick Beaudoin