Sit/Start 2023 Week 15: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 17th, 2023, 1:05 PM ET

Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Betting Odds: NO -6 (started at NO -4.5), O/U 36.5 via OddsShark

Network: FOX

Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter/X)

New York Giants

Quarterbacks

Tommy DeVito (Sit)

Sorry to say it, but Tommy Cutlets should be kept on the bench this week. The Saints carry a strong passing defense into this contest, with a top 10 defensive EPA against the pass and a top 10 defensive EPA per dropback. They also grade out well against QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position, ranking 10th-best in points allowed to the position. The defense comes into this one looking fairly healthy, so there should be a significant talent disadvantage between the Giants’ pass-catching group and the Saints’ secondary.

If you’re looking for hope, then one statistic of note is that Tommy DeVito rushed for 71 yards last week on 10 attempts, thanks to a steady diet of designed QB runs. The Packers were gashed over and over again by the same QB run plays, which opened up the offense dramatically. The Saints have also shown a susceptibility to the running QB, allowing the third-highest rush yards to opposing QBs–just a spot behind the Packers. If DeVito can find some success on the ground, he’ll push for QB2 value. However, his game log indicates DeVito hasn’t really proven himself as either a runner or a passer that can be counted on in negative matchups.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (Start, fringe RB2)

Saquon Barkley bounced back after a very quiet performance against New England by rushing for 86 yards and 2 TDs. He got back into the passing game as well, reeling in 3 catches on 4 targets, though he didn’t add much in terms of receiving yardage. It’s comforting to see that Barkley has not dropped off in usage, even as his effectiveness on the ground has been mitigated in the last couple of weeks (3.8 and 4.3 YPC across the last two games).

The Saints also grade out well in terms of points allowed to the RB position, ranking 10th-best in the metric. Other metrics across the board find this team to be a solid, though unspectacular rushing defense, so there shouldn’t be much of an obvious performance bump this week. Given their strength on the ground, the Saints may choose to let DeVito try to beat them through the air whenever possible, so Barkley can be expected to run into more loaded boxes and heavier personnel up front, which should limit his rushing production. Accordingly, I wouldn’t rely on him hitting the century mark in yardage (he’s only hit it once this season anyway), nor would I rely on him getting back into the end zone, since he has 7 total touchdowns this season (3 rushing, 4 receiving). The volume is good enough that you’re not sitting him, so hopefully he can turn some of those runs into TDs to return value.

Extra-fun stat: The Saints have one of the highest explosive rush rates allowed (runs of 10+ yards) in the league.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wan’Dale Robinson (Start, Flex), Everyone Else (Sit)

Wan’Dale Robinson finally had his break-out game last Monday, turning 7 targets into 6 receptions and 79 yards, along with 2 carries for 36 yards. He hit new highs in almost every category: receptions, targets, receiving yardage, and rushing yardage. Unfortunately, his usage is all over the map, as he’s now hit WR2 value in 2 weeks this season, though he followed his prior WR2 performance, the Sunday evening loss to Buffalo, with a 1-catch dud. It’s not fair to say that Wan’Dale will automatically start hitting high value, since the Giants’ passing game has spotty usage, though his workload beyond last week suggests that he is good for low-end flex value.

Even as the slot receiver, he doesn’t really have a significantly easier matchup than his two pals on the outside, Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton, who get two of PFFs’ top 10 CBs. Robinson will likely match up with Demario Davis on some plays, as one of the league’s premier off-ball linebackers, but he’ll also get an aging Tyrann Mathieu and an unproven Jordan Howden, the Saints’ two main safeties.

It is highly recommended that fantasy managers avoid starting any NYG receiver. However, if you’re looking for a desperation upside play, roll with Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt has shown a connection with Tommy DeVito in weeks past, going for 5 receptions and 109 receiving yards just a few weeks ago against New England. The Saints are middle-of-pack in terms of explosive pass rate allowed (passes of 20+ yards), and Hyatt is the Giants’ big-play threat, so there’s a possibility Hyatt breaks off a big play or two against this defense.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback

Derek Carr (Sit)

Derek Carr has been having some trouble connecting with his teammates on an emotional level and on a football level lately. Carr has been an accurate passer this season, with an expected completion percentage in the top 10 among qualified QBs, though it hasn’t come with an impressive EPA (23rd) or a whole lot of explosive passing plays (17th)–which is the fantasy gold we’re looking for. Looking at the standard stats, Carr was just fine against the Panthers, throwing for 2 TDs (though still finished under QB2 value), but overall, he hasn’t done much of anything as of late in the fantasy column. On workload alone, Carr seems like someone you can safely leave on the bench.

The matchup doesn’t grade out well enough that Carr shouldn’t be an upside stab. The Giants aren’t too far behind the Panthers in terms of EPA per pass play allowed (14th and 11th, respectively), and they do a decent job of limiting explosive pass plays (14th-best). They also get after opposing QBs at a slightly above-average rate (14th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate) and slide into the top 10 in terms of points allowed to opposing QBs, so Carr isn’t going to have all day to pick them apart, nor have many QBs done so this season. The bottom line with Carr: minimal upside + fantasy unfriendly workload = bench.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1)

It was a grim outing for Alvin Kamara in the receiving game last week. He went for -11 yards on 3 receptions, by far a season-low, though he hit double-digit carries for the third straight week. Poor receiving performance notwithstanding, Kamara has earned the trust necessary to slot him right back into the lineup after a relative stinker. It certainly helps that the Giants are one of the friendliest fantasy matchups for opposing running backs, appearing just outside the top 5 in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. They have been gashed by explosive rush plays (10+ yards), as they rank second-to-last among all defenses in explosive rushing plays allowed. Fire him up.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Chris Olave (Start, WR2), Rashid Shaheed, if healthy (Start, Flex), Taysom Hill, if healthy (Start, TE1), Everyone Else (Sit, even if Shaheed and Hill are injured)

Chris Olave, as usual, provides a strong workload and rapport with Derek Carr, though it just feels like he could be even better. If the Saints decided to play Jameis Winston, Olave would seemingly catapult into the fantasy WR1 conversation every week, though he seems to be doing just fine even with Carr under center. In the past 4 weeks, he’s hit the century mark in receiving yardage twice and came six yards short of it in another game. Last week, he went missing for much of the game, recording only 4 receptions for 28 yards. Hopefully, he’ll be back near his usual yardage output and receiving workload, which puts him a couple of points shy of WR1 status without a TD.

Rashid Shaheed, if he plays, should add a bit of an explosive play element that’s been missing from the team in recent weeks. He has one of the highest average depths of target among all NFL wideouts, indicating that the Saints see him primarily as a deep threat, and while the Giants don’t give up the explosive plays at a particularly high rate, they are susceptible to it (14th). He’s been dealing with various injuries over the last month and was kept out of last week’s win over the Panthers thanks to a quad injury, which might sap his big speed, but if he’s healthy enough to play the whole game here, Shaheed should get enough looks to try to make something big happen.

Taysom Hill, if he plays, gets involved in the game in so many different ways that he is going to find TE1 value. It doesn’t matter if he’s not good at anything in particular (he isn’t!) but he’s barely passable enough at enough things to rack up the fantasy points.

Extra fun stat: The Giants allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.