Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 28, 2024, 8:20 ET
Location: Lambeau Stadium, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Network: NBC/Peacock
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Steaming Option, QB2
Tua is coming off his best game of the season against the Patriots: over 300 passing yards and a 4/0 touchdown-INT ratio. At 5-6, this offense is starting to find its rhythm at just the right time. Tua heads to Lambeau to face a stingy Packers defense that ranks 10th in EPA/Pass and has the 8th-highest interception rate. This may be because opposing teams have been trying to beat them deep – they’ve faced the 11th-highest average depth of target against (7.95 aDOT). But Tua and the Dolphins run a very different offense, Tua’s average intended air yards are the lowest rate in the league at only 5.5 aIAY. There’s no reason to doubt this offense will continue doing what’s been working for them, but keep an eye on the weather for this one – we’ve seen how poorly this Miami team plays when they travel North in the Winter. While it’s been promising he’s put up back-to-back finishes as a top-10 QB, Tua should be considered a high-end pivot to consider.
Running Back
Devon Achane: Start, RB1
Raheem Mostert: Sit
Jaylen Wright: Sit
Achane is a must-start with Tua back at the helm. His midseason woes are behind him as he’s logged 6 TDs in the last five games and seen a spike in his receiving work when Tua made his return. The Packers’ defense does rank as the 4th most difficult matchup in YAC EPA/Attempt, but the most elusive runners they have faced have been Saquon Barkley (who scored 33 points against them in Week 1) and Jahmir Gibbs (who scored 15 points against them Week 9). They were able to bottle up Christian McCaffrey last week as well, but much of that can be attributed to the Niners starting a backup QB who didn’t pose as a passing threat (CMC did also break off a 31-yard reception). Achane is a must-start with his volume and speed, but his volume share leaves small scraps for Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Start, WR2
Jaylen Waddle: FLEX Option, WR3
Odell Beckham Jr.: Sit
It may be time to start parting Tyreek Hill’s reputation from his current state. He’s still very fast, and he’s been averaging over 6 targets a game since Tua’s return in Week 8, but he’s averaging 13 points per game and is the WR17 since that point. Tua’s return has surely elevated his floor from the horrendous 2.3 points back in Week 7, but he still couldn’t break 20 fantasy points even after scoring a TD in each of Weeks 10 and 11. With Achane and Jonnu Smith’s involvement, Tyreek is clinging to WR2-level production but could still have some big-play potential in him. It’s also a proceed-with-caution situation for Jaylen Waddle owners. He’s coming off his biggest week of the season but had logged 4 or fewer receptions for no more than 57 yards from Weeks 2-11. It was a frustrating stretch, but one big bounceback week isn’t enough to rely upon – consider him a risky boom/bust FLEX option.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith: Start, TE1
Jonnu is the TE2 since Tua’s return in Week 8, as he’s just put up two consecutive weeks of over 20+ fantasy points. If you scooped him up off waivers, you’ll likely have a decision to make for your starter this week, but you should strongly consider riding the wave of Jonnu’s success. He only had one game of fewer than 6 targets over the past 6 weeks and found the end zone three times in the past two games. He leads the team in red zone targets with 35 over the past five games with Tua under center. Given most of his work comes in the red zone, he’s a slightly riskier TE1 but is still one of the best options at the position.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Steaming Option, QB2
Love may be considered a viable starter in two-QB formats, but he’s a low-end option in standard one-QB leagues. He’s eclipsed 275 passing yards only once this season, back in Week 4, and Green Bay runs the ball at the 5th highest rate (2nd over the last three games). His 61.8% completion rate is 33rd out of the 40 QBs with 90+ pass attempts on the season, and he’s tied for the 2nd most interceptions (11) despite being 22nd in pass attempts. Part of this may be due to the injuries he’s been dealing with that affect his mobility, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup against Miami, whose pressures have allowed the 6th lowest scramble rate in the league and the 5th fewest passing yards. With the Packers showing to be a run-first team, Love’s inefficiency, and Miami being a difficult matchup, starting Jordan Love should generally be avoided if possible.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs: Start, RB1
Emanuel Wilson: Sit
Respect needs to be put on Josh Jacobs‘ name. The TD drought from the first 7 Weeks is behind him as he’s scored 6 times in his last four games, and he has the 3rd most rushing yards in the league behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Miami’s defense poses as the 10th most difficult in EPA/Rush allowed, but Jacobs still nearly hit 100 yards against Detroit who ranks 9th in that same metric. Jacobs has finished as the RB13 or better in 5 of his last seven games, with top-5 finishes in three of his last four games. He’s a must-start, but his volume makes him the only viable fantasy RB in this backfield.
Wide Receiver
Jayden Reed: FLEX Option, WR3
Romeo Doubs: Sit
Christian Watson: Sit
Dontayvion Wicks: Sit
After a hot start to the season, the past two games for Jayden Reed have been a story of being involved early in the game and fading to the background for the remainder of the contest. The eye test suggests he’s the most talented WR in the group, but the fact of the matter remains that there are many mouths to feed, and you’d be rolling the dice to expect any to be the primary target in any given week. Reed’s explosiveness and the potential for a bounceback week land him as a risky FLEX play with a higher upside should Romeo Doubs not suit up. Doubs is currently in concussion protocol with uncertainty to play, and even if he clears the protocol, it would be hard to expect him to see a high workload. Christian Watson might enter the conversation, but his usage has been very boom/bust as the deep threat, so only consider him for your lineup if you are desperate for a dart throw.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft: Streaming Option, TE2
The dice roll of receivers applies to Tucker Kraft as well, but in a slightly different fashion. He hasn’t seen many targets, but it’s usually in the red zone when he does. Last week, both his targets came at the 11-yard line or closer, and he took 1 for the score and was tackled on the 2-yard line on the other. I believe he would likely be the recipient of a high percentage of the vacated targets in the event Doubs does not play, but that would still land him as a high-end TE2 option. If Doubs suits up, he’s a very TD-dependent asset given the lack of consistent volume.