Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 1st, 1:00 ET
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
Network: FOX
Writer: Michael James
Hey gang, Michael James here filling in this week. Today, we’re looking at the Houston Texans traveling to the Jacksonville Jaguars in this AFC South matchup. The Texans are -225 favorites, and the over/under is 43.5, so let’s see who’s set up for a day as we prepare for the fantasy playoffs!
Houston Texans
Quarterback
CJ Stroud: Start, QB1
Stroud’s best game this season came against the Jaguars earlier this year, and he’ll be better than his average this season against them one more time. Of course, before last week, he turned in five straight sit-worthy performances, but you can only improve from there, right? Well, he has averaged almost 25 fantasy points per game against Jacksonville for his career. He tends to play better against opponents he’s more familiar with (IE- from the AFC South), averaging over 18 points per divisional game, up from his overall average of 14.5 fantasy points per game this season. Jacksonville is dead last in the league for net offensive yards per play, which stems from having the league’s worst passing defense this season. In addition, they are in the bottom three for points allowed and QB pressure rating in the NFL. So, while there is always a risk that they just hand the ball off to Mixon 50 times, I think being rivals will lead to a closer game, which will call on the passing attack more. Stroud falls in the back-end QB1 range for us this week in one of his last chances to prove himself in his sophomore season.
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Start, RB1
The man, the Mixon, the legend himself. Joe comes in as RB #7 overall in PPR this season despite missing three games. He is averaging 22 fantasy points per game since coming back from injury, and that’s including his second-worst performance of the year last week against the Titans, who held him to 1.5 yards per carry. The Jaguars have allowed over 150 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Mixon is an easy start for me here.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins: Start, WR1
Tank Dell: Start, WR2
Collins’ first game back saw him play half of his regular snap count and, as a result, scored half of his average in fantasy. Last week, he returned to his full complement of snap count average and delivered a 20-point game. Earlier this season, he went off against the Jaguars for 33 points, so Nico is an easy start without hesitation. Dell blew up Jacksonville in both games last year but did not play against them earlier this season, as that was the one game he was absent for this year. Since getting promoted due to injury to the depth chart starting with week 8, he has turned in a steady performance of a WR3 floor, WR2 ceiling-rated games. Given how I feel about the Jaguars passing defense and their second-highest YAC allowed in the league, I am high on both Texan WRs this game.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz: Sit
After his first few games as a Texan, Schultz started to hit his stride, turning in a stretch of really solid fantasy performances last year up until he got injured and missed some games toward the end of the year. Since coming back from that injury, he has only put up double-digit fantasy points once, as he has failed to score a touchdown in the past sixteen games dating back to last year. I recognize his floor is decent for a TE position in fantasy, and that holds value as a streamer candidate, however, every team is active this week, and the rookie TE from Ohio State caught a touchdown and out-targeted Schultz despite playing half of the snaps comparatively. Given that there are no teams on the bye this week, I’m looking for greener grass elsewhere at TE if I can.
D/ST
Texans: Start
Houston is on a three-game hot streak as they are outperforming fantasy score predictions on defense lately. I think they will continue to submit a strong fantasy box score again this week. However, as they are already rostered in roughly 80% of fantasy leagues everywhere, their managers are most likely already aware of this.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Sit
Lawrence returned to practice this week, but head coach Doug Peterson refused to say whether he is in line to start or not, saying it will be a pain tolerance issue. Even if he is in a position to manage the pain, they might hold him out anyway because there is no reason to rush him back, as they aren’t competing for a wild card spot. So, for this week, I am looking elsewhere for a QB if I can. The Texans have seven interceptions and thirteen sacks over their last three games, with their overall QB pressure rating rising every week as they enter the top five for the season after last week. If Trevor cannot go, it will fall to Mac Jones. Before you ask, the answer is no.
Running Back
Travis Etienne: Sit
While the Texans are middle of the league in terms of overall rushing defense, the Jaguar backfield is a full-on disaster at the moment. The last six weeks have been musical chairs between Etienne and Tank Bigsby rotating spots on the injury report. In the last three games, Etienne has failed to get at least seven fantasy points. It is possible the bye week has treated the running backs well, but I will want to see it first before I trust them back in my lineup, especially if Jones gets another start at QB.
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas: Start, WR2
Parker Washington: Sit
Houston has a pretty good defense that sits in the top five for the league against the pass. The rookie phenom out of LSU has been a little lacking over the last three games but did enter the bye week on a better performance against the Lions. I have Thomas several ranks higher if Trevor is starting instead of Mac. In his first outing against the Texans, he lit them up for 22 fantasy points. At this point, however, you are probably starting Thomas either way. As for the rest of the receivers, well, I had to google the depth chart to even see who they were, with Gabe Davis joining Christian Kirk going out for the season on IR. Washington is a second-year receiver who has two fantasy points over his last two games combined, which, sadly, is not far off from what Davis was submitting before the injury. He would be an okay waiver candidate for the deepest of leagues at best.
Tight End
Evan Engram: Start, TE1
Given what I just wrote, the person who looks to benefit the most would be Engram. He has been delivering a high ceiling in fantasy every week since he came back in week 6. He has double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games, with only a single touchdown inflating those numbers. He is a high-volume target option with low yards both in target depth and yards after the catch. So, if you’re in a league that awards some form of points per reception, I love Engram this week.
D/ST
Jaguars: Sit
Before you say, ‘Well, of course,’ they did have back-to-back respectable performances against the Eagles and the Vikings of all teams. However, they got obliterated into the shadow realm by Detroit last week, and the previous time they played the Texans earlier this season, they managed only one fantasy point. However, their schedule looks very enticing after this week, so if they can get something done this week, I would then consider them in my streaming options for the playoffs in competitive leagues.
Happy Thanksgiving!!