Game Info
Kickoff: January 5, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
Network: FOX
Geoffrey Ulrich: (@thefantasygrind)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Spencer Rattler: Sit
Honestly, Rattler wasn’t terrible from a fantasy perspective last week. He ran for 46 yards and threw a TD, which he failed to do the week prior. His 15.3 fantasy points was his best mark of the season. It’s possible he even tops that this week against the Bucs porous secondary. Still, this is not a QB you want to trust, and with how uneven he plays, he’s also a huge injury risk, in my opinion.
Running Back
Kendre Miller: Sit
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Sit
Kendre Miller is in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks like he’ll be the starter after playing 43% of the snaps last week and going for 20 yards on five carries (and adding two receptions). This entire situation is avoidable.
Even if Miller starts, you can’t guarantee he’ll get a decent workload, so his sitting might be the best outcome. In that scenario, CEH would take the majority of the reps and potentially catch a bunch of passes.
Wide Receiver
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: FLEX Option, WR4
Dante Pettis: Sit
You don’t need to start any Saints WR this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling remains a big play option, however, as he is chasing down a contract incentive that pays him a couple hundred thousand dollars if he gets in the end zone once more (he needs 5 TDs to trigger the bonus and currently has 4).
Dante Pettis has looked like the WR2 in this offense but doesn’t get enough reps with all the random bodies the Saints throw out there. MVS is a deep league FLEX boom or bust option. Otherwise, avoid.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson: Start, TE1
Foster Moreau: Streaming Option, TE2
It’s crazy, but both of the Sainst TEs are startable this week.
Juwan Johnson led the team in targets last week and could have had an even bigger day if not for a penalty to ruin a big gain late. Foster Moreau has now gone for 30+ yards in four straight games and scored in two of his last three games.
Johnson is the more reliable option, but Moreau has been very active in the red zone. Either or both could return value this week for fantasy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Start, QB1
Mayfield is playing terrific football and should be motivated after he was snubbed for a Pro Bowl spot this week. Over his past four games, he’s averaged an insane 3.5 passing TDs and has posted 20.0 or more fantasy points now in four straight games as well.
I don’t see any reason for the Buccaneers to hold back in this game and put their stamp on the NFC South as they head into the postseason. Look for Mayfield to deliver another strong fantasy day.
Running Back
Rachaad White: FLEX Option, RB3
Bucky Irving: Start, RB1
White’s usage has dipped a little over the past few games as Irving has gotten healthier. The rookie is being prioritized in the early downs right now, and he’s averaged 18 carries over his last two starts, while White has averaged 4.5 carries over that same span.
The Saints have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, so there is room for both men to go off, but Irving is the clear workhorse at this point and should get all the work he can handle in a must-win game.
White’s more of a situational play and could get some mop-up duty if this turns into a blowout.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans: Start, WR1
Jalen McMillan: Start, WR2/3
Mike Evans should be in for a big week. It’s a good matchup against the Saints, who have faltered as a passing defense after trading Marshawn Lattimore. Evans only needs 85 yards to hit 1000 yards (and five more receptions to trigger some bonuses) and will probably get there just out of necessity with Cade Otton still banged up.
Jalen McMillan has also emerged as a variable play in his offense. He’s taken target shares of 16% and 17% in the last two weeks and has been on fire from a TD perspective, scoring six times in his last four games. I don’t see any reason to think that this trend would stop this week, given the Saints’ issues.
Maybe Tampa Bay just runs the ball 30 times, but given how well Baker Mayfield has played this season, it’s likely one or both of McMillan or Evans has big days.
Tight End
Cade Otton: Start (if he plays)
As of now, both of the Buccaneers’ TEs (Durham and Otton) are banged up. That could leave Devin Culp as the main pass catcher for Week 18.
I would love for Cade Otton to get on the field in this spot, but that really looks doubtful. Culp is probably a decent punt play if he starts, but I would hesitate to trust anyone other than Otton.
Outside of Mike Evans and McMillan, there is no pecking order in this offense.