Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, January 4, 2025, 8:00 ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Network: ABC/ESPN
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Start, QB1
Joe Burrow has turned in an MVP-caliber season for the Bengals this season. He’s already racked up 4,641 passing yards and 42 touchdowns, and he’s thrown for at least 250 yards and three scores in eight straight games. That’s a new NFL record, and it’s led to some big fantasy production. Despite Burrow not being nearly as adept with his legs as most of the top QBs in fantasy, he’s still the No. 3 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game. The Steelers aren’t an ideal matchup, but there’s no reason to shy away from Burrow at this point.
Running Back
Chase Brown: Start, RB2
Khalil Herbert: Start if Brown is out; sit otherwise
The status of the Bengals’ top running back will be extremely important to monitor heading into Saturday’s slate. Chase Brown has been an absolute workhorse for the Bengals down the stretch. From Weeks 10 through 16, Brown played on 87% of the team’s offensive snaps, handled 90% of their carries, and racked up a 14% target share. That’s quite possibly the best utilization in the entire league. He finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in five of those six contests, giving him one of the safest floors in fantasy.
However, Brown missed the end of last week’s contest with an ankle injury, and he’s yet to suit up at practice this week. He’s officially questionable vs. the Steelers, and there’s a real chance that he’s out of the lineup. If that’s the case, Khalil Herbert could assume a bell-cow role for the Bengals. He was basically the only other RB who saw the field besides Brown last week, so he could fill a similar role for the team’s offense.
Ultimately, Brown has been too good to bench if he’s active. If he’s out, Herbert becomes a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.
Wide Receiver
Ja’Marr Chase: Start, WR1
Tee Higgins: Start, WR1
Andre Iosivas: Bench, WR5
The Bengals’ passing attack is so dominant that they’ve supported two WR1s for fantasy purposes. Ja’Marr Chase has been the best receiver in fantasy this season, and the gap between him and the rest of the field is wide. He’s averaged 19.9 points per game in 0.5-PPR formats, which is nearly four more points than every other receiver. His target numbers have crept up since the start of the year — he has a 31% target share from Week 8 on — and he’s one of the most prolific touchdown scorers in football.
The crazy part is that Tee Higgins isn’t that far behind. He’s tied with Justin Jefferson for the No. 2 spot in terms of 0.5 PPR points per game (16.2). That figure is buoyed by a big showing last week, finishing with 11 receptions, 131 yards, and three touchdowns. When Higgins has been on the field this season, the gap between him and Chase hasn’t been that wide from a utilization standpoint. He’s posted a 26% target share for the year, and his air yards share is nearly identical to Chase’s.
The only real X-factor is that Higgins is questionable for this contest. However, he’s fully expected to be in the lineup. Unlike Brown, he’s at least been able to practice in a limited capacity, so he should be a full go.
Andrei Iosivas is the team’s No. 3 receiver, but he hasn’t seen enough consistent targets with the team at full strength. He would be a desperation flex play if Higgins is surprisingly inactive, but he’s not really startable if Higgins suits up.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki: Streaming Option, TE2
Mike Gesicki‘s best weeks this season have come when Higgins has been out of the lineup, so he’s another player who would benefit in that scenario. However, he still has some appeal even if Higgins suits up. He saw a big spike in routes in Week 17, and he racked up a very healthy 24% target share. That stands out as a bit of an outlier, but it makes Gesicki a decent streamer or TE2. He checks in somewhere around TE15 for me this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: Streaming Option, QB2
Russell Wilson just barely misses out on the QB1 tier this week. From a matchup standpoint, the Bengals are about as good as it gets. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and their defense has been a sieve all year. The Bengals can rack up points seemingly at will, but their defense is capable of giving them right back. Wilson torched this unit in their first matchup this season, racking up 414 passing yards with three touchdowns.
The only reason to be a bit skeptical of Wilson is the situation. If the Ravens take care of business against the Browns in the early game, the Steelers will be relegated to a Wild Card spot. They would still be playing for seeding in that scenario — and the No. 5 seed has a significantly easier matchup than the No. 6 seed in the first round — but Mike Tomlin may ease off just a tad on his starters down the stretch. I don’t necessarily think that will happen, but it’s something to at least keep in mind.
Running Back
Najee Harris: Start, RB2
Jaylen Warren: FLEX Option, RB3
The Steelers have found themselves in a lot of negative game scripts recently, which has had a serious impact on Najee Harris‘ production. He’s had just 28 total carries over his past three contests, and he’s seen a significant dropoff in fantasy scoring. If this game is more competitive, Harris should revert to being a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes. He had 129 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in his first game vs. the Bengals.
Jaylen Warren has been the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers’ recent struggles. He tends to play more than Harris in trailing situations, and the Steelers have had a lot of those of late. His snaps and opportunities are up over the past three weeks, culminating with five catches and 112 scrimmage yards last week vs. the Chiefs.
Warren might not see quite as much usage this week, but he’s been a dependable flex option for the second half of the year. He doesn’t have the greatest ceiling, but he’s a good bet for around 10 fantasy points most weeks.
Wide Receiver
George Pickens: Start, WR2
Calvin Austin: Sit, WR5
If you look up “has that dog in him” in the dictionary, you’ll find a picture of George Pickens. Pickens is an alpha receiver in every sense of the word, and he’s taken off with Wilson under center. He returned to the lineup in Week 17 following a three-game absence, and he was slightly limited in his first game back. However, he still has an outstanding 27% target share for the year. He’s also seen 44% of the team’s air yards, and he scored a touchdown in his first matchup vs. the Bengals. He doesn’t have quite as much upside as the true top receivers in fantasy, but he’s just a tier or two below in this matchup.
Calvin Austin is the only other Steelers’ receiver worth considering, and even that is pushing it. He had a couple of respectable showings when Pickens was out of the lineup, but he reverted to a 79% route participation and 12% target share last week. I have him outside the top 50 at the position vs. the Bengals.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth: Start, TE1
Pat Freiermuth is typically right on the TE1/TE2 borderline. However, his numbers have trended slightly up of late. He’s had a target share of at least 24% in two of his past three games, compared to just a 15% mark for the season. If he’s going to continue to see a couple of additional targets per game, he’s definitely worth rostering in a juicy matchup. The Bengals have been shredded by opposing tight ends all season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position.