Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, January 5th, 4:25 ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Network: FOX
Writer: Michael James
Hey gang, Michael James here filling in this week. We’re looking at the Seattle Seahawks traveling to the Los Angeles Rams to end the regular season in Week 18. While the Rams opened as -115 favorites, head coach Sean McVay had his press conference announcing his lineup changes, which dramatically shifted the line to the Seahawks, who are now -290 favorites. The over/under is 38.5, so it is not predicted to be a high-scoring affair. Nevertheless, we must venture forth and see where to get some fantasy points in this matchup.
Last week of regular season notice: Well, this is awkward. Imagine being eliminated from the playoffs, and the team that did it to you decides they’re not going to play their starters in the rematch for you to exact revenge on. McVay mentioned resting all of his starters on Monday, and people online started reacting whether he knew when he announced the changes that the Rams did not have their third seed position locked up. If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win and the Rams lose this game, they will fall to the fourth seed. McVay cleared all that up in his radio interview later that he was well aware of what was at stake; he just didn’t care. He stated he values getting his veterans and banged-up players some much-needed rest. Even if it means having to host the loser of the Detroit Lions/Minnesota Vikings game: “If you want to do what you’re going to do, you can’t necessarily duck anybody.” He said he’s even considering doing his “preseason role swap with an assistant” for this game with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur (brother of the Green Bay head coach).
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith: Sit
Smith has turned in a pedestrian 17:15 TD: INT ratio for this season. Since exiting the Green Bay game a few weeks ago with a knee injury, he’s averaged just under 16 fantasy points per game, and he already wasn’t a mobile quarterback to begin with before that injury. So, I’m not certain we won’t see some Sam Howell action in the second half of this one. Los Angeles is 19th against the quarterback position in fantasy, and I feel a lot of that was heavily inflated by the atrocity Josh Allen committed back in Week 14. To be fair, the fourth-best performance the Rams allowed this season was to Smith back in week 9. That said, I know a lot has changed since then, and even so, I am expecting a lot more handoffs in this game.
Running Back
Zach Charbonnet: Start, RB2
With Kenneth Walker being done for the year, everyone moves up a slot, which will see Charbonnet taking on an expanded role for this game, with about 20% of the snaps now going to Kenny McIntosh. I think both backs will see high volume for this one. Charbonnet has started three of the last four games, receiving at least three targets in each of those games while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. In his limited work earlier this year against the Rams, he finished the game with 2 carries and 2 receptions. If the Seahawks get up early, look for them to sit on their lead and run the clock out with the running game attack. The Rams are 14th against the running back position in fantasy, and that’s including what Saquon Barkley did to them in Week 12.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf: FLEX Option, WR3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Start, WR2
Metcalf started the season strong but has fallen off and has not been the same since coming back from the injury that caused him to miss a few weeks in the middle of the season. Couple that with the struggles of his quarterback this year, and you get a disappointing draft return for managers that took him as their wide receiver this season. I don’t think a lot of it is on Smith, however, as Smith-Njigba has been delivering in the second half of the season after their bye. Well, barring downpours in Chicago, anyway. While he might not have overtaken Metcalf on the depth chart, he’s the number one in fantasy on the Seahawks with a 20 fantasy point per game average in the three games before last week’s disaster class of football against the Bears. Earlier in the year, he went off against the Rams for 180 yards on 7 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Metcalf missed that game with a knee injury.
Tight End
Noah Fant: Sit
Fant has been the model of consistency lately, with 3 receptions per game in four straight before one-upping that with 4 receptions last week. Unfortunately, he is also consistently overlooked in the red zone, being held without a single touchdown all season long. Those have gone to their rookie tight end, AJ Barner. Barner’s usage is wildly unreliable and not worth consideration outside of bench depth for dynasty teams with an eye on next season.
D/ST
I write the weekly D/ST streaming article for QBList, so I’ll throw my two cents in on what I think about the position in fantasy in this game.
Seahawks: Stream
Seattle primed themselves last week with seven sacks and allowing three points to vault them into the top 10 fantasy defenses overall for the entire season. Now they will look to repeat that performance against Jimmy Garoppolo, who will be throwing to the second/third string receiving corps for the Rams.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo: Sit
While McVay hinted at all the starters resting, he specifically mentioned two players by name that will be sitting out, and one of them was Matthew Stafford. I’m pretty certain the Venn diagram of teams this far in the playoffs and teams realistically considering starting Garoppolo are two completely separated, mutually exclusive circles. But I’m in the championship for my 32-team four Superflex 2 quarterback fantasy league! Come on, man, really?? Fine. The Seahawks are in the top 10 against the quarterback position in fantasy after putting Caleb Williams in the dirt mud last week. The last time they allowed a quarterback to go over 250 yards was Week 14, and that was only by 9 yards. Seattle has the seventh-fewest passing yards allowed and the seventh-highest quarterback pressure rating going against a quarterback that hasn’t taken a snap in the NFL since last season, where he went 0 for 1 with a QBR of .4
Running Back
Blake Corum: Start, RB2
In a show of durability, workhorse Kyren Williams has started every game for the Rams this season and took less than 80% of the snaps only once all year long. He might not be out for this game, but he certainly isn’t going to do anything meaningful. That leaves us with the rookie Corum, who had 24 carries for 95 yards over four games heading into last week, where he went the wrong direction for -4 yards on 3 carries. I still remember the preseason, where there were rumblings of Corum getting to split a 50/50 share in the backfield while Williams fields punt returns. At least now we will get to see what the rookie can do with a full complement of snaps against a Seahawk defense that is middle of the road against the rush.
Wide Receiver
Tutu Atwell: FLEX Option, WR3
Jordan Whittington: FLEX Option, WR4
So, if veterans are getting a rest, that most certainly applies to Cooper Kupp. My assumption is also that Puka Nacua is too valuable to risk as well, especially considering that he missed the first half of the season with an injury. Seattle has one of the lower air yards to targets on completions allowed in the league, and if Jimmy G is as rusty as I fear he is, I’m not confident at all recommending managers fill their starter slots with receivers down the depth chart in championship week no less. Still, I presume Los Angeles will be playing from behind, and someone will have to catch the balls. Atwell has seen a steady snap count share hovering around 30% this season, and last week was the first time since week one that he was held without a catch. You might remember Whittington from such games as “Week 4 and 5 against the NFC North” as he filled in for when both Kupp and Nacua missed time together around the start of the season. Both Atwell and Whittington had double-digit fantasy points per game when they were seeing above 80% snap counts before the Rams early bye week.
Tight End
Hunter Long: Sit
I went digging into the preseason to see who was catching passes at tight end, and it was a split between Hunter Long and Davis Allen. Between the pair of them, Long has registered actual fantasy points the most recently (Week 15), so I wrote his name as the entry. However, of the two of them, Allen had the lone meaningful stat line of the season back in Week 10 with 5 receptions for 34 yards. I don’t know why I’m even going this far in depth with this, to be honest, I’m not recommending anyone start either of the two, as you will have better luck on the waiver wire with players at the position on teams that are still playing for something meaningful.
D/ST
Rams: Sit
See: “Rams benching their starters for Week 18”