Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 28th at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, Colorado
Betting Odds: DEN +1.5, 48 over/under total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater (Sit)
The Denver Broncos have had an up and down season. They started the season on a 3 game win streak and then promptly went on a 4 game winning streak. In the last 3 weeks, they won 2 then won their last game before their week 11 bye week. Teddy Bridgewater has been a huge question mark for the Broncos. He has had some good games in games they lost and some not-so-great games in team wins. He has been pretty safe with the ball only having 5 interceptions on the year and those came in a 3-week span. What has been his downfall for his fantasy production is the lack of touchdowns. He has only one game with over 3 touchdowns, and 4 games with 1 or fewer total touchdowns. He hasn’t been running the ball much at all which was a nice upside last year. He comes off the bye facing a very tough passing defense in the Chargers. The Chargers do allow for short passing which could lend itself to Bridgewater having a decent day but I expect a tough matchup for two glove Teddy.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, Flex), Javonte Williams (Start, Flex)
No one that has watched the Broncos this season or even looked at the box score will argue that Javonte Williams is the better back. Williams has outperformed Melvin Gordon in yards per carry 5.0 to 4.4. Melvin Gordon is the running back to own this year due to his touchdowns. He has 5 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving which best Williams 1 and 1. The Chargers have a run funnel defense which should allow both to have good days. I lowered both of them because coming out of a bye there is a chance that the team changes things up and gives one the true workload over the other. If it remains the same I have no problem starting either running back. I love that the team as a whole is focusing on the run. It projects to be a high-scoring game but a game with lots of rushing on both sides of the ball.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Start, WR2), Courtland Sutton (Sit, Flex), Tim Patrick (Start, Flex), Noah Fant (Start), Albert Okwuegbunam (Sit)
As the rushing game has been very good the passing game has been so so. We’ve already gone over the puzzling season for Bridgewater. It’s hard to project what a team may look like coming out of their bye week but we can look at recent history to get some information. If you look at the wide receiver over the past 3 weeks Jerry Jeudy has led the way with 21 targets compared to 14 for Tim Patrick and 9 for Cortland Sutton. What’s surprising looking at those numbers is the snap counts. Jeudy is only playing roughly 70% of the team’s snaps compared to 88% and 82% for Sutton and Patrick. Patrick has been the waiver star this fantasy season, leading the wide receiver group with 4 touchdowns. Now that does come with Jeudy missing 6 games. Sutton has had 11 red-zone targets so that gives him some upside but the targets aren’t there to make him startable. Leading the team in red-zone targets is a tight end, Noah Fant. He has 13 on the season and is second on the team with 3 touchdowns. Fant is one of the pieces in the offense you want. In a fantasy tight end landscape you have one of the top 2 passing options on a team. I can’t fault someone for starting Sutton based on where you drafted him and who else might be on your roster but he has been disappointing since weeks 5,6, and 7. The returning of Jeudy has thrown another mouth to feed in a low-volume passing offense. The Broncos should be playing from behind most of the game so they will pass more than they normally do but even from behind they rely on the run game.
Los Angles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Sit, QB2)
Everyone loves Justin Herbert. What’s not to love. He’s a second-year quarterback who plays like he has been in the league for 5 years. He throws a pretty ball and runs like a running back. The fantasy world likes Herbert but he can be hit or miss. He has 5 games with 3 or more touchdowns but has 4 games with 1 or fewer touchdowns. The up and down season has made Herbert a hot topic for sit-start. I would sit him this week against Denver. They are ranked 4th by CBS in giving up points to the quarterback position. The game projects to be a lower scoring game and the Chargers should be in the lead and be running the ball more than passing. Herbert does have a small rushing upside and comes off a week 11 game where he led the team with 98 rushing yards. You may not have a better option this week but I would be exploring them if they are out there.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1) Larry Roundtree (Sit)
What’s not to love about Austin Ekeler. He’s 14th in the league in rushing yards, 3rd in receptions at the running back position. The Broncos do have a decent rushing defense but Ekeler has the talent to overcome that. He only has 1 game under 10 points on the season and has 3 games over 25 with another right on the cusp. His pass-catching work has been a huge boon to his fantasy production. He has only 2 games with under 5 targets on the season and is averaging 5.8 per game on the season. He is only playing on 66.7% of the team’s snaps. Larry Roundtree and Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley have been rotated in to spell Ekeler. After an amazing week 11 game, the Chargers will look to continue his success.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Start, WR3), Jalen Guyton (Sit), Jared Cook (Sit), Donald Parham (Sit)
Would you like a wide receiver who is averaging 10.6 targets a game, is on pace for 125 receptions, 1377 yards, and is averaging 10.95 yards per reception. He only has 2 touchdowns on the season with 18 red-zone targets? If the answer is yes then fire up your Keenan Allen.
would you like a wide receiver who is averaging 7.8 targets per game, is on pace for 78 receptions, 1198 yards, and is averaging 15.33 yards per reception? He has 7 touchdowns on the season with 14 red-zone targets? If the answer is yes then fire up your Mike Williams.
Both wide receivers have stats that make you want to start them and those that are red flags. I think you have to start your stud in Keenan Allen based on volume and you put Mike Williams out there based on production efficiency. After those 2 you have Jalen Guyton who has been nothing for fantasy. Tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham have been hurting each other’s value. Cook seems to be the one getting the targets while Parham is getting the touchdowns. Neither has enough volume or production to be startable for fantasy.
– Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)