Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 128th at 1 PM ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Betting Odds: IND +2.5, 51 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start)
Yes, Tom Brady still has it. He seems to be playing better now than he did in his 20s. Since coming back from a week 9 bye Brady has thrown for a combined 527 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has been giving owners some sense of worry. He has thrown 3 interceptions in that same two-game span. He has 8 interceptions on the season, He only has 3 seasons where he has had less. He is bound to throw some more. The Colts do not have a great pass defense but they are tied for 3rd in the NFL with 13 interceptions. I still expect Brady to be a top QB option. He has some amazing weapons to throw the ball too and the game projects to be a shoot-out. Who would you start over Tom Brady? He’s the goat, and we saw him show off his 44-year-old wheels on a 10-yard dash in week 11. Lamar Jackson watch out!
Running Backs
Leonard Fourentte (Start, RB2), Ronald Jones (Sit), Gio Bernard (Sit), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Sit)
The Tampa Bay rushing attack has been pretty anemic in recent weeks. Leonard Fournette has been the leader in carries but has only seen on average 9 carries over the past 3 weeks. The 8 he got in week 8 had owners hoping that it was a fluke. After the week 9 bye he still only saw 11 and 10 in the next two games. He is still pretty efficient on those carries averaging roughly 3.7 yards per carry. He is also getting plenty of passing game work which was supposed to be Gio Bernard‘s role in the offense. Bernard has been less than stellar since signing with the Bucs in the offseason. Back up Ronald Jones scored a touchdown in week 11 but that was his only saving grace for fantasy. Going against CBS’s top-rated rushing defense makes me only want to start Fournette this week. It was really nice to see Ke’Shawn Vaughn get some work as someone holding him still in dynasty, even if he was not great on his limited work.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, Wr2), Antonio Brown (Sit, Flex), Rob Gronkowski (Start, TE1)
It’s early in the week so we still don’t know if Antonio Brown will be back. I expect he will be out. If he plays I would make him a low-end WR3 or a flex play. Congrats to Mike Evans for becoming the Tamps all-time touchdown leader. He has scored in the past 4 games and has 10 total touchdowns on the season. It is frustrating to look at his target numbers week to week. His 11 targets week 11 was great but his week 8 and 10 numbers of 3 and 4 were maddening. He saved his days but scoring in those games but volume is usually a huge factor in fantasy performance. I still think he is worth starting every week right now. Chris Godwin has been the more consistent wide receiver. He is seeing consistent targets and has scored in 2 of the last 3 games. Both Godwin and Evans are starting for you in fantasy. You are also starting the returned Rob Gronkowski. He returned to the lineup in week 11 and got 8 targets hauling in 6 of them for 71 yards. He is still a dominant presence on the field and has Brady’s trust. The other receiving options like O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, and Tyler Johnson are just touchdown dependant players who don’t have the volume or opportunities you want for fantasy.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (Start, QB1)
The Buccaneers have a middle-of-the-road pass defense so I expect Carson Wentz to continue his good play this week. I have him at the back end of my startable quarterbacks. He could be limited by low volume as we saw in week 11. If Jonathan Taylor continues to dominate I expect Wentz to have similar numbers to week 11. The hope is he will get more than 20 passing attempts. Wentz has been willing to scramble some this season so if he faces pressure he could provide some rushing upside. He still has some decent weapons and hopes to get some back from injury this week. Even with what he has available he has put up top 12 numbers in weeks 8 and 9. He fell down to the 20s weeks 10 and 11 but that was because of a strong rushing game and playing with the lead.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Nyheim Hines (Sit, Flex), Deon Jackson (Sit), Marlon Mack (Sit)
If I told you that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns in a week you would be super happy. If I told you that came against one of the best defenses in the world you would be really happy. Now double those stats and you have what JT did in week 11 against the Bills. Knowing that you have to have confidence in former Wisconsin Badger as he faces another perceived tough defense in Tampa Bay. Truth be told the Tampa-run defense isn’t as stout as they are believed to be. Week 10 Antonio Gibson rushed for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24 carries. Alvin Kamara had 61 yards and a score in week 8. Taylor has similar if not better ability than those two rushers so he should be a top RB in week 12 against Tampa. He’s locked into your lineup this week and probably every week going forward. Nyheim Hines could be an interesting flex play this week if you are desperate. He is still getting some work in the passing game and with it projecting to be a shoot out there could be the need for more passing. I’m holding off on him but he’s still worth a roster spot if anything were to happen to Taylor. Marlon Mack has lost his spot to Deon Jackson which is a sad sign for Makc who was looking to get traded before the deadline.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr (Start, WR1), Zach Pascal (Start, Flex), T.Y. Hilton (Sit), Ashton Dulin (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit), Mo Allie-Cox (Sit)
All the Colts wideouts had a down week against the Bills. Not due to the defense but because Taylor had a once-in-a-lifetime game. I expect the passing game to resume their fantasy-relevant ways against the Bucs. You are going to start Michael Pittman. He has been the one on the team. There isn’t much to knock on him. He’s been a real fantasy surprise. The other two real receiving options of T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal could be interesting plays this week. If the Bucs focus on stopping Taylor and the run game there could be room for a wide receiver outside of Pittman. Looking at snap percentages it would seem that Pascal is the other passing weapon you may want to start. He played on 78% of the team’s Week 11 snaps which were a season-low for him. He usually plays around 87%. T.Y. Hilton only played 41% of the team’s snaps in week 11 which was a down from his week 10, 61%. Since the over/under has this as a shoot out I think flexing Pascal is a decent play. Good news for tight end streamers everywhere, the Colts have seemed to pick who will be their tight end. Jack Doyle took the majority of the snaps in week 11. He played 74% compared to 41% for Mo Allie-Cox. This could be a product of a larger portion of running plays and Doyle blocking so I will wait one more week before I start Doyle as a streamer. Knowing how things have gone Allie-Cox will play more snaps and score this week making things murky going into week 13.
-Dustin Ludke (Dunit13dl on Reddit)