Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 25th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting Odds: NO +4.5 , 46.5 Total on Vegas Insider
Network: NBC
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
It’s been an up-and-down year for Josh Allen, and Week 11 was just another part of the roller-coaster experience. He finished with a 38.6 PFF passing grade and with six yards/pass attempt in a 38-15 loss to the Colts, which was another reminder of the step back he’s taken this year. For fantasy, though, don’t be worried about Allen. As part of the league’s most pass-happy offense, he continues to see elite passing volume, while he remains a factor as a runner as well. Until further notice, he remains a top-three quarterback moving forward.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (Sit, Low-End RB3), Devin Singletary (Sit, Low-End RB3), Matt Breida (Sit, Low-End RB4)
A three-way backfield committee for the offense that runs the ball at the lowest rate? No thank you. With Matt Breida now involved in this offense, I wouldn’t advise starting any of these running backs, especially against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Expect this to be the status quo moving forward with this offense until Breida leaves the mix.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Cole Beasley (Start, WR3/FLEX), Emmanuel Sanders (Sit, Low-End WR3), Gabriel Davis (Sit, WR5), Dawson Knox (Start, Low-End TE1)
Even in a loss, Stefon Diggs managed to score two touchdowns and finish with 16.3 PPR points, which was nice to see. Diggs is starting to see his massive amount of targets (27 over the past three weeks) translate into strong production, and even if he’s matched up with Marshon Lattimore, he remains a top-five receiver heading into this week. However, I’d also keep an eye on the Bills’ complementary receivers, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders; New Orleans has struggled mightily against #2 receivers this season. Also, keep a close eye on tight end Dawson Knox. He was on the field for 55 of the team’s 56 snaps in Week 11, and received ten targets as a result. With his touchdown upside and utilization, he’s certainly a TE1 moving forward, even against the Saints defense, which has done well against tight ends this year.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian (Sit, Low-End QB2)
Is Trevor Siemian becoming this year’s fantasy cheat code? Here are the 29-year-old’s fantasy stats in his three starts this year:
- Week 9: 18 fantasy points (10th)
- Week 10: 19.9 fantasy points (4th)
- Week 11: 26.6 fantasy points (4th)
How is this happening? Per Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, Siemian’s numbers in the fourth quarter compared to the other quarters is staggering:
Trevor Siemian PFF passing grade:
1st-3rd quarters: 50.3 (dead last out of 46 QBs)
4th quarter: 92.3 (1st)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 22, 2021
I could see Siemian once again posting great numbers playing from behind, but he’s walking a thin line here. The Bills pass defense remains one of the top units in the NFL, and I wouldn’t want to challenge them with a fringy option like Siemian, unless this were a superflex league. Hey, I’m hoping we see some Siemian magic again, because why not!
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara* (Start, RB1), Ingram (Sit if Kamara Plays, High-End RB if Kamara Doesn’t Play), Tony Jones Jr. (Sit)
Is this the week Alvin Kamara returns from his knee injury? We can certainly hope so. He’s his normal top-ten running back self if healthy, but I’d knock him down a tad due to a likely reduced workload. If he doesn’t play, fire up Mark Ingram as a high-end RB2. He’s earned 32.4 expected PFF expected points in his two games without Kamara this year, including an eight-target performance this past week. The Bills historically aren’t a team keen on stopping the run, so we could see head coach Sean Payton not afraid to work his running backs this week.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Trequan Smith (Sit, Low-End WR4), Marquez Callaway (Sit, Low-End WR4), Deonte Harris (Sit, WR5), Juwan Johnson (Sit)
The Saints passing game is a mess, with targets being extremely close between these players. Trequan Smith, with a 98% snap rate and usage in the slot, appears to be pulling away from the pack, and Buffalo hasn’t been great against slot receivers this year. Meanwhile, Marquez Callaway has weekly touchdown upside, Deonte Harris has the highest target rate per route run, Adam Trautman, the team’s leader in targets over the past three weeks, will miss the next 4-6 weeks due to a sprained MCL. You’re likely not starting any of these players unless you have to, but at least they’re all interesting!
All Stats via Pro Football Focus