Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 10th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: BUF +2.5, 56.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, High-end QB1)
Josh Allen had a bit of a slow start (for his standards) but has done well over the past two weeks. The impressive play should continue as this week’s match-up should have fantasy managers salivating. The Chiefs are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game, and this contest should be high-scoring. Josh has plenty of opportunity for a fantastic fantasy performance in Week 5. Start with extreme confidence.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (Start, High-end Flex), Devin Singletary (Sit)
For fantasy purposes, it seems that Zach Moss is the most valuable running back in Buffalo. His carries have been trending up for the past three weeks and he’s getting most of the red zone work. His scoring upside (four touchdowns in the last three weeks) makes Moss the more dependable Bills back. Plus, the Chiefs have allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league so far this year. Moss should be capable of a Flex performance this week with RB2 upside.
I’m putting Devin Singletary towards the bottom of the RB3 tier this week. He’s averaging a little over 10 fantasy points per game this year and has only found the end zone once. Singletary will stay involved in Buffalo (he split carries with Moss last week), but I need to see more consistent production before I trust him in a starting lineup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Emmanuel Sanders (Start, Flex with upside), Cole Beasley (Sit), Dawson Knox (Start, TE1)
Stefon Diggs has been good this year, but he hasn’t yet reached the level of elite fantasy performances he recorded last season. Fantasy managers shouldn’t worry, though. Diggs is averaging over 10 targets a game, seeing plenty of red-zone targets, and recorded his first 100-yard game of the season last week. The juicy match-up against the struggling Kansas City defense should give Stefon all the opportunity he needs to return to the WR1 tier.
Emmanuel Sanders is emerging as a weekly Flex option in PPR leagues. He’s pretty much everything you would want in a Flex candidate. Sanders gets consistent targets (averaging over six per game) and is part of a high-powered offense with a talented quarterback. He should have good potential upside most weeks. I get the feeling the Bills will throw the heck out of the football to try and take advantage of the Chiefs’ secondary, meaning Emmanuel should have plenty of upside in a potential shootout.
I’m putting Cole Beasley just outside Flex territory this week. He’s had as many duds as he’s had good games this year but what concerns me is the inconsistent targets. He has two games with 13 targets and two games with only four or fewer. Beasley’s inconsistency has me shying away from him in Week 5.
Dawson Knox is looking like a legitimate TE1. The young tight end’s targets are trending up, and he’s caught four touchdowns in his last three games. The Chiefs have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2021, so I like Knox’s chances for another TE1 performance.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
This game could produce two of the highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks of Week 5. Patrick Mahomes is the overall fantasy QB1 and threw five touchdowns just last week. Buffalo has allowed the fewest passing yards of any NFL team this year, but the tough match-up won’t be enough to bench the best fantasy quarterback in the league. I’m expecting a high-scoring game, and Mahomes will likely turn in another elite fantasy performance.
Running Backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Start, RB2), Darrel Williams (Sit)
Unfortunately, it looks like fantasy managers will need to take the good with the bad when it comes to Clyde Edwards-Helaire this year. The young man seems to be trending up with back-to-back 100-yard games, but he’s only reached RB1 territory once in 2021. CEH barely achieved RB1 status last week, but it would have been a more impressive performance if Darrel Williams hadn’t vultured a one-yard touchdown. Williams’ carries have trended up all year, and the Chiefs seem hell-bent on throwing the football. Edwards-Helaire hasn’t seen more than 17 carries yet this season. CEH is a talented back on a great team, but this situation could trap him in RB2 territory for most of the season. Next up is a tough match-up against a Buffalo defense allowing only 68 rushing yards per game. I believe CEH ends up in RB2 territory again this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Mecole Hardman (Sit), Demarcus Robinson (Sit), Byron Pringle (Sit), Josh Gordon (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
Surprisingly, Tyreek Hill already has two single-digit fantasy performances this year (something he only did once in 2020). Hill is still the overall WR2 on the 2021 season with two monster games despite his two disappointing performances. The Bills’ secondary has been fantastic this year, but it won’t be enough to downgrade Hill. Fire up Tyreek like you already have been for the past four weeks.
It looks like Josh Gordon will suit up for the Chiefs this week. Fantasy football’s favorite meme is back in the NFL, but I’m tempering expectations for now. Gordon seems to still be in great shape, but he’s 30 years old now and likely doesn’t know the Kansas City playbook very well yet. The Chiefs will probably ease Josh in with a limited snap count. Give it a week before the hype train officially leaves the station.
It seems like no true WR2 has emerged in Kansas City, and perhaps that’s why they signed Gordon. Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle haven’t been consistent enough to trust in fantasy lineups this year. It’s too much stress trying to figure out which of these three barely reaches Flex territory each week.
I could’ve sworn Travis Kelce was a total bust with the way fantasy managers were freaking out about him last week. Sure, Kelce had an uncharacteristically poor fantasy performance in Week 4, but he’s still the overall TE1 in PPR leagues. The main concern was that Travis only saw six targets last week, but that doesn’t happen often. The last time Kelce had six or fewer targets in one game was Week 7 last year. This week’s match-up against the Bills could prove challenging (Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year), but fantasy managers need to have trust in their elite asset. I’m expecting a solid bounce-back performance from Travis.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)