Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 10th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Betting Odds: TEN -4, 48.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Sit)
It had to be somewhat expected for Ryan Tannehill to struggle some last week when it was confirmed he would be without his top two WRs, but I don’t think many could have predicted an overtime loss to the Jets. Tannehill dropped back to pass 49 times in the game and was pressured on nearly 25% of those dropbacks. Tannehill was sacked seven times, took six hits, and was hurried once leading to a sub-300 yard game despite 30 completions. The Titans face another “overmatched” opponent this week in the Jaguars but questions still surround A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and practice reports this week will be of the utmost importance as to their potential availability. I’m expecting another run-heavy approach, thus limiting Tannehill’s upside and giving him fantasy value only in leagues that allow for two starting QBs. Tannehill slots in as a mid-QB2 but could sneak into the lower QB1 tier if both Brown and Jones play.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Jeremy McNichols (Sit, possible Flex if Brown and Jones are out)
For the second time this season, Derrick Henry eclipsed the 30-carry mark on his way to another dominant performance against the Jets. Henry rumbled for 157 yards and punched in a short TD to finish among the RB1’s again last week. Henry’s involvement in the passing was down from the first three weeks, but he still saw two targets and secured both for a little extra bump in his fantasy production. The Titans are once again expected to win this week, which should bode well for Henry’s final stats. He was drafted as an RB1 and should be considered as such until the wheels fall off. Plug him in and enjoy the rewards in Week 5.
The injuries to Tennessee’s WR corps allowed Jeremy McNichols to make an impact in the passing game and Tannehill looked for McNichols frequently against the Jets. McNichols garnered a team-high 12 targets and converted them into eight receptions for 74 yards, also both team highs. McNichols was a viable starting option last week because of his involvement in the passing game and might be an option again this week depending on the health of Brown and Jones. Fantasy managers will want to monitor reports coming out of Titans’ practices this week as McNichols could be a sneaky pickup at RB for those needing help at the position. If either WR is healthy, that will put a serious dent in McNichols’ fantasy value and would render him nearly useless.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Sit), Julio Jones (Sit), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Chester Rogers (Sit), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Anthony Firkser/Geoff Swaim/MyCole Pruitt (Sit)
As of this writing, which is Wednesday morning, the statuses of both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are up in the air. Both WRs saw hamstring injuries keep them out of Tennessee’s Week 4 game and those types of injuries can be notoriously tricky to navigate and have been known to cause lengthy recovery times if not allowed to heal properly. The Titans do have a bit more downtime after this week’s game as they host Buffalo on Monday night in Week 6 which could impact the team’s decision on whether to play either Jones or Brown. Right now, I’m assuming one or both will be limited at best and potentially out one more game heading into an important AFC showdown with Buffalo. If either player gets full clearance this week, I’d bump him up to a low-end WR2, and if both play they’re each a WR3. This is a tricky situation to navigate, but we’ll do our best to stay on top of it throughout the rest of the week.
Despite the absences of Brown and Jones, no WR was able to return fantasy-startable numbers in the team’s Week 4 loss to the Jets. Chester Rogers had the best day at the position, converting his six targets into five receptions for 63 yards. Josh Reynolds lead the WRs in targets with nine but managed just six receptions for 59 yards. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine saw eight targets but was held in check to the tune of three receptions for 29 yards. Despite increased roles and snaps, it’s hard to suggest which, if any, of this group will be able to return numbers that will warrant attention from fantasy managers this week.
Anthony Firkser returned from his two-game absence and lead the team in snaps and targets at the position. That didn’t lead to much production, but it does establish Firkser as the primary option for the team. Firkser sees a handful of targets each game but has yet to find the end zone and is simply too unreliable for fantasy managers to consider him as a starting option for now. With Firkser back on the field, both Geoff Swaim and MyCole Pruitt have become afterthoughts in the passing game and don’t warrant attention from fantasy managers any longer.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Sit)
Although there are exceptions, rookie QBs are known to struggle as they transition from college to the NFL as the speed and complexity of the game are vastly different. Trevor Lawrence is not one of those exceptions so far this season. After his Week 1 performance in which Lawrence attempted 51 passes, Lawrence has attempted a combined 91 passes in the past three games and has been unable to reach the 300-yard plateau or have a multi-TD game since. In the team’s Week 4 loss to Cincinnati, Jacksonville turned to the run game more and the defense was unable to hold on to a fourth-quarter lead Lawrence and the offense had been able to build. I think Lawrence will continue to improve but I also think Jacksonville will lean more on the running game thus limiting Lawrence’s fantasy appeal. Tennessee’s defense against another rookie QB in Week 4, Zach Wilson, might give fantasy managers who have Lawrence on their roster a glimmer of hope this week, Jacksonville has a much better ground game and that will be a big factor in Lawrence’s final numbers. Sit Lawerence this week.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Start, RB2), Carlos Hyde(Sit)
Just before the start of the 2020 NFL season, the Jaguars surprisingly released Leonard Fournette and elevated James Robinson into the starting role. Robinson was a surprising success in the early part of the season, earning him the nickname “RobinSZN” among some of the Redditors. Robinson barely registered in the boxscore in Week 1 with just eight touches but his role has grown every week, culminating in a great Week 4 stat line of 18 carries, 78 yards, and two TDs. Jacksonville’s commitment to the run nearly lead to an upset victory of Cincinnati but the defense was unable to maintain the lead late. Last week’s success should lead to continued involvement and should return rewards for fantasy managers who stuck with Robinson. Expect at least RB2 numbers with low-end RB1 upside in a game that should feature two very good RBs.
Carlos Hyde was a surprise inactive before Jacksonville’s Week 4 game against Cincinnati and I’ve not seen any new information as to the reason. Hyde was only a bit player through the first three weeks of the season, but his presence was enough to ding Robinson’s value slightly. If Hyde is active this week it doesn’t change his value to fantasy managers though it might lower Robinson’s ceiling. Hyde is not a startable option this week even if active.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Laviska Shenault (Start, WR3/Flex), Marvin Jones (Sit), Tavon Austin (Sit), Dan Arnold (Sit), Chris Manhertz (Sit)
The Jaguars lost a key component in their passing game last week as D.J. Chark suffered a broken ankle on the team’s first series, ending his season. The biggest beneficiary looks like it may be Lavishka Shenault as he more than doubled every other player in targets with seven. Shenault was able to convert those targets into six receptions for 99 yards, also leading the team. It remains to be seen if Jacksonville will continue to limit Lawrence’s attempts and focus on the run, but the success last week would indicate that may be the case for at least another week. That limits the upside of all the Jacksonville receiving options and makes Shenault more of a WR3 or Flex option this week.
Marvin Jones started the season looking like a potential WR1 with TDs in each of his first two games and plenty of targets to support good fantasy production. Those numbers fell off a cliff in Week 4 as Jones saw just three targets despite being on the field for 93% of the team’s offensive snaps. Was Week 4 an anomaly or the start of a trend? I don’t know for sure but if Lawrence continues to run a low-volume passing attack and prefers Shenault over Jones it could be a lost season for the veteran. I don’t think Jacksonville can support more than one fantasy-viable WR, so I’d advise benching Jones this week.
After Chark’s injury, Jacksonville turned to Tavon Austin as their third WR but the speedster was barely a blip on the radar registering just one reception on three targets for eight yards. Again, I don’t think Lawrence or this passing attack can provide enough quality targets for more than one WR, so pass on Austin for this week.
It will be interesting to see how Jacksonville elects to use newly-acquired Dan Arnold going forward. Arnold joined the team just days before their Week 4 game and saw 32% of the team’s snaps and led the TEs in targets despite that number being only two. Arnold was able to secure both targets for 29 yards and I expect a full week of practice should expand his role. I think Arnold will eventually become the best fantasy TE on the team, but this low-volume offense isn’t fantasy-friendly. I’d look elsewhere for help at the TE position for Week 5.
Chris Manhertz will likely see a reduction in playing time with Arnold now in town. His already low fantasy appeal is even lower now. Manhertz can be avoided in all fantasy leagues.