Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, October 11th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: M & T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Betting Odds: BAL -7, 46 Total on Oddshark
Network: ESPN
Indianapolis Colts
QUARTERBACK
Carson Wentz (Sit)
Carson Wentz’s fall from grace will no doubt be a focal point of the Monday Night Football broadcast. The 2017 NFL MVP candidate endured a series of injuries, to himself and his offensive line, and willed his team to the playoffs in 2019 by putting the Philadelphia Eagles on his back and guiding them to four straight victories to close out the regular season.
Unfortunately, the wheels fall off in spectacular fashion last season, leading to a trade to the Indianapolis Colts. Wentz was reunited with former offensive coordinator and current head coach Frank Reich. Optimism abounded this offseason for the second overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Alas, a familiar vicious cycle, kickstarted by injuries, began anew this offseason and now casts a long shadow over his fresh start.
Carson Wentz since start of last season:
Record: 3-11-1
Pass TD: 19
Turnovers: 21 (most in NFL)
Sacks Taken: 58 (most in NFL) pic.twitter.com/l5EUPz9EKg— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 29, 2021
Week 4 offered a glimmer of hope for Wentz, who captained the Colts to a 27 – 17 victory on the road against the Miami Dolphins. The Colts were slight underdogs in part because Wentz was playing on two sprained ankles, without top offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, recently placed on IR. Wentz completed 24 of 32 passes for 228 yards, tossing a pair of touchdowns in the process.
Wentz, as he did when successful under Reich in Philadelphia, spread the ball around well, completing passes to 10 different receivers. He didn’t throw an interception, compiling a very respectable 115.1 passer rating in the process. So, we can start him now, right?
It was a step in the right direction for Wentz, but the Baltimore Ravens are a much more formidable foe. As a unit, they’ve given up a surprisingly high volume of passing yards. Unlike the Dolphins, however, the Ravens rank among the league’s Top Ten in quarterback sacks. With Nelson on IR, the Colts have struggled to protect their quarterback; Wentz offers a high-risk, medium-reward gamble for those streaming quarterbacks, but he’s a strict avoid until we see Wentz string a few impressive performances together.
RUNNING BACKS
Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB1), Nyhiem Hines (Flex), Marlon Mack (Sit)
Jonathan Taylor compiled over 110 yards on 19 touches last week and scored his first touchdown of 2021 during the Colts’ first win of the season. However, he’ll travel to Baltimore for a prime-time road game against a Ravens defense that ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed to running backs this season.
Only one team has allowed more rushing touchdowns on the ground than the Ravens, however, offering a respectable chance for Taylor to repeat last week’s fantasy success. However, we anticipate a negative game script, and here are Taylor’s rushing averages during the Colts’ three losses this season: 14 carries, 57 yards, 0 TD.
Taylor also saw just one target in each of the last two losses, so he barely qualifies as an RB1 this week, given the game’s expected game flow. It’s easy to see a scenario in which the Colts fall behind early and are forced to rely more on Nyheim Hines and the passing game, leaving fantasy managers rooting for garbage time goal line work. While we like Hines as a flex option this week, Marlon Mack shouldn’t be rostered in most 12 team PPR leagues right now.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Michael Pittman (Start, WR3), Zach Pascal (Sit), Parris Campbell (Sit), Mo Alie Cox (Sit), Jack Doyle (Sit)
Despite the Colts’ desire to spread the football around in the passing game, Micheal Pittman is establishing himself as the club’s alpha. The USC product has led the team in targets for three consecutive weeks, averaging 10.7 per game. However, he enters a below-average matchup against a fairly strong Ravens defense one that ranks eighth in points allowed to opposing fantasy wide receivers. We’re cautiously optimistic, and see Pittman as a solid WR3 with upside.
Zach Pascal is an uninspired flex option, despite what a couple of rare, recent spike weeks tell us. Pascal won’t post a zero for managers who roll the dice on him, but the odds of another two-touchdown “spike week” this season are low, especially in this particular matchup. He has yet to rack up more than 44 yards in any game this season, so fantasy managers would be wise to look elsewhere this week.
Despite our deepest wishes for him to grow into the player we thought he’d be when he came out of Ohio State, Parris Campbell is not a thing, and it’s looking like he won’t become one anytime soon. He has yet to see more than four targets in any game this season. In short, Campbell is an afterthought for us for as long as he remains one in the Colts’ offense.
Mo Alie Cox and Jack Doyle have a favorable draw against a Ravens defense that’s statistically more generous to tight ends than any other team in the NFL. However, each player cannibalizes the other’s fantasy value, rendering both as nothing more than streaming options at best.
Baltimore Ravens
QUARTERBACKS
Lamar Jackson (Start)
Lamar Jackson in primetime on Monday Night Football? At home? Yes, please! This writer (QB List Staff Writer Drew DeLuca) has Lamar Jackson listed second overall this week in his Week 5 rankings on FantasyPros.com, and with good reason: Jackson draws the eighth most generous defense to opposing quarterbacks. Interestingly, the Colts have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and no team has given up more passing touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season. Don’t even think about taking Lamar out of your lineup this week!
RUNNING BACKS
Latavius Murray (Start, Flex), Ty’Son Williams (Sit), Le’Veon Bell (Sit), Devonta Freeman (Sit)
What a headache this backfield has become. Just two weeks ago, Ty’Son Williams appeared to be the lead back for one of the league’s top rushing offenses. However, he was a healthy scratch last week, allowing Latavius Murray to step into the role as the team’s primary ball carrier.
We don’t know what role, if any, Devonta Freeman will play going forward, but here’s an interesting tidbit: in his first game as an active member of the Ravens, Le’Veon Bell was the only running back targeted in the passing game last week. For these reasons, even though Murray enters Week 5 as the apparent go-to guy in the ground game, we can’t recommend starting him as anything more than a flex option this week. Sit the others; their floors are too low, and their ceilings in this messy, crowded, ever-evolving timeshare just aren’t worth the stress.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Marquise Brown (Start, WR3), Sammy Watkins (Sit), Devin Duvernay (Sit), James Proche (Sit), Mark Andrews (Start)
Marquise Brown started the season as impressively as he finished last season but gave us all a scare with a Week 3 dud against the Detroit Lions, a day the entire Ravens offense would like to forget. Brown piled up 19 or more PPR fantasy points in each of his other three games, so fire him up as a strong WR3 with WR2 upside this week.
Interestingly, Sammy Watkins is the only Ravens WR to record at least 7 targets in every game so far. He’s overdue for his annual spike game, but is that a risk we want to take with our flex spot? Probably not. The former fourth overall pick of the Buffalo Bills has failed to score 9 or more PPR points in two of his last three contests.
Meanwhile, a pair of second-year wide receivers, David Duvernay and James Proche, each saw 6 passes thrown their way last week. If Lamar Jackson isn’t going to ignore them, then neither can we. Unfortunately, we just can’t start either with confidence until they show us that we should. Mark Andrews, on the other hand, is a set-it-and-forget-it starter this week against a Colts defense that gave up 57 yards and a touchdown to Mike Gesicki last week, despite injuries to the Dolphins’ wide receiving corps and a backup quarterback under center.