Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 10th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
Betting Odds: TB -10, 48 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Miami Dolphins
QUARTERBACK
Jacoby Brissett (Sit*)
You aren’t starting Jacoby Brissett in a 1 QB league unless you had some really bad luck come your way in a very deep league. However, he may be a sneaky good play in 2 QB leagues and DFS. The 10 point spread is possibly being generous to the Dolphins as this could very well be a blowout, but it may have more to do with the current state of the Tampa Bay secondary. Outside of their game against Atlanta, the coverage has been leaky and Richard Sherman, if he comes back to form at all, will still need time to acclimate. Bruce Arians confirmed that DBs Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting are still not going to be back “anytime soon,” so this may give way to a high-end QB2 performance from Brissett.
RUNNING BACKS
Myles Gaskin (Sit), Malcolm Brown (Sit), Salvon Ahmed (Sit)
As much as you can throw on the Bucs, you still don’t run against them. The Bucs use a 3-4 front under Todd Bowles with Vita Vea clogging the middle at NT and rotational DI Rakeem Nunez-Roches having his best season to date in his 7th year as a pro, 4th with Tampa. Myles Gaskin is the highest rated of the group in the RB4 range, but none of these backs will be very useful for the first three quarters and carry little overall value. If you needed to squeeze in a back, you’re just hoping for garbage time points via dump-offs, maybe a late touchdown; and Gaskin is the most all-around back they have. Salvon Ahmed could steal some of those touches if the game is too out of hand, but as long as Miami can keep this anywhere near the spread, Gaskin would be the end of the bench starter. Malcom Brown offers almost no value in this game as he has a grand total of two targets all year, compared to Gaskin’s group leading 15 targets.
WIDE RECEIVERS / TIGHT ENDS
Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR2), DeVante Parker (Start, Flex), Preston Williams (Sit), Albert Wilson (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE1)
Will Fuller is out. That may be the best possible situation for DeVante Parker managers as he will continue to see his downfield targets accumulate. While he did pop up on the injury report with a shoulder injury, from all accounts, it’s nothing serious and could be more of a rest day. There’s been a lot of talks this week about getting him involved early, and with that weakened secondary, Parker could be in line for a big day. Nine targets in his last two games still has me playing it safe and using him in a Flex, but I would feel comfortable if I needed to use him as my WR2.
Jaylen Waddle has been their target hog the last two weeks, catching 12 of 13 targets, but only accumulating 58 yards. The speed of Tampa’s LBs gives me pause, but overall, Waddle should be seeing close to 10 targets in this game as they play catch up. If he can just break out one or two long passes or a touchdown, his PPR scoring should easily support WR2 numbers. Mike Gesicki is one of the best starts of the week. The Bucs have been largely susceptible to TE scoring, allowing 28 catches on 33 targets for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns. Unlike the Ravens who have played against almost the entire elite tier of TEs, the Bucs have faced comparable opponents to Gesicki. The “worst” fantasy game of the bunch was against the Rams as Tyler Higbee recorded 5 catches on 5 targets for 40 yards and a TD. Even if he can’t get in the end zone, he should still have a solid PPR showing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady (Start, QB1)
He may not be needed a whole lot in the 4th quarter, maybe even in the late 3rd, but Tom Brady is going to be just fine against the Dolphins. They will need to build the lead before they can sit on it and a 300 yard, 3 touchdown performance may end up being conservative. In a similar spot at home against Atlanta in week 2, Brady threw for just 276 yards, but had FIVE touchdowns. He should be in any lineup you have this week and if Miami stays in it, he may be THE QB1. Last week in New England was a poor game but given the conditions, you can just leave it out when projecting this week. If you want to consider it a bounce back, I’m sure Tom is with you, using it as even more motivation for this week.
RUNNING BACKS
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2), Ronald Jones (Sit), Gio Bernard (Sit)
Leonard Fournette has out touched Ronald Jones on a nearly three to one ratio, highlighted by a 19 to 2 target difference. The backfield is clearly Fournette’s to own and he is having one of his best starts to his career. He is on pace to shatter his season high in targets and is RB26 despite scoring zero touchdowns. If Tampa can get ahead, they’ll be trusting Fournette to help hold the lead. he should be close to RB1 returns this week if he can just find the end zone. The Dolphins have given up three 100 yard games to Damien Harris, Peyton Barber, and Jonathan Taylor while also allowing 86 yards to Devin Singletary; the four averaged well over 5 ypc.
Despite having a solid second half last season, it appears Jones will never get full time work under Arians. He could find some garbage time work, but even then, it’s unlikely he would find pay dirt. Unless something were to happen to Fournette, he’s just a high value handcuff with minimal standalone value for the time being. Giovani Bernard would normally be in line for late work as well, but he is recovering from injury and there is no reason to rush him back for this game. If he does play, it won’t be anywhere near his 10 target performance in week 3, most likely it would similar to week one when he had two catches on three targets.
WIDE RECEIVERS / TIGHT ENDS
Mike Evans (Sit), Antonio Brown (Start, Flex), Chris Godwin (Start, WR1), Tyler Johnson (Sit), Cameron Brate (Sit)
This game feels more like a 4/25/0 kind of Mike Evans game that he likes to jam into his game logs on occasion. He’ll most likely draw coverage from Xavien Howard, the Dolphins lockdown corner and Tom Brady will have zero incentive to force anything as the game should not be very close. The CB playing opposite him, the Dolphins’ 2020 high-priced free agent pickup Byron Jones said of Howard, “Last year we gave him all of the hard covers. And he showed up. Not only did he show up. He excelled.” Evans is still worth a start in your Flex if you are choosing between players like Kenny Golladay and Robby Anderson, but he could struggle to break the top 50 Flex players.
The beneficiary to Evans drawing Howard would be Antonio Brown. He will continue to play outside, drawing coverage from Jones, and should be able to build on last week’s 11 target performance. His targets have varied wildly this year (3,7,11), but if he can find a sustainable average of around seven targets with a 62% catch percentage and a touchdown scattered in, he should remain a WR2 or Flex start every week.
The most success WRs have had against the Dolphins, has been from the slot. Tampa Bay just so happens to have Chris Godwin, one of the leagues’ best slot receivers, and we just saw Jakobi Meyers, Cole Beasley, Hunter Renfrow, and Zach Pascal combine for 19 catches on 24 targets in their respective games against Miami, though Renfrow holds the only touchdown. Prioritizing getting him into your lineups, and hope Miami stays close enough to force Tampa into throwing all game.
Cameron Brate is filling in for Rob Gronkowski and is just barely a sit. Brate could easily return low end TE1 value as he’s shown great rapport with Brady through their Super Bowl run and received 6 targets last week against New England, one of the best in the league at defending the TE position. If you have a shallow TE room, don’t take this as a call to look elsewhere, he’s a solid start, just not a lock for a TE1 in part because of the possible game script.