Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 10th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Betting Odds: MIN -7.5, 49 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Sit)
Another week in the books, another disappointing performance from Jared Goff and the Lions. Goff ended the day with above-average numbers (299 passing yards and two TDs), but miscues in the red zone may have cost the team a shot at victory. Detroit drove into the red zone on each of their first three drives with the first ending in a fumble when the center snapped the ball before Goff was ready and the third ending with a strip-sack and another lost fumble. Goff doesn’t have great weapons at the WR position and is behind an offensive line that has lost two quality players in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow. The Lions will likely be behind often late in games giving Goff opportunities to accumulate “garbage-time” stats, but he simply isn’t a reliable enough option for fantasy managers every week. Bench Goff this week.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Start, Flex)
Well, after all the talk from HC Dan Campbell about D’Andre Swift playing well enough to earn more playing time Swift saw just eight carries in the loss to Chicago. Swift remains a vital part of Detroit’s passing game, however, keeping him viable in PPR leagues. Swift did struggle to find running room against Chicago, mustering just 16 yards on his carries but did haul in four receptions for 33 yards. Given the state of Detroit’s WRs, I don’t see any indication that Swift’s usage in the passing game will decline but fantasy managers would like to see him used more in the running game. If Detroit continues to trail in games, and it looks like that might be the case often this season, Swift should still return plenty of value for fantasy managers. Look for Swift to land in the lower end of the RB1 ranks this week against Minnesota.
Jamaal Williams had much more success on the ground than Swift last week which is likely why the team continued to feature Williams over Swift as the game progressed. Williams saw 14 carries on the day and converted those attempts into 66 yards but was not targeted in the passing game. This situation is a full-blown RBBC and, despite Campbell’s claims otherwise before last week’s game, doesn’t look like it will be anything else as long as both players stay healthy. Williams’s lack of passing game involvement keeps him below Swift in PPR leagues but he still carries enough value as a runner to be a viable Flex option given the spate of injuries at the position this season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Quintez Cephus (Sit), Kalif Raymond (Sit), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Sit), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE1)
There’s not much to write home about when discussing Detroit’s WRs but they have established Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond, and Amon-Ra St. Brown as the clear-cut top three for the team. Unfortunately for the three, Goff’s limitations as a passer along with the preference to target Swift or T.J. Hockenson primarily in the passing game severely limits their upside. All three WRs did have double-digit PPR games last week and Raymond shined with two TDs, but it’s next to impossible to predict which, if any, will command the largest share of the passing pie in any game. All three have Flex upside but I can’t confidently recommend any of them until one starts to separate from the rest either through talent or gaining more of a rapport with Goff. Tread lightly if trusting any of these guys in your starting lineups this week.
After two weeks of easy TE1 production, Hockenson has been a bit of a disappointment each of the last two weeks although he did get back to a solid target share in Week 4. Hockenson is easily Detroit’s most talented pass-catching option but seems to have become the focus of opposing defenses. Baltimore even went so far as to double-team Hockenson in their Week 3 matchup. Hockenson is still going to see targets and should remain in the TE1 conversation simply because of the minimal production from the position across the NFL, but fantasy managers might not be as comfortable rolling him out every week as earlier in the season. The volume will be there and Hockenson should once again finish as a solid TE1 in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (Sit)
It seems like a no-brainer to start a solid QB against a struggling defense, but the Lions have quietly been pretty good against opposing QBs. Kirk Cousins comes into this game playing extremely well through his first four games with 1,121 passing yards and a 9:1 TD: INT ratio. He’s had three multi-TD games and surpassed 300 yards in two. He has weapons at all the skill positions and plays within himself. However, given the expected outcome (a fairly easy Minnesota victory) and the stats of QBs facing the Lions this season, Cousins warrants a second look as a starting option. Detroit allows an average of 267 passing yards and fewer than two TDs to opposing QBs and has been generous to opposing RBs to the tune of 111 yards and more than one TD per game. Cousins could certainly finish in the low-QB1 range, but if the game gets out of hand the air will be taken out of the football and the ground game will salt away the victory.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook (Start, RB1), Alexander Mattison (Sit)
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for fantasy managers with Dalvin Cook on their rosters. Cook looked every bit of the bell-cow RB fantasy managers expected him to be through the first two weeks with 20+ carries in each game and 10 targets combined. Cook amassed 252 yards through those first two games and scored one TD. An ankle injury forced him to miss Minnesota’s Week 3 game, but he was active heading into Week 4 in relief to fantasy managers. Cook was limited to 33 snaps (49.3%) last week and left briefly with issues surrounding his ankle. There have been no reports of any setbacks with the injury, so I’m going to assume a full workload for Cook and that results in him returning to his RB1 status this week. Fantasy managers with Cook on their rosters will want to monitor reports coming out of practices this week, but no news is good news.
Minnesota has the luxury of having one of the best backup RBs in the NFL in Alexander Mattison. Mattison proved that in Week 3 when he totaled 171 yards on 32 touches in relief of Cook and the offense didn’t miss a beat. When Cook is fully healthy, however, Mattison barely sees the field and rarely touches the ball making him virtually irrelevant for fantasy managers. Mattison did see some time last week when Cook left for a brief period with ankle issues, but still only saw 23 snaps (34.3%) for the game. If Cook is healthy, and indications to this point are he is, then Mattison is a no-go for fantasy managers. If reports come out that Cook is injured or limited in practice, Mattison becomes a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR1), Adam Thielen (Start, WR2), K.J. Osborn (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Sit)
After an explosive rookie campaign that earned him Rookie of the Year honors, Justin Jefferson is picking up right where he left out in 2020. Through three games, Jefferson leads the team in targets (37), receptions (26), receiving yards (338), and is second in receiving TDs (3). Jefferson is a matchup nightmare and Detroit is thin in the secondary, adding to his appeal. Even in a game that projects to require less from Minnesota’s passing game, Jefferson should see enough targets to finish as a WR1. Jefferson is a solid starting option this week and fantasy managers should plug him in without worry.
If Jefferson is the clear #1 in Minnesota then Adam Thielen is just as clearly the #2. Thielen is second to Jefferson in every category except for receiving TDs as Thielen has one more than Jefferson. Thielen is seeing targets in line with his Pro Bowl years and has been converting targets into receptions at a higher rate than he has the last two seasons. Despite the volume, Thielen has seen a precipitous drop in yards per reception and Average Depth of Target this season which lowers his ceiling a bit. Thielen is still enough of the passing game to warrant fantasy consideration, but he looks more like a solid WR2 or great Flex option this week.
K.J. Osborn was a waiver wire darling after two weeks of heavy involvement in Minnesota’s offense, but his contributions have dwindled the past two weeks to the tune of nine targets resulting in five receptions for 52 yards. It could be argued he’s fallen behind Tyler Conklin in the pecking order and that makes him a risky option for fantasy managers relying on him in their starting lineups. If Cousins sees fewer attempts as I expect, I don’t see a way for Osborn to make enough of his limited opportunities to warrant starting this week.
Conklin has seen an increased role in the passing game this season compared to his first three with the team and he is on pace to shatter his career highs in every statistical category. Despite his growing role within the offense, I don’t think this is a game where Coklin will get enough opportunities to crack the starting lineup for most fantasy managers.