Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 29th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Betting Odds: Carolina -2.5, 49 total via Oddsshark
Network: NFLN, FOX, AMZN
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Matt Ryan (Start, low-end QB1)
Back in Week 5, Matt Ryan struggled in his worst game of 2020 completing 21 of 37 attempts for 226 yards with no TDs and tossing one INT against this same Carolina defense. Now, Ryan was without Julio Jones in that matchup but the Panthers have been stingy against opposing QBs all season. Carolina has allowed just one 300-yard passer this season and has allowed more than one passing TD just three times. Jones has popped up on the injury report with a hip issue, so monitor news coming from Atlanta beat writers with the game tonight. Carolina is not a great matchup but is not a terrible one either and Ryan should sneak into the lower end of the QB1 ranks in Week 8 and is a fine start for fantasy managers.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (Start, RB2), Brian Hill (Sit)
Carolina’s defenses have been the gift that keeps on giving to the RB position and Todd Gurley found success against them in Week 5 as he rumbled for a season-high 121 yards along with one TD while contributing four receptions for 29 yards as well. Gurley has been a reliable option for fantasy managers so far in 2020 with at least one TD in all but two games and has been more of a factor in the passing game in the last three weeks. Gurley’s biggest negative is the fact that Atlanta regularly utilizes four RBs, thus cutting into his snaps and opportunities. Gurley still sees the majority of snaps (57%), but for the season Brian Hill has seen 26% of the snaps, Ito Smith 14.8%, and Keith Smith 18.8%. Despite the juicy matchup, Gurley is best viewed as a solid RB2 option with RB1 upside for fantasy managers in Week 8.
Hill and the two Smiths are primarily utilized by Atlanta to keep Gurley fresh and minimize the wear and tear on his problematic knee. Hill sees the most opportunities but not enough to make him anything more than a desperation flex for fantasy managers tonight simply due to the matchup. Smith and Smith are not fantasy relevant due to their limited roles in the offense. Avoid both this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Julio Jones (Start, WR1), Calvin Ridley (Start, WR2), Russell Gage (Start, Flex), Hayden Hurst (Start, low-end TE1)
When Julio Jones is healthy, he is as dominant a WR as there is in the NFL. The problem for fantasy managers is navigating the injuries that seem to plague him every season. Jones has put together two solid games but a hip issue has surfaced this week putting his status for tonight’s game in doubt. As of this writing there doesn’t appear to be too much concern of Jones missing tonight’s contest, but one wrong step or awkward fall could sideline him. Despite the injury concerns, fantasy managers simply can’t bench Jones if he’s starting given the upside. Carolina has been susceptible to allowing decent games to WRs allowing 100+ yards or 1+ receiving TDs in every game except one this season. Jones is a WR1 tonight as long as he can manage the injury and is a must-start for fantasy managers.
In Week 5 without Jones drawing attention from the defense Calvin Ridley shredded Carolina’s defense to the tune of eight receptions for 136 yards and a WR1 finish for fantasy managers in PPR leagues. If you can overlook the goose-egg against Green Bay in Week 4, Ridley has been on the WR1 cusp every week garnering four weeks of 100+ receiving yards along with four weeks with at least one receiving TD. Ridley hasn’t been as productive as Jones the last two weeks but is still a reliable option for Ryan and is involved in the passing game every week generally seeing 7-11 targets a game. Ridley has the upside to be a WR1 in Week 8 but is better viewed as a WR2 given Ryan’s penchant for targeting Jones in recent weeks.
Russell Gage has been tough to pin down for fantasy managers this season as his production has been wildly inconsistent. Gage was an integral part of the offense the first two weeks of the season collecting 21 targets and converting them into 15 receptions for 160 yards and one TD. Gage suffered a concussion in Week 3 against Chicago and has been almost unreliable since commanding just 22 targets over the team’s last five games. Gage has popped up on the injury report with a knee issue but it doesn’t appear as if it will prevent Gage from playing his normal allotment of snaps tonight. Gage is hard to trust as anything higher than a WR3 or Flex option tonight for fantasy managers given his recent production.
Fantasy managers who drafted Hayden Hurst based on the assumption he would have similar success as Austin Hooper in 2019. Hurst has been up-and-down this season and had his worst game as a Falcon in the team’s Week 5 game against Carolina with two receptions for eight yards and no TDs. Hurst has seen his involvement in the offense grow since that game, however, and has a chance to creep into the low-end TE1 conversation tonight. Are there better options for fantasy managers in Week 8? Yes, but Hurst should provide a decent floor and can be counted on as a low-end TE1 tonight for fantasy managers.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater (Start, QB1)
It’s astounding how often the Falcons have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory this season. Part of that can be attributed to the struggles they have had in containing opposing QBs. Atlanta is ahead of only Seattle in passing yards allowed per game at 333.4 and they have surrendered a league-worst 19 passing TDs. Teddy Bridgewater is this week’s lucky winner in the QB sweepstakes and is in line for another strong performance. In Week 5, Bridgewater passed for 313 yards and two TDs against Atlanta and looks primed for a similar game tonight. Oh, and there is an increasing buzz that Christian McCaffrey might return for this game, but more on him later. Bridgewater should be one of the top 10 QBs in Week 8 and is a solid starter for fantasy managers.
Running Backs
Mike Davis (Start, low-end RB1), Christian McCaffrey (Sit)
First, let’s start with what we know right now. Mike Davis is going to continue to be a part of Carolina’s offensive gameplan. Since taking over for McCaffrey, Davis has been a consistent producer for fantasy managers and has been almost as involved as McCaffrey, pre-injury. Davis had his best game of the season back in Week 5 against Atlanta with a combined 149 yards and one TD on 25 touches. The RB2 ranking is based on the assumption McCaffrey is going to play and will limit Davis’s upside. If news comes out that McCaffrey is going to miss or will be limited then Davis becomes a low-end RB1 option. Fantasy managers should get one more week of solid production from Davis tonight as no worse than an RB2 with RB1 upside based on McCaffrey’s status.
Now for perhaps the biggest conundrum of Week 8; What to do with Christian McCaffrey? There were rumors early of a potential return this week but the fact that the game is on Thursday put some doubt into whether or not McCaffrey and/or the team would be best served to wait one more week and give the superstar RB 10 more days to get fully healthy. As of this writing, McCaffrey had practiced on Tuesday and the team was waiting to see how he responded on Wednesday. I’m hopeful we get some word before this is published and we can give a more clear projection of how the RB touches will shake out. As of now, I’m expecting McCaffrey to play in a limited fashion. This will hold Davis’s value in the RB2 area and make McCaffrey a minorly risky Flex option for fantasy managers. McCaffrey has shown he can do damage on limited touches, but it has to be assumed he won’t be in full football shape after such a long layoff. Unless you have a clearly better option, slot McCaffrey in as your Flex tonight.
UPDATE: News Thursday morning isn’t nearly as optimistic as it was on Tuesday and Wednesday. Reports are circulating citing sources close to the situation that McCaffrey WILL NOT be activated for tonight’s game. Fantasy managers are now looking at a Week 9 return for McCaffrey. Bump Davis up to a low-end RB1 with this news.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Robby Anderson (Start, WR1), D.J. Moore (Start, WR2), Curtis Samuel (Sit, Deep Flex), Ian Thomas (Sit)
Remember when Robby Anderson was a boom/bust guy that was solely a deep threat as a member of the New York Jets? Well, it’s probably not surprising that the Jets didn’t utilize his skill properly and Anderson is flourishing in Carolina after being reunited with his college coach, Matt Rhule, at Temple. Anderson’s biggest knock so far this season is his lack of TDs. Anderson has been targeted fewer than eight times just twice and saw his largest target total (12) against Atlanta in Week 5 in which he had eight receptions for 112 yards. Anderson leads the team in targets (59), receptions (46), and receiving yards (640) and is a vital part of the passing offense. We already know the Falcons are a sieve on defense against the pass which should make Anderson a solid WR1 for fantasy managers tonight.
D.J. Moore has been the model of consistency the last three weeks accumulating 93 receiving yards in each game. Moore has also found the end zone three times over that span and is rounding into the fantasy asset many hoped for before the start of the season. Anderson has provided some competition for Moore in the target and reception department as Moore is averaging around eight targets and four receptions per game. Moore did have one of his three TDs against Atlanta in Week 5, so there is TD upside with Moore this week as well. Anderson looks like the better play given the season-to-date production but Moore is certainly in play as a viable WR2 tonight. Fantasy managers can start Moore as a WR2 tonight.
Curtis Samuel found the end zone for the first time this season last week, but not in the traditional way for a WR. Samuel lined up in the backfield and squeezed through an off tackle for a five-yard TD. Samuel was third in the pecking order with McCaffrey out and may drop to fourth tonight if McCaffrey plays a significant number of snaps. Still, the matchup with Atlanta’s defense makes any WR an option and Samuel might provide some deep Flex appeal for fantasy managers in large leagues.
Ian Thomas has been an afterthought in Carolina’s offense this season with just 12 targets so far. Thomas did find the end zone against Arizona in Week 4 but has otherwise been nearly non-existent in the other six games. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a viable TE option this week.
Snap counts courtesy of Fantasy Data.
-Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter)