Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1st at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Betting Odds: LAR -4, 46 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Start, QB2)
Jared Goff is a good quarterback. He’s not great, and he’s certainly not matchup proof. He scored just under 17 points against the Bears defense last week, which is fine but with his weapons, you’d really like more. So here he is, entering a matchup against a terrible Miami defense, and he’s listed as a QB2? Oh, wait, what’s that? Miami’s defense has actually been good this year? Bet you weren’t expecting that.
Miami has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. They’ve allowed the 2nd fewest TDs through the air and their 17 sacks are also in the top half of all NFL teams. That’s pretty good considering just how terrible they were last year.
So this matchup isn’t as good as most people think it is. Don’t get me wrong – Miami is not the 1985 Bears or the 2000 Ravens, but they’re a surprisingly solid unit that is well-coached and won’t get pushed around easily. I’d expect Goff to do about the same he did in Week 7, with maybe a bit more upside.
Running Backs
Darrell Henderson (Start, Flex), Malcolm Brown (Sit), Cam Akers (Sit)
Everything I said above about how good the Dolphins’ defense has been this season? It doesn’t quite apply to the running backs. Miami has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to RBs this season, thanks to a 5.0 YPC against which ranks third-worst in the league. 8 touchdowns allowed on the ground is 11th worst in the league, and Los Angeles has one of the best offensive lines in the league, so there is certainly an avenue to exploit if the Rams want to do so.
In Week 7 we saw, once again, that Darrell Henderson is the man getting the majority of the touches in this backfield. He did go down at one point in the 3rd quarter and missed the following series, but he ended up returning to the field and as of writing is not listed on the injury report. Expect him to get the majority of the carries once again in this one, and he’s got good value as a Flex option.
In Henderson’s absence, Malcolm Brown was the next man up, but unless Henderson goes down again then Brown is tough to trust in your starting lineup. Cam Akers is an afterthought at this point and shouldn’t be rostered anywhere except the deepest of leagues.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Robert Woods (Start, WR3), Cooper Kupp (Start, WR2), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Tyler Higbee (Sit), Gerald Everett (Sit)
In Week 7, Josh Reynolds actually led the team in targets as Robert Woods entered the game nursing a groin injury. Cooper Kupp was 2nd in targets, and he’s lining up against Nik Needham this week. Needham is Miami’s slot corner and his 42.6 rating by Pro Football Focus is among the worst grades by a corner this season. I like Kupp as a WR2 this week given the matchup.
Woods will be facing off against Xavien Howard, who has been fantastic this season with a PFF rating of 80. He should still see enough volume for a WR3 performance, just don’t expect WR1 numbers this week.
Tyler Higbee missed Week 7 with a hand injury and is currently questionable for Week 8. Even if he does play, Gerald Everett scored a TD last week and is the TE to roster in this offense at this point. Sit Higbee, and you can probably sit Everett too, considering the Dolphins have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Sit)
So… umm… why? For fantasy purposes, this one hurts. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the 26th best PPR fantasy player in 2020 through Week 8. No, that’s not QB26, that’s 26 overall. He’s been QB17 so far this year but did have a bye last week, and his 20 PPG as a QB is 13th best among QBs. So Fitzpatrick has been really good, the team has been a ton of fun to watch, they’re 3-3 and in the playoff hunt, but now is the time they make the switch to Tua Tagovailoa? Really? It just doesn’t seem fair.
Either way, now we’re here. A rookie QB, making his first NFL start against one of the best defenses in the league. A guy who dislocated his hip less than a year ago and now has to stand in the pocket with Aaron Donald barreling towards him. The Rams have not been kind to QBs this season, allowing the 26th most fantasy points to QBs while also racking up 24 sacks, good for 3rd most in the league. Miami’s offensive line has improved over last year, and it is better in the passing game than on the ground, but it’s still not great. There are too many risks here, and as a result, I’m not touching Tua with a ten-foot pole anywhere this week.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin (Sit, Flex), Matt Breida (Sit)
So the Rams are good against the pass. Guess what? They’re also pretty good against the run, too. Miami’s backfield has been led by Myles Gaskin this season, something that everyone obviously predicted after they went out and signed both Matt Breida and Jordan Howard in the offseason. Howard has been a non-factor, and while Breida has been getting more work lately, he’s still not fantasy relevant. Which leaves us with Gaskin. Averaging 4.1 YPC and over 4 receptions per game, he’s been getting a good amount of touches, however, he only has one of the five TDs the Dolphins have scored within 5 yards of the goalline. The touches in the red zone are simply going elsewhere, and that’s going to cap Gaskin’s output most weeks. Against a defense like the Rams, there’s simply not enough upside to recommend him as anything more than a bye week Flex fill in.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVante Parker (Start, WR3), Preston Williams (Sit), Mike Gesicki (Start, TE2)
DeVante Parker is most likely going to get stranded on Ramsey Island this week, and with only 11 targets over their past two games, he really hasn’t been producing enough to lean on regardless of matchup. He’s still one of those guys you’re going to start if he’s on your roster, but with Tua under center, there’s an enormous question mark of what this passing game will look like moving forward. Will he come anywhere near Fitzpatrick’s 70.1% completion rate? Will he show the same chemistry with Parker that Fitzpatrick has the last two seasons? If this game were against the Jets I’d give him the benefit of the doubt, but against Ramsey and the Rams, I’m just not comfortable relying on Parker to produce a big week.
Preston Williams has been better each of the past two weeks, scoring a TD in each game, however, eight total targets over that time still aren’t great and his fantasy output would be much worse if not for those TDs. The Rams have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, so between Parker and Williams, there is certainly cause for concern. As I said above for Parker, who knows how accurate Tua will be in his NFL debut, so roll the dice elsewhere.
The one matchup I do like this week is Mike Gesicki, who will be matched up against linebacker Kenny Young on Sunday. Young grades out as one of the worst coverage linebackers in the league according to Pro Football Focus, and if he’s forced to cover Gesicki out of the slot this week then I like Gesicki’s chances of receiving a healthy target share if Tua has to check down often. Yes, he’s been very hit or miss this season, but Gesicki is still an athletic freak who has the talent to go off on any given week. He’s a TE2 with upside in this one.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 on Twitter, iamatechnician on Reddit)