Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1st at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Betting Odds: TEN -4, 52.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Start, Borderline QB1/QB2)
Last week Ryan Tannehill salvaged his fantasy day with a comeback performance, centered around two passing touchdowns, against stingy Pittsburgh pass defense. This week things should get much easier for Tannehill as he sees the Bengals who allowed five passing touchdowns last week. If this game is as most expect, a comfortable Titans victory, Tannehill could be at risk of low volume and thus the potential for low fantasy points. Managers should hope they see the highly efficient Tannehill and a closer game than predicted. Tannehill is a low-end QB1 this week based on matchup but be aware that game script could push him as far down as a mid-range QB2 this week. He is worth the risk for me, however.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1)
Derrick Henry is RB4 in PPR formats and he may just be getting warmed up. In his career, as the weather gets colder, Henry has gotten stronger. Last season Henry has six games of 24+ fantasy points after Week 8, including three games over 30 points. Fire up Henry this week as a top 5 option, and ignore the Bengals neutral matchup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Start, WR1), Corey Davis (Start, Flex), Jonnu Smith (Start, TE1)
Since his return in Week 5, three weeks ago, A.J. Brown has looked just as dominant as he did to close out 2019. Brown has three straight top 12 weeks and scored in each game. Sure his efficiency is slightly down from last season but he looks unstoppable at times. Brown is an auto-start in a premier matchup. Corey Davis returned from a two-game absence due to Covid, and while his volumes were down, he still maintained his flex value. Davis is seeing targets, another ten last week, and he on the field in all situations. This week multiple receivers on the Titans could have productive days and he is an excellent flex option.
Since Brown’s return, Jonnu Smith has struggled to earn targets. Without Brown, Smith was seeing nearly seven targets a game and scored five times. Since his return, Smith is seeing just three targets and hasn’t scored. In such a small sample size, it could be an anomaly but managers will want to pay close attention to how involved Smith is this week. However, with the state of the position, Smith is still a top option and should be started without hesitation this week. The Bengals have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in just three weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Start, QB1)
Through just seven career starts, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is on pace to break several rookie records. Last week Burrow had his fifth 300+ passing game, closing in on Andrew Luck‘s record of six in 2012. He is also on pace for more than 4,600 yards passing, which would shatter Luck’s record of 4,374. The rookie record for passing touchdowns is also within reach (27, Baker Mayfield, 2018) as Burrow is on pace for 20. However, one important stat to be aware of is Burrow’s abysmal 3.1% touchdown rate, 26th among QBs. If that corrects itself to the 5.5% league average Burrow could easily hit that mark.
Fire up Burrow in your lineups this week as a low QB1 with upside. The Titans are allowing nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns to the position the last five weeks, including five straight multiple touchdowns games. This could be the best performance of Burrow’s young career, even if much of the work comes in garbage time.
Running Backs
Giovani Bernard (Start, RB2), Joe Mixon (Sit)
Bengals Joe Mixon missed Week 7 with a foot injury and managers should pay attention to his status this week. The Bengals are on a bye next week, so the team may decide to give Mixon extra rest rather than risking further injury. Gio Bernard stepped in last week and filled in nicely, finishing a top 12 option at the position. Bernard was active in the passing game, catching all five of his targets for 59 yards and a score. On the ground, he struggled but the team was also forced to pass the ball early and throughout. His 13 carries for 37 yards is about what owners can expect, perhaps a bit more but he won’t be a force on the ground this week against a solid Titans rush defense. If Mixon is out, as expected, managers can again start Gio as a top RB2 option for the week and hope for a large passing workload.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyler Boyd (Start, WR1), A.J. Green (Start, WR2), Tee Higgins (Start, Flex), Drew Sample (Sit, TE2)
This Bengals receiving corps has been tough to figure out week to week but also highly productive. However, heading into the season most fantasy managers would not have projected that Tyler Boyd would be WR9, rookie Tee Higgins would be WR25, with A.J. Green heating up. Green has scored 17.6 and 15.2 points his last two weeks and soaked up 24 targets in those games. All while Boyd and Higgins have maintained fantasy relevance. This week the Bengals see their best passing matchup on the year, against a Titans team ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Start all of your Bengals receivers this week, in what could be an explosive offensive performance. At tight end, Drew Sample did have a nice game last week but still just 10% of the team’s targets. His production can be attributed more to Burrow than his own play. He is a low-end TE2 if you are desperate.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog on Twitter)