Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 1st at 4:05 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: LAC -3, 44 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start)
Justin Herbert’s rookie campaign has been unbelievable so far. Most draft analysts spoke about how he needed some refinement in his game, but so far there haven’t been any rough edges to Herbert’s game. Herbert is ninth in the NFL in CPOE with a plus-4 (per NextGenStats). This is a difficult matchup for Herbert, but with the way he is playing, I wouldn’t look for a streamer. After this week, the Chargers’ schedule opens up and Herbert is looking like a QB1 the rest of the way.
Running Backs
Joshua Kelley (Start, Flex), Justin Jackson (Sit)
Before the Chargers’ bye week, Justin Jackson handled the majority of the backfield touches against the Saints. This past week, the script was flipped and Joshua Kelley handled the bulk of the work. Kelley had 12 rush attempts and five targets while Jackson saw five rushes and six targets. With the Chargers likely playing from ahead against the Broncos, I expect Kelley to lead the backfield in touches again. The Broncos defense is eighth in run defense (by DVOA per Football Outsiders), so Kelley is more as a flex option this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, TE1)
Herbert has been a boon to Keenan Allen. Allen is now eighth in the NFL in WOPR (per airyards.com) and seventh in the NFL in targets. The only thing that has held him back is the lack of touchdowns, but those will eventually come to someone seeing that type of volume. Mike Williams again finds himself as a boom or bust deep threat. But he is still worth a roster spot because as we saw against the Saints if Allen misses anytime Williams sees a spike in volume. Hunter Henry is seventh among TEs in target share and eighth in air yards (per airyards.com). Henry will continue to be a mid to lower TE1.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Drew Lock (Sit)
Drew Lock has struggled in his second season. He has a negative-5.1 CPOE (per NextGenStats), which is worse than all but Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel, Dwayne Haskins, and Sam Darnold (not the best company). Against a strong Chargers defense (12th against the pass by DVOA per Football Outsiders), Lock should remain on your league’s waivers.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, Flex), Philip Lindsay (Sit)
Melvin Gordon has been a decent fantasy play as long as Philip Lindsay has been hurt. If you caught any of the Broncos games the last two weeks, you would probably agree that Lindsay has been the more impressive back. Unfortunately, Lindsay sustained a concussion last week and there are currently no reports on his status for Sunday’s game. Gordon isn’t much more than a volume-based RB2 at best (without Lindsay) on a below-average offense. Gordon is marked as a flex here due to the Chargers’ solid defense.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Sit), Tim Patrick (Sit), Noah Fant (Sit)
With several rookie WRs already breaking out, we are all still waiting for Jerry Jeudy to join them. Jeudy led the Broncos’ receivers in snaps at week but without Courtland Sutton on the field or Noah Fant fully healthy, Jeudy has been the focus of the opposing defense’s attention. Jeudy should be kept on the bench until we see some signs of life. Tim Patrick is the Broncos’ leader in air yards and has gotten Sutton’s role. In the right matchup, Patrick can be a boom or bust flex play but there is a higher chance of bust this week. Fant is a bit tricky this week as if you have him, he’s most likely your best option at TE. But Fant was clearly hobbling last week and limped off the field multiple times still bothered by his ankle. Fant likely won’t be able to provide his ceiling while still dealing with the injury, so I would try to find a streaming option.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList on Twitter, Zzzonked92 on Reddit)